Key figure to decide August rate cut
Economists say that would put the quarterly trimmed mean inflation rate between 2.6 and 2.7 per cent over the year – within the RBA's target band of between 2 to 3 per cent – and open the door for further interest rate relief.
Trimmed mean inflation, which excludes volatile prices including food and fuel, is the figure the RBA pays most attention to in its battle to control inflation. The RBA's reading on inflation removes volatile items including food prices for the month. NewsWire/ David Crosling Credit: News Corp Australia
Wednesday's CPI release comes after annual trimmed mean inflation fell to 2.9 per cent in the March quarter, its lowest level since December 2021. It hit a high of 7.8 per cent the following December.
AMP chief economist Shane Oliver said the RBA was looking for further proof inflation had been beaten, with a quarterly figure of between 0.6 or 0.7 likely to sway it to cut the official cash rate after it surprisingly kept it on hold in July.
'A lot comes down to the CPI that comes out on Wednesday,' Dr Oliver said.
'If the CPI is in line or a little bit higher than the RBA's trimmed mean forecast of 2.6 per cent for the year then I think we will get a rate cut.
Australia's Cash Rate 2022
'If it is 2.8 or 2.9, then they might think, let's wait a little while longer.'
Dr Oliver's forecast comes in line with three of the four major banks, with Westpac, ANZ and the Commonwealth Bank all calling quarterly trimmed mean inflation to come in at between 0.6 and 0.7 per cent.
But due to rounding, CBA has pencilled in an inflation rate of 2.8 per cent. Any inflation figure lower than 0.7 is likely good news for homeowners. Photo: NewsWire/ Gaye Gerard Credit: News Corp Australia
CBA economist Harry Ottley, who is expecting inflation to come in at the top of the range, said in a note this result would come in slightly above the RBA's recent estimate of 2.6 per cent.
'If our forecasts are correct, we still expect the board to cut the cash rate in August,' Mr Ottley said.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers said regardless of Wednesday's inflation figures, the cost of living was headed in the right direction.
'Any headline inflation number tomorrow with a two in front of it will confirm that we have been in the Reserve Bank target band for a full year,' the Treasurer said.
'Whatever the quarterly fluctuations or monthly fluctuations, the direction of travel when inflation has been clear.
'Both headline and underlying inflation are now back in the Reserve Bank's target and for the first time since 2021.' Treasurer Jim Chalmers highlights inflation is falling. NewsWire / Martin Ollman Credit: News Corp Australia
RBA governor Michele Bullock said after July's announcement that the cash rate would be kept on hold at 3.85 per cent was a pause about timing rather than direction.
'All members agreed that, based on the information currently available, the outlook was for underlying inflation to decline further in year‑ended terms, warranting some additional reduction in interest rates over time,' she told reporters.
'The focus at this meeting was on the appropriate timing and extent of further easing, against the backdrop of heightened uncertainty'. CPI is the final piece of the puzzle after a weaker than expected jobs figure. Photo: NewsWire/ Gaye Gerard Credit: News Corp Australia
Wednesday's CPI figures will be the last bit of economic data released ahead of the RBA's August 11 to 12 meeting.
An inflation print in line with the RBA's expectation would follow weaker than expected jobs figures released in June.
The unemployment rate rose to 4.3 per cent last in June, beating market expectations of 4.1 per cent, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
NED-9108-Monthly-Inflation-Indicator
Despite the Australian dollar crashing and the sharemarket jumping on the news, Ms Bullock said it wasn't the 'shocking result' markets were calling during her speech at the Anika Foundation.
'Some of the coverage of the latest data suggested this was a shock – but the outcome for the June quarter was in line with the forecast we released in May,' she said.
Ms Bullock said the board wanted to see a gradual easing in labour market conditions, that has so far been most evident in fewer job vacancies, reductions in hours worked and declining rates of voluntary job switching.
'These shifts aren't without their challenges, but they all tend to be less disruptive than outright job losses,' she said.
