How U.S. Immigration Policy Is Reshaping Mexico's Manufacturing Sector

Forbes

4 days ago

Jorge Gonzalez Henrichsen, Head of Business Development and Co-CEO at The Nearshore Company.
If there's one thing the past few months have made clear, it's this: U.S. immigration policy doesn't just affect the U.S.—it reverberates throughout the entire North American labor ecosystem. And for Mexico, that means real changes in workforce availability, skill composition and long-term nearshoring strategy.
As someone who's spent the past two decades helping companies navigate manufacturing expansion into Mexico, I do see what's happening on the ground—and I believe there's a story here worth paying attention to.
A Silver Lining In Today's Landscape
Recent changes in U.S. immigration enforcement have led to an increase in deportations and a decline in unlawful border crossings. That reality is displacing many foreign-born workers, many of whom are from Mexico and had been living and working in the U.S.
Where do they go? For many, the answer is simple: back to Mexico. And while I wouldn't go so far as to say they're all heading straight into manufacturing jobs, a portion of this returning workforce—particularly those with basic education or technical skills—are likely to be absorbed by Mexico's growing manufacturing industry.
For years, many people in Mexico looked north to the U.S. as an opportunity for upward mobility. But today, with legal paths narrowing and risk rising, many are choosing to stay and find work in Mexico. That shift is subtle, but powerful. It's keeping more skilled workers in Mexico, where they're now in high demand.
The Rise Of The Middle-Skill Workforce
In manufacturing, the biggest labor bottleneck isn't always engineering talent or PhDs. In my experience, it's what we call 'middle-skill' workers, such as machine operators and supervisors. Roughly 130,000 students graduate each year from technical and engineering programs in Mexico, according to a TechCrunch article.
These could be some of the very people who once saw emigration to the U.S. as a sure path to prosperity. Today, however, that equation is shifting. Mexico's domestic job market is heating up—driven by nearshoring, U.S. trade policy and shifting supply chains—and that's creating stronger incentives to build a career at home.
Why It Matters Now
Since early April, when new tariffs and trade realignments were announced in the U.S., we've spoken with many manufacturers from the U.S., Asia and even Europe who are re-evaluating Mexico as a central node in their supply chain strategy. That renewed attention brings opportunity—but it also brings pressure. Mexico must be ready, and that means understanding the talent landscape as it evolves in real time.
There's a temptation to frame Mexico as the U.S.'s 'backyard'—a place for outsourced labor and low-cost fulfillment. But I've come to embrace the metaphor in a different way: Every well-functioning home needs a clean, efficient, well-organized backyard. The tools, the storage, the space—it all matters. And right now, I believe Mexico is positioned to play a pivotal and high-capacity role in North America's industrial landscape, though there are a few best practices manufacturers will need to keep in mind.
A Few Words Of Advice
For manufacturers looking to expand into Mexico, make sure you don't take action blindly. Workforce availability is improving, yes, but it's still regionally uneven. Consider your site selection carefully. Look to regions with strong technical education pipelines and infrastructure. And make sure your strategy includes not just labor cost savings but also long-term talent development.
The immigration debate in the U.S. will continue, but in the meantime, the ripple effects are creating new possibilities on Mexico's side of the border. For those of us paying attention, that's more than a headline—it's an opportunity to plan, build and move forward.
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