2025 Hurricane Season Outlook: Not Quite 2024, But Above-Average US Landfall Threat
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season may not be as active as last year, but the threat of U.S. landfalls remains higher than average, according to a just-released outlook issued by The Weather Company and Atmospheric G2.
The forecast figures: We expect 19 storms to form in 2025, nine of which will become hurricanes and four of which will reach Category 3 status or stronger, according to the outlook released Thursday.
That's above the 30-year average tally for both hurricanes and storms. It's just a couple of hurricanes shy of 2024's total of 11 hurricanes.
It's consistent with an outlook issued earlier this month by Colorado State University's tropical forecast team.
(MORE: 2025 Hurricane Season Names Includes One Newcomer)
Still a greater U.S. threat: More important than the number of storms in the entire basin is where they go, or how many may threaten land.
"Since 1950, 23% of all North Atlantic hurricanes have made landfall in the U.S.," wrote Todd Crawford, Vice President of Meteorology at Atmospheric G2. NOAA's Hurricane Research Division calculated an average of about one hurricane made landfall in the U.S. each year, based on data from 1851 through 2022.
But Crawford's team found hints that the threat could be larger this season. That's because long-range computer models suggest the pattern of winds aloft that guide hurricanes could steer more toward the coast again in 2025.
Of course, it's too soon to tell whether that pattern will be in place while a hurricane is out there this season. For now, the AG2/TWC team is forecasting three hurricanes to make a U.S. landfall in 2025, two less than did so during the destructive 2024 hurricane season.
(MORE: Changes Ahead For 2025 Hurricane Season)
Water still warm, but not like 2024: The Gulf and Caribbean are warmer than average but are cooler than they were this time last year. These regions, combined with the subtropical Atlantic, are where we look for early-season activity.
More significantly, water temperatures in the eastern Atlantic, including parts of the region known as the Main Development Region (MDR), are closer to average, if not slightly cooler, and substantially cooler than the record warmth we saw last year.
The MDR is the primary host location for hurricanes that threaten the U.S. and Caribbean during the peak of hurricane season. Should this lukewarm to cooler water stick around several months from now, it would be a major speed bump for tropical development in that region.
(MORE: For even more granular weather data tracking in your area, view your 15-minute details forecast in our Premium Pro experience.)
La Niña is gone, but what's next: The phase of El Niño vs. La Niña is one of the strongest influences on hurricane season activity.
In general, La Niña Atlantic hurricane seasons have less wind shear that can otherwise rip storms apart, and more rising, unstable air that is more conducive for thunderstorms, the building blocks of tropical storms and hurricanes.
Stronger El Niño hurricane seasons produce more wind shear and sinking air over the Caribbean Sea and adjacent parts of the Atlantic Ocean, making the environment more hostile for tropical development.
We don't expect a strong hurricane-suppressing El Niño this hurricane season. NOAA's latest forecast indicates neither La Niña nor El Niño may be a player. Instead, neutral conditions are the most probable outcome during the heart of hurricane season (August through October).
This is another reason for the slightly elevated hurricane season activity.
(MORE: What Is La Niña?)
Prepare every season: Regardless of what seasonal outlooks say, you should be prepared for every hurricane season.
Even quieter hurricane seasons can include one destructive hurricane landfall, or for that matter, an inland remnant with flooding rain and high winds. For those affected, that would not be a "quiet" season.
If you're along the East or Gulf coasts, the time to develop your hurricane safety plan is now, not when a storm is just days away. Information about hurricane preparedness can be found here.
Jonathan Belles has been a graphics meteorologist and writer for weather.com for 8 years and also assists in the production of videos for The Weather Channel en español. His favorite weather is tropical weather, but also enjoys covering high-impact weather and news stories and winter storms. He's a two-time graduate of Florida State University and a proud graduate of St. Petersburg College.
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