Daily Debrief: What Happened Today (May 26)
Stories you might have missed
Asean must strengthen external ties in new growth areas, even as integration continues: PM Wong
[KUALA LUMPUR] Asean must deepen and expand its external partnerships, especially in new growth areas, even as it steps up its own internal integration, said Prime Minister Lawrence Wong on Monday (May 26).
Asia's rich trim US exposure, head to Europe amid tariff turmoil
[SINGAPORE] Asian private banking clients sprang into action over the past month, refusing to sit idle when faced with the whiplash in global financial markets caused by the tariff turmoil. Individuals have been rebalancing their portfolios, according to some senior private bankers, whose clients each have at least S$2 million in investible assets.
Front-loading drives Singapore's factory output growth, which slows to 5.9% in April but far exceeds estimates
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[SINGAPORE] Front-loading activity amid uncertainty over US President Donald Trump's tariffs supported Singapore's industrial production growth in April, economists said after the latest prints were released on Monday (May 26).
Malaysia's Anwar writes Trump seeking summit with South-east Asia
[KUALA LUMPUR] Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said he has written a letter to United States President Donald Trump to request a meeting between the US and the Association of South-east Asian Nations over Washington's trade policies.
Less than 75% of fresh graduates from private institutions secure jobs within 6 months
[SINGAPORE] Fewer than three in four fresh graduates from private education institutions found employment within six months of graduation, based on the Private Education Institution Graduate Employment Survey 2023/2024 released by SkillsFuture Singapore on Monday.
Park Hotel Management and Allen Law's legal battle results in landmark High Court judgment for insolvency law
[SINGAPORE] Former Park Hotel Management director Allen Law, who is being sued by liquidators of the company, has failed to reduce his potential liabilities by S$6.8 million after the High Court rejected his application to amend his defence and introduce a counterclaim.
Hillcrest Arcadia's S$920 million en bloc tender closes with no bids
[SINGAPORE] The collective sale of Bukit Timah condominium Hillcrest Arcadia has moved into private treaty talks, after a tender closed on Thursday with no bids.
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Business Times
38 minutes ago
- Business Times
Asean's export rush wanes as tariff clock ticks down
[SINGAPORE/KUALA LUMPUR/HANOI/JAKARTA] South-east Asia's export boom may be running on borrowed time as traders rush to front-load goods ahead of the end of US President Donald Trump's 90-day tariff pause on Jul 9, masking signs of fading momentum. While April's export data climbed year on year across much of the region, a closer look reveals a month-on-month slowdown that is already hitting Thailand, Vietnam and the Philippines, with the rest of South-east Asia likely to follow by the second half of the year. April trade figures suggest not just front-loading, but also a possible rerouting of US-destined China-origin goods through Asean economies, said Nomura analysts Rob Subbaraman and Toh Si Ying. Such front-loading means Asian export growth in the second quarter of the year could be stronger than projected, noted the duo in a May 28 report. But they warned that this may just be 'a brief respite before an Asian export slump in H2, driven by the inevitable payback from front-loading and an overall slowdown in global trade activity caused by the highest US tariff rates in over 80 years and historically high business uncertainty'. The major exporters in trade-reliant South-east Asia – Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam and Singapore – face a looming slowdown. On the other hand, the Philippines – a net importer – saw front-loading taper off early. It could ultimately benefit from trade diversion and a potential US deal, as tariffs position its goods to become more competitive. The Business Times breaks down how the shifting trade tide is unfolding across the region. A NEWSLETTER FOR YOU Friday, 8.30 am Asean Business Business insights centering on South-east Asia's fast-growing economies. Sign Up Sign Up Singapore: surge now, strain later Singapore's non-oil domestic exports surged 12.4 per cent in April – the fastest pace since July 2024 – driven by gains in both electronics and non-electronics, with the former buoyed by current tariff exemptions. The surprise jump was largely driven by front-loading, as exporters raced to capitalise on the tariff pause and get ahead of looming sector-specific duties on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors. The current boost is 'really