Elon Musk's Grok-4 was asked to predict the World Series. After 4.5 minutes, it chose the Dodgers.
Sports betters rely on a variety of tools for their wagers. Betting sites like FanDuel and BetMGM have their own odds, as do predictions markets like Polymarket. Grok-4, the newest iteration of xAI's large language model, may be their next resource.
During the launch of Grok-4 — just a day after its previous iteration, Grok-3, went on several antisemitic rants — Elon Musk and his xAI panel prompted the chatbot to calculate odds on the World Series.
After an over four-minute wait, the model predicted both a likely winner and a high-value edge case.
During the presentation, an xAI employee called Polymarket the "C-curve of truth" that "aligns with what reality is most of the time." They wanted Grok-4 to do the same.
"We can try to take these markets and see if we can predict the future as well," he said.
According to the demo, Grok-4 first gathered the current standing of each team and their market odds. It cited ESPN, Bleacher Nation, FOX, and BetMGM.
Grok-4 then calculated its own odds based on FanGraph data. After comparing the internally calculated odds against the betting sites, it identified an Alpha and Edge.
The Alpha — an excess return over the market — recognized the Dodgers as overvalued in Grok-4's calculations. The Edge — a bet with positive expected value — was given to the Mariners and Astros.
Ultimately, Grok-4 found the Dodgers most likely to win, with a 21.6% chance. For a potentially higher return, Grok-4 recommended betting on the underpriced Mariners.
Grok-4's predictions are not far off from the current odds on Polymarket, the popular betting site. The Dodgers also dominate there, with an even greater 28% odds. The Mariners only have 2% odds on Polymarket.
To calculate these odds, Grok-4 needs to use its "Heavy" reasoning capabilities, which cost the user $300/month for early access. This means a response may take longer than traditional chatbot responses. During the demo, it took 4.5 minutes for Grok-4 to calculate the World Series odds.
"That's a lot of thinking," Musk said.
How confident is Grok-4 in its guess? It's just a prediction, as the chatbot's own disclaimer demonstrates: "Grok is not a financial advisor; please consult one."
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