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
West Australian
10 hours ago
- West Australian
Zeus Street Greek joins the rise of ‘elevated' Aussie fast food chains
Australian fast food chains are quickly establishing themselves in a market that has traditionally been dominated by massive American competitors. Now, a clever new trend may be the key to unlocking an even greater market share for homegrown businesses. Zeus Street Greek is a fast-growing Aussie food chain that specialises in both new and classic ways of making Greek-inspired dishes. In a bold move to expand its reach, Zeus has partnered with Woolworths to introduce a new range of products for consumers who want to recreate the store's signature flavours in their own homes. Zeus CEO Ramon Castillo said the kits would allow Aussies to recreate some of the most popular flavours available inside the restaurants. 'The products that we've developed for Woolworths have been inspired by our menu here in-store,' Mr Castillo said. 'We've got some make-at-home products like pilaf rice, there's some sauces and there's actually products that are almost directly (the same) as what we serve here in our store.' The range includes 20 news products that will only be available in Woolworths stores, including 'signature rubs, sauces and DIY pita kits.' The $80m chain boasts 40 stores nationwide, which it has gradually accumulated in the 11 years since the first Zeus store opened its doors in Drummoyne in June 2014. Not yet satisfied, Mr Castillo said he was planning to introduce another 100 stores across the nation in the next five years. 'We have got a strong presence here in NSW, and we've seen some growth in Victoria and Queensland,' said Mr Castillo. 'We've opened our second location in Western Australia and the demand has just been amazing, so we are going to continue to look at the west coast and continue to build down in Victoria and up in Queensland.' 'We're really looking forward to a full national presence over the next five years on the journey to 140 locations.' Zeus isn't the only company testing the waters of commercial grocery partnerships. Sydney-based burger chain Grill'd, which has built up one of the strongest homegrown 'Quick Service Restaurant' (QSR) empires in Australia, has just entered into a partnership with Coles. Founded in 2004, Grill'd operates 173 restaurants in Australia and is one of the country's eight fastest-growing QSR brands. From Wednesday, several varieties of Grill'd's signature burger patties have hit shelves in Coles stores around the country. The move comes as Australian brands such as Zambrero and Guzman y Gomez begin to find serious purchase in fast food market share. When it comes to the kind of area that fits the bill for a new Zeus franchise, Mr Castillo said there had to be a 'strong breakdown' of diverse demographics in the community. 'We're looking for a strong cross-section of Gen Z and families, but ultimately we know that our brand is emerging as a new style of elevated (fast food),' he said. 'There are lots of pizza shops, there are lots of Mexican and burgers, (but) there aren't a lot of Greek stores. 'So we are very proud to ultimately recognise the strength that comes from our Greek offer.' The strength of the 'Greek offer' is also part of the reason why Zeus partnered with Woolworths. 'When you think of Mexican food when you go shopping, you think of Old El Paso,' he said. 'But there's no real brand that anybody thinks of when it comes to Greek food, and we hope to change that.' Zeus is still figuring out price points and dates of sale, but eagle-eyed shoppers can expect to see the collaboration launch in the near future.
Perth Now
10 hours ago
- Perth Now
Aussie fast food giants' huge new move
Australian fast food chains are quickly establishing themselves in a market that has traditionally been dominated by massive American competitors. Now, a clever new trend may be the key to unlocking an even greater market share for homegrown businesses. Zeus Street Greek is a fast-growing Aussie food chain that specialises in both new and classic ways of making Greek-inspired dishes. In a bold move to expand its reach, Zeus has partnered with Woolworths to introduce a new range of products for consumers who want to recreate the store's signature flavours in their own homes. Zeus has taken the classic Greek Gyros formula and turned it into an $80 million fast food empire. Christian Gilles / NewsWire Credit: News Corp Australia Zeus CEO Ramon Castillo said the kits would allow Aussies to recreate some of the most popular flavours available inside the restaurants. 'The products that we've developed for Woolworths have been inspired by our menu here in-store,' Mr Castillo said. 'We've got some make-at-home products like pilaf rice, there's some sauces and there's actually products that are almost directly (the same) as what we serve here in our store.' The range includes 20 news products that will only be available in Woolworths stores, including 'signature rubs, sauces and DIY pita kits.' Pilaf rice is one of the 20 different Zeus products coming soon to Woolworths' shelves. Christian Gilles / NewsWire Credit: News Corp Australia The $80m chain boasts 40 stores nationwide, which it has gradually accumulated in the 11 years since the first Zeus store opened its doors in Drummoyne in June 2014. Not yet satisfied, Mr Castillo said he was planning to introduce another 100 stores across the nation in the next five years. 'We have got a strong presence here in NSW, and we've seen some growth in Victoria and Queensland,' said Mr Castillo. 'We've opened our second location in Western Australia and the demand has just been amazing, so we are going to continue to look at the west coast and continue to build down in Victoria and up in Queensland.' 