no consolation', as advanced sales mean that exports will slow when markets have stocked up, said Deputy Prime Minister Gan Kim Yong recently as he gave an update on the work of the Singapore Economic Resilience Taskforce. Gan, who leads Singapore's tariff talks with the US, said Washington is open to discussion on 'some form of concession' in the impending sectoral tariffs, though it will not budge on the baseline 10 per cent duty. Economists warned of medium to long-term risks amid uncertainty over Trump's next move, though sentiment has improved with the unexpectedly swift easing of US-China trade tensions, said UOB's Jester Koh. But OCBC chief economist Selena Ling warned that whether the two players can reach a permanent trade deal remains to be seen. DBS senior economist Chua Han Teng flagged that global trade frictions remain elevated compared to pre-Trump 2.0 which could be a drag on Singapore's 2025 exports, though likely less severe than earlier feared. — ELYSIA TAN Malaysia: trade momentum meets tariff jitters Malaysia's exports rose 16.4 per cent year on year to RM133.6 billion (S$40.5 billion) in April, as exporters rushed to beat a now-delayed US tariff hike. The jump, from RM114.7 billion a year earlier, was led by a 9.1 per cent rise in domestic exports and a 46 per cent surge in re-exports, driven by strong global demand for electrical and electronic products. Electrical and electronic exports, led by semiconductors and data processing equipment, jumped 35.4 per cent year on year, marking five straight months of double-digit growth. Malaysia's total trade rose 7.2 per cent in the first four months of 2025, with MIDF Research expecting export growth to hold over the next few months as firms take advantage of the temporary tariff reprieve. Analysts remain cautious, with MIDF forecasting a slowdown in export growth to 2 per cent and imports to rise 4.5 per cent, as trade uncertainty and tariff risks persist. Bank Negara expects front-loaded exports to normalise soon. UOB economists Julia Goh and Loke Siew Ting flagged ongoing uncertainty as US trade talks continue, noting firms may scale back production on weaker demand expectations. Pending clearer outcomes, UOB maintains its 2025 export growth for Malaysia forecast at 3.8 per cent. — TAN AI LENG Thailand: export fever cooling Thailand may have notched its tenth straight month of year-on-year export growth in April, but the pre-tariff shipping rush is losing steam. Exports rose 10.2 per cent from the prior year – a clear pullback from March's 17.8 per cent surge. Thailand posted US$25.6 billion in exports in April, amounting to a US$3.3 billion trade deficit, revealed data released by the kingdom on May 26. Bank of America's emerging Asia economist Pipat Luengnaruemitchai said April's cooling confirms the house's view that the strong first-quarter performance was temporary, driven by front-loaded shipments ahead of anticipated tariffs. In a May 26 report on Thailand's trade balance, he said: 'Combined with limited domestic production gains and increasing external pressure, Thailand's export and trade balance outlook remains weak in the coming quarters.' He added that more Chinese products may enter the kingdom as Beijing sources for alternative markets. Industrial and agro-industrial products continue to be key growth drivers of Thailand's exports. Notably, a jump in gold exports for a second month kept Thailand's exports robust. Maybank analysts Erica Tay and Chua Hak Bin noted in a recent report that exports of the yellow metal surged 250.5 per cent in April (and 269.5 per cent in March), which accounted for a third of export growth in Thailand – one of the largest physical gold trading hubs. While there is little visibility on bilateral trade talks with the US, the house expects tariffs on Thailand to stay within 30 per cent. — GOH RUOXUE Vietnam: tariff boost to factory blues Vietnam posted strong export growth in April, driven by a spike in orders after the US delayed its 'Liberation Day' tariffs and temporarily exempted some electronic goods. Despite facing a looming 46 per cent reciprocal tariff – among the highest in Asia – Vietnam's exports and imports surged in April by 19.8 per cent and 22.9 per cent year on year to US$37.45 billion and US$36.87 billion, respectively, Vietnam Customs indicated. However, exports dipped 2.8 per cent from March, while imports were flat. Vietnam's electronics exports surged nearly 59 per cent in April, while footwear and textiles rose more than 20 per cent and 17 per cent, respectively, boosting its trade surplus with the US by 25 per cent in the first four months of 2025. At the same time, its trade deficit with China widened by more than 44 per cent. The balance of trade is a key point in the tariff negotiations between Hanoi and Washington. The two countries concluded