'We're really looking forward to a full national presence over the next five years on the journey to 140 locations.' Zeus stores are adorned with the royal blue and white of the nation which inspires their dishes. Christian Gilles / NewsWire Credit: News Corp Australia Zeus isn't the only company testing the waters of commercial grocery partnerships. Sydney-based burger chain Grill'd, which has built up one of the strongest homegrown 'Quick Service Restaurant' (QSR) empires in Australia, has just entered into a partnership with Coles. Founded in 2004, Grill'd operates 173 restaurants in Australia and is one of the country's eight fastest-growing QSR brands. From Wednesday, several varieties of Grill'd's signature burger patties have hit shelves in Coles stores around the country. The move comes as Australian brands such as Zambrero and Guzman y Gomez begin to find serious purchase in fast food market share. Grill'd operates more than 170 stores across Australia. Google Credit: Supplied When it comes to the kind of area that fits the bill for a new Zeus franchise, Mr Castillo said there had to be a 'strong breakdown' of diverse demographics in the community. 'We're looking for a strong cross-section of Gen Z and families, but ultimately we know that our brand is emerging as a new style of elevated (fast food),' he said. 'There are lots of pizza shops, there are lots of Mexican and burgers, (but) there aren't a lot of Greek stores. 'So we are very proud to ultimately recognise the strength that comes from our Greek offer.' The strength of the 'Greek offer' is also part of the reason why Zeus partnered with Woolworths. 'When you think of Mexican food when you go shopping, you think of Old El Paso,' he said. 'But there's no real brand that anybody thinks of when it comes to Greek food, and we hope to change that.' Zeus is still figuring out price points and dates of sale, but eagle-eyed shoppers can expect to see the collaboration launch in the near future.
The Advertiser
10 hours ago
- The Advertiser
Australia and New Zealand embrace in 'uncertain world'
Australia and New Zealand are promising to strengthen trade and security ties in an "increasingly fractious and uncertain" world. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has crossed the Tasman for annual talks with his Kiwi counterpart. "In a time of global uncertainty, the certainty and the strength of this bond has never been more important," Mr Albanese said in Queenstown on Saturday. Greeting the Australian prime minister with an enthusiastic full-body hug, Christopher Luxon said his nation had "no greater friend than Australia". "You are family," the New Zealand leader said. "There's nothing more certain than the bedrock of the relationship that we have between our two great countries." It is Mr Albanese's second time across the Tasman as Australia's leader and although he and Mr Luxon represent opposite ends of the political spectrum, both affirmed their nations "common outlook and deep trust". During an annual leaders' meeting, the pair discussed defence, the war in Gaza and trade deals amid what they described as "the most unpredictable and dangerous strategic environment in decades". Mr Albanese addressed attendees by noting the "uncertain world" the two nations faced with "geopolitical tension, issues with trade and conflict in the world". "But there is one thing that is certain and that is that Australia and New Zealand stand together," he said. The leaders committed to further advancing the trans-Tasman single economic market, established in 2009 to grow trade and deepen investment links between the two countries, as "an example for the world". "At a time when free and fair trade is being questioned, I think it's really important that we emphasise the opportunity that's there as well for both of our nations being located as we are," Mr Albanese said. "Just to our north is the fastest-growing region in the world in human history, and that represents opportunity." The "complicated" relationship between opportunities and challenges posed by China became a focus of talks behind the scenes "China is a massive and significant player in the world, and it's a permanent feature of global affairs," Mr Albanese told reporters shortly after the closed door meetings. "We have a approach which is about co-operating where we can (and) we disagree where we must. "We have different systems, different values ... We'll stand up for those at different times, and we'll have differences." The pair also discussed the impact of the US President Donald Trump's tariffs. While Mr Trump raised tariffs against dozens of nations, he showed mercy on Australia and kept levies against most products at 10 per cent. But New Zealand was not spared - hit with a 15 per cent "reciprocal" tariff. Mr Albanese and Mr Luxon said they stood for "rules-based trade" where businesses could be given certainty and predictability. They also agreed to work together to reform the World Trade Organisation as the foundation and enforcer of global trade rules. David Capie, from Victoria University of Wellington, said the Luxon government had leaned into its partnership with Australia since coming to power. "You've got a New Zealand government that wants to do more with Australia," the foreign and defence policy expert told AAP. "The up-ending of the economic order with the Trump tariffs, the Middle East - all of those things NZ and Australia are finding that they're very closely aligned." The meeting coincided with the release of a joint statement from the foreign ministers of Australia, New Zealand, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom, condemning Israel's plan to intensify the war on Gaza and assume full control of the territory. In it, the ministers said they "strongly reject" Israel's decision to launch a large-scale military operation in Gaza and warned the looming military operation risked violating international law and putting the lives of hostages and civilians in more danger. Mr Albanese's two-day trip to New Zealand continues on Sunday. Australia and New Zealand are promising to strengthen trade and security ties in an "increasingly fractious and uncertain" world. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has crossed the Tasman for annual talks with his Kiwi counterpart. "In a time of global uncertainty, the certainty and the strength of this bond has never been more important," Mr Albanese said in Queenstown on Saturday. Greeting the Australian prime minister with an enthusiastic full-body hug, Christopher Luxon said his nation had "no greater friend than Australia". "You are family," the New Zealand leader said. "There's nothing more certain than the bedrock of the relationship that we have between our two great countries." It is Mr Albanese's second time across the Tasman as Australia's leader and although he and Mr Luxon represent opposite ends of the political spectrum, both affirmed their nations "common outlook and deep trust". During an annual leaders' meeting, the pair discussed defence, the war in Gaza and trade deals amid what they described as "the most unpredictable and dangerous strategic environment in decades". Mr Albanese addressed attendees by noting the "uncertain world" the two nations faced with "geopolitical tension, issues with trade and conflict in the world". "But there is one thing that is certain and that is that Australia and New Zealand stand together," he said. The leaders committed to further advancing the trans-Tasman single economic market, established in 2009 to grow trade and deepen investment links between the two countries, as "an example for the world". "At a time when free and fair trade is being questioned, I think it's really important that we emphasise the opportunity that's there as well for both of our nations being located as we are," Mr Albanese said. "Just to our north is the fastest-growing region in the world in human history, and that represents opportunity." The "complicated" relationship between opportunities and challenges posed by China became a focus of talks behind the scenes "China is a massive and significant player in the world, and it's a permanent feature of global affairs," Mr Albanese told reporters shortly after the closed door meetings. "We have a approach which is about co-operating where we can (and) we disagree where we must. "We have different systems, different values ... We'll stand up for those at different times, and we'll have differences." The pair also discussed the impact of the US President Donald Trump's tariffs. While Mr Trump raised tariffs against dozens of nations, he showed mercy on Australia and kept levies against most products at 10 per cent. But New Zealand was not spared - hit with a 15 per cent "reciprocal" tariff. Mr Albanese and Mr Luxon said they stood for "rules-based trade" where businesses could be given certainty and predictability. They also agreed to work together to reform the World Trade Organisation as the foundation and enforcer of global trade rules. David Capie, from Victoria University of Wellington, said the Luxon government had leaned into its partnership with Australia since coming to power. "You've got a New Zealand government that wants to do more with Australia," the foreign and defence policy expert told AAP. "The up-ending of the economic order with the Trump tariffs, the Middle East - all of those things NZ and Australia are finding that they're very closely aligned." The meeting coincided with the release of a joint statement from the foreign ministers of Australia, New Zealand, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom, condemning Israel's plan to intensify the war on Gaza and assume full control of the territory. In it, the ministers said they "strongly reject" Israel's decision to launch a large-scale military operation in Gaza and warned the looming military operation risked violating international law and putting the lives of hostages and civilians in more danger. Mr Albanese's two-day trip to New Zealand continues on Sunday. Australia and New Zealand are promising to strengthen trade and security ties in an "increasingly fractious and uncertain" world. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has crossed the Tasman for annual talks with his Kiwi counterpart. "In a time of global uncertainty, the certainty and the strength of this bond has never been more important," Mr Albanese said in Queenstown on Saturday. Greeting the Australian prime minister with an enthusiastic full-body hug, Christopher Luxon said his nation had "no greater friend than Australia". "You are family," the New Zealand leader said. "There's nothing more certain than the bedrock of the relationship that we have between our two great countries." It is Mr Albanese's second time across the Tasman as Australia's leader and although he and Mr Luxon represent opposite ends of the political spectrum, both affirmed their nations "common outlook and deep trust". During an annual leaders' meeting, the pair discussed defence, the war in Gaza and trade deals amid what they described as "the most unpredictable and dangerous strategic environment in decades". Mr Albanese addressed attendees by noting the "uncertain world" the two nations faced with "geopolitical tension, issues with trade and conflict in the world". "But there is one thing that is certain and that is that Australia and New Zealand stand together," he said. The leaders committed to further advancing the trans-Tasman single economic market, established in 2009 to grow trade and deepen investment links between the two countries, as "an example for the world". "At a time when free and fair trade is being questioned, I think it's really important that we emphasise the opportunity that's there as well for both of our nations being located as we are," Mr Albanese said. "Just to our north is the fastest-growing region in the world in human history, and that represents opportunity." The "complicated" relationship between opportunities and challenges posed by China became a focus of talks