their second round of trade talks on May 22 and are expected to continue in early June, based on a statement from Vietnam's trade ministry. So far, Hanoi has not only offered to purchase more US goods and reduced tariffs on certain imports, but has also taken steps to address Washington's non-tariff concerns, including fraud related to the origin of goods transshipped from China. Tariff uncertainty is dampening sentiment among Vietnamese manufacturers, with business confidence sinking to its lowest since August 2021, according to S&P Global's April purchasing manager's index survey. Factory activity shrank at the fastest pace since May 2023, as new orders and overseas demand had sharp declines. — JAMILLE TRAN Indonesia: short-term gains, long-term doubts Indonesia's exports climbed 5.8 per cent year on year in April to US$20.7 billion, driven by a 60 per cent increase in electrical machinery shipments and solid gains in iron and steel. Meanwhile, imports jumped 21.8 per cent year on year to US$20.6 billion in April, outpacing export growth and dragging the monthly trade surplus down to a five-year low of US$158.8 million, based on data released by the statistics agency on Jun 2. On a monthly basis, Indonesia's exports dropped 10.8 per cent, which Permata Bank economist Josua Pardede attributed to the typical slowdown during the Eid holidays. 'Additionally, weaker prices for key commodities like crude palm oil and coal are expected to have contributed to the monthly decline,' he said. Exports to the US jumped 18.4 per cent year on year in April, with Bank Central Asia economist David Sumual attributing the rise to front-loading shipments ahead of impending US tariffs. Indonesia's non-oil and gas exports to the US were driven by machinery and electrical equipment, up 17 per cent, alongside solid gains in footwear and apparel. This helped deliver a US$5.4 billion trade surplus with the US from January to April – now under scrutiny as Washington considers a 32 per cent tariff on key sectors. In contrast, Indonesia posted a US$6.9 billion trade deficit with China over the same period, driven by surging imports of machinery, vehicles parts and electronics. Sumual said: 'It appears there is also dumping of goods from China ahead of the tariff deadline.' Maybank economist Brian Lee said the rerouting and import surge from China will likely ease in May and reduce pressure on the trade surplus, given China's trade deal with the US that cut tariffs to 30 per cent from 145 per cent for 90 days. Economists at Samuel Sekuritas wrote while exports are expected to stay positive, global uncertainties and a weaker rupiah could limit gains and raise import costs. — ELISA VALENTA The Philippines: modest tariffs, muted trade Front-loading tied to the Philippines tapered off after the announcement of the tariffs, which imposed a relatively modest 17 per cent levy – the second-lowest among Asean countries after Singapore. If enacted after the 90-day pause, the lower tariff could make Philippine goods more competitive in the US, positioning the net-importing nation to attract diverted trade and investment despite its limited reliance on export-led growth. 'We'll have to wait and see if this does materialise into better export volumes to the US,' said Nicholas Antonio T Mapa, chief economist at Metropolitan Bank. ANZ Research expects a trade agreement between Manila and Washington could be struck by the end of June, with a possible lower tariff rate of 10 to 15 per cent. Preliminary data from the Philippine Statistics Authority showed weaker trade in April, with total value down 2 per cent year on year. Exports rose 7 per cent but marked their slowest growth this year and fell 9.2 per cent from March, while imports dropped 7.2 per cent year on year and 8 per cent monthly – the first decline since December. Electronics remained the top export, accounting for more than half of outbound sales. The trade deficit from January to April narrowed slightly to US$15.9 billion. April's import slump reversed the sharp 17.8 per cent surge seen in March – the strongest since August 2022. The steepest drop came from mineral fuels and lubricants, down 35.1 per cent, while imports of raw materials and intermediate goods – a key gauge of production outlook – swung from a 22.4 per cent rise to an 11 per cent decline. 'It was partly tied to softer prices (on weakening greenback) but perhaps also evidence of moderating demand,' added Mapa. The Philippines' economy relies heavily on domestic consumption, which accounts for about two-thirds of the country's gross domestic product. –– JAMILLE TRAN
Business Times
39 minutes ago
- Business Times
Global alarms rise as China's critical mineral export ban takes hold
[WASHINGTON] Alarm over China's stranglehold on critical minerals grew on Tuesday (Jun 3) as global automakers joined their US counterparts to complain that restrictions by China on exports of rare earth alloys, mixtures and magnets could cause production delays and outages without a quick solution. German automakers became the latest to warn that China's export restrictions threaten to shut down production and rattle their local economies, following a similar complaint from an Indian electric vehicle (EV) maker last week. China's decision in April to suspend exports of a wide range of critical minerals and magnets has upended the supply chains central to automakers, aerospace manufacturers, semiconductor companies and military contractors around the world. The move underscores China's dominance of the critical mineral industry and is seen as leverage by China in its ongoing trade war with US President Donald Trump. Trump has sought to redefine the trading relationship with the US' top economic rival China by imposing steep tariffs on billions of US dollars of imported goods in hopes of narrowing a wide trade deficit and bringing back lost manufacturing. Trump imposed tariffs as high as 145 per cent against China only to scale them back after stock, bond and currency markets revolted over the sweeping nature of the levies. China has responded with its own tariffs and is leveraging its dominance in key supply chains to persuade Trump to back down. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are expected to talk this week, White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt told reporters on Tuesday, and the export ban is expected to be high on the agenda. 'I can assure you that the administration is actively monitoring China's compliance with the Geneva trade agreement,' she said. 'Our administration officials continue to be engaged in correspondence with their Chinese counterparts.' Trump has previously signalled that China's slow pace of easing the critical mineral export ban represents a violation of the Geneva agreement. Shipments of the magnets, essential for assembling everything from cars and drones to robots and missiles, have been halted at many Chinese ports while the Chinese government drafts a new regulatory system. Once in place, the new system could permanently prevent supplies from reaching certain companies, including American military contractors. The suspension has triggered anxiety in corporate boardrooms and nations' capitals – from Tokyo to Washington – as officials scrambled to identify limited alternative options amid fears that production of new automobiles and other items could grind to a halt by summer's end. 'If the situation is not changed quickly, production delays and even production outages can no longer be ruled out,' Hildegard Mueller, head of Germany's auto lobby, said on Tuesday. Frank Fannon, a minerals industry consultant and former US assistant secretary of state for energy resources during Trump's first term, said the global disruptions are not shocking to those paying attention. 'I don't think anyone should be surprised how this is playing out. We have a production challenge (in the US) and we need to leverage our whole of government approach to secure resources and ramp up domestic capability as soon as possible. The time horizon to do this was yesterday,' Fannon. Diplomats, automakers and other executives from India, Japan and Europe were urgently seeking meetings with Beijing officials to push for faster approval of rare earth magnet exports, sources told Reuters, as shortages threatened to halt global supply chains. A business delegation from Japan will visit Beijing in early June to meet the Ministry of Commerce over the curbs and European diplomats from countries with big auto industries have also sought 'emergency' meetings with Chinese officials in recent weeks, Reuters reported. India, where Bajaj Auto warned that any further delays in securing the supply of rare earth magnets from China could 'seriously impact' EV production, is organising a trip for auto executives in the next two to three weeks. In May, the head of the trade group representing General Motors, Toyota, Volkswagen, Hyundai and other major automakers raised similar concerns in a letter to the Trump administration. 'Without reliable access to these elements and magnets, automotive suppliers will be unable to produce critical automotive components, including automatic transmissions, throttle bodies, alternators, various motors, sensors, seat belts, speakers, lights, motors, power steering, and cameras,' the Alliance for Automotive Innovation wrote in the letter. REUTERS
Business Times
an hour ago
- Business Times
Chinese firms brush off US tariff risks with domestic confidence