behind the scenes "China is a massive and significant player in the world, and it's a permanent feature of global affairs," Mr Albanese told reporters shortly after the closed door meetings. "We have a approach which is about co-operating where we can (and) we disagree where we must. "We have different systems, different values ... We'll stand up for those at different times, and we'll have differences." The pair also discussed the impact of the US President Donald Trump's tariffs. While Mr Trump raised tariffs against dozens of nations, he showed mercy on Australia and kept levies against most products at 10 per cent. But New Zealand was not spared - hit with a 15 per cent "reciprocal" tariff. Mr Albanese and Mr Luxon said they stood for "rules-based trade" where businesses could be given certainty and predictability. They also agreed to work together to reform the World Trade Organisation as the foundation and enforcer of global trade rules. David Capie, from Victoria University of Wellington, said the Luxon government had leaned into its partnership with Australia since coming to power. "You've got a New Zealand government that wants to do more with Australia," the foreign and defence policy expert told AAP. "The up-ending of the economic order with the Trump tariffs, the Middle East - all of those things NZ and Australia are finding that they're very closely aligned." The meeting coincided with the release of a joint statement from the foreign ministers of Australia, New Zealand, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom, condemning Israel's plan to intensify the war on Gaza and assume full control of the territory. In it, the ministers said they "strongly reject" Israel's decision to launch a large-scale military operation in Gaza and warned the looming military operation risked violating international law and putting the lives of hostages and civilians in more danger. Mr Albanese's two-day trip to New Zealand continues on Sunday. Australia and New Zealand are promising to strengthen trade and security ties in an "increasingly fractious and uncertain" world. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has crossed the Tasman for annual talks with his Kiwi counterpart. "In a time of global uncertainty, the certainty and the strength of this bond has never been more important," Mr Albanese said in Queenstown on Saturday. Greeting the Australian prime minister with an enthusiastic full-body hug, Christopher Luxon said his nation had "no greater friend than Australia". "You are family," the New Zealand leader said. "There's nothing more certain than the bedrock of the relationship that we have between our two great countries." It is Mr Albanese's second time across the Tasman as Australia's leader and although he and Mr Luxon represent opposite ends of the political spectrum, both affirmed their nations "common outlook and deep trust". During an annual leaders' meeting, the pair discussed defence, the war in Gaza and trade deals amid what they described as "the most unpredictable and dangerous strategic environment in decades". Mr Albanese addressed attendees by noting the "uncertain world" the two nations faced with "geopolitical tension, issues with trade and conflict in the world". "But there is one thing that is certain and that is that Australia and New Zealand stand together," he said. The leaders committed to further advancing the trans-Tasman single economic market, established in 2009 to grow trade and deepen investment links between the two countries, as "an example for the world". "At a time when free and fair trade is being questioned, I think it's really important that we emphasise the opportunity that's there as well for both of our nations being located as we are," Mr Albanese said. "Just to our north is the fastest-growing region in the world in human history, and that represents opportunity." The "complicated" relationship between opportunities and challenges posed by China became a focus of talks behind the scenes "China is a massive and significant player in the world, and it's a permanent feature of global affairs," Mr Albanese told reporters shortly after the closed door meetings. "We have a approach which is about co-operating where we can (and) we disagree where we must. "We have different systems, different values ... We'll stand up for those at different times, and we'll have differences." The pair also discussed the impact of the US President Donald Trump's tariffs. While Mr Trump raised tariffs against dozens of nations, he showed mercy on Australia and kept levies against most products at 10 per cent. But New Zealand was not spared - hit with a 15 per cent "reciprocal" tariff. Mr Albanese and Mr Luxon said they stood for "rules-based trade" where businesses could be given certainty and predictability. They also agreed to work together to reform the World Trade Organisation as the foundation and enforcer of global trade rules. David Capie, from Victoria University of Wellington, said the Luxon government had leaned into its partnership with Australia since coming to power. "You've got a New Zealand government that wants to do more with Australia," the foreign and defence policy expert told AAP. "The up-ending of the economic order with the Trump tariffs, the Middle East - all of those things NZ and Australia are finding that they're very closely aligned." The meeting coincided with the release of a joint statement from the foreign ministers of Australia, New Zealand, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom, condemning Israel's plan to intensify the war on Gaza and assume full control of the territory. In it, the ministers said they "strongly reject" Israel's decision to launch a large-scale military operation in Gaza and warned the looming military operation risked violating international law and putting the lives of hostages and civilians in more danger. Mr Albanese's two-day trip to New Zealand continues on Sunday.