[HONG KONG] When US President Donald Trump took aim at China with record tariffs, the country's firms shrugged it off. Corporate China has since gone out of its way to assuage investors and tout its ability to weather tariff risks, citing experiences from Trump's first administration and that their businesses ultimately are not that exposed to the US. Overseas revenue only accounts for 10 to 15 per cent of total revenue for Shanghai or Shenzhen-listed companies – so-called A-shares – and close to 12 per cent for the country's benchmark CSI300 index, according to Steven Sun, head of research at HSBC Qianhai Securities. 'The US specifically only accounts for less than 2 per cent of CSI300's total revenue.' This means there is a fundamentally limited impact on A-share earnings. 'China is less reliant on the US for its exports than before,' Sun said, noting that the US accounted for around 20 per cent of China's exports in 2018 compared with around 14 per cent today. Companies are also highlighting a shift in supply chains, and are doubling down on research and development to boost growth, according to a Bloomberg News analysis of corporate transcripts and filings in April and May. Luxshare Precision Industry, a major Apple supplier, told shareholders that products exported to the US were no longer produced in China since the start of the trade war from 2018. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up 'Although tariffs may affect the consumption sentiment of importing countries, we have always relied on diversified development to buffer various challenges,' chairperson Wang Laichun said on an earnings call in early May. 'Even if the market is slightly affected, we can still digest it and ensure the steady development of the company.' Testing defiance Companies' defiant mindset is being put to the test as US-China tensions are rising again, following a brief surge of relief induced by the tariff truce last month. Trump – hours after claiming China violated its agreement with the US – expressed confidence a conversation with Chinese President Xi Jinping could ease fresh trade tensions, though China has since accused the US of violating their recent trade deal and vowed to take measures to defend its interests, dimming prospects of further bilateral talks. Shenzhen-based DR Corp, which makes jewellery products, sped up the process to make its supply chain more global, though it remains optimistic about the US market in the long run and will continue to increase investment and promotion for the country. 'In the face of uncertainty in the US market, we have developed a new strategy to deal with the situation: we will consider brand building and retail operations separately, and focus on increasing investment in brand building,' according to a conference call transcript in May. When US-China tensions peaked with tariffs as high as 145 per cent for Chinese goods, domestically-focused corporations such as Wens Foodstuff Group, which offers livestock and poultry farming services, said the trade war has little impact on its production costs. 'The company predicts the possible impact of the Sino-US trade war in advance, and reserves a certain amount of medium- and long-term feed raw materials when prices are relatively low,' according to a late-April earnings call transcript. The domestic recovery of China's economy is more important for Chinese firms, said Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Marvin Chen. China has been dealing with US tariff hikes for the past seven to eight years, so corporates have already been realigning supply chains, according to Chen. 'Tariffs may impact corporate sentiment, but the expectation is that domestic policy support will do enough to offset the impact.' Lingering export risks Still, first-quarter earnings have been a mixed bag. 'While the stimulus measures implemented at the end of 2024 are beginning to feed through to the domestic economy, the results from China tech giants have diverged somewhat, due to competition and a fragile consumer recovery,' Chen said. In mid-April, Chinese appliance maker Midea Group said Chinese exports face more uncertainties this year, while trade frictions caused by tariffs have increased the operating costs of home appliance companies. Factory orders meanwhile slumped the most in April since September 2022 as US tariffs took a toll on smaller exporters despite the trade war truce, while Chinese earnings saw a sharp downward revision that month as tariffs peaked. Even though rates have come down since, they are still higher than before, which will put pressure on Chinese exporters, HSBC's Sun said. 'Most companies have remained cautious about the trajectory of tariffs, with 2025 consensus earnings forecasts being mostly flat since Apr 12.' 'There is still high uncertainty in what happens in 90 days, if a trade deal can be reached, and if so what the details will be,' Chen said, adding that impacts from additional tariffs can start to be observed during mid-year results. BLOOMBERG
