NCAA picks: Expert predictions, odds, betting lines, schedule for the Florida vs Houston NCAA basketball championship game

Yahoo

07-04-2025

For a long time Saturday night, it looked like we'd be getting a Florida vs. Duke championship game.
Houston didn't like that plan.
The Cougars had a comeback that's still hard to believe, making every play down the stretch as they overcame a nine-point deficit against Duke with a little more than two minutes left to advance. In a Final Four in which any combination of the No. 1 seeds would have been worthy of playing in the title game on Monday night, we will get a great matchup between a Houston team that breezed through the Big 12 and a Florida team that was in a historically dominant SEC but easily won the league tournament. It's just not the matchup it looked like we'd have for most of the second game Saturday.
Here's the pick for the title game, with odds from BetMGM:
(All times Eastern.)
It's not that Duke didn't compete hard, or Florida won't compete hard, or that any of the 35 teams Houston beat this season lacked in competitive desire. But Kelvin Sampson's Cougars just have a different gear in that category.
We saw it Saturday night. Their win probability dipped to less than 10% at times and it didn't matter. They seemed to be a step quicker on every rebound or loose ball. They willed themselves to a win. Everyone preaches culture, but Houston coach Kelvin Sampson has truly instilled one.
It's not like the Cougars aren't talented either. They ranked No. 9 in offensive efficiency in college basketball this season, via KenPom.com, with the best 3-point percentage in the nation. The defense was No. 1, and that's obvious any time you watch Houston.
Yet Houston is still slow to get its credit. Even though the major analytics sites like KenPom.com, EvanMiya.com, BartTorvik.com and Haslammetrics.com have Houston ranked higher, Florida is favored. The Gators are a more familiar brand, with a long SEC history and two national championships. Houston has never won a title (though it does have a rich history) and the program was dormant before Sampson arrived. And Florida is a worthy favorite; the Gators are a smart team with a coach in Todd Golden who will be a star for a while and a true college superstar in Walter Clayton Jr. But it's another slight to Houston, which is still striving to get the respect it has earned after moving to the Big 12 and dominating that league for two straight seasons.
Houston is one win from not having to worry about being disrespected again. Florida doesn't really have a weakness either. The Gators are good on both ends, have size and great depth, have proven a few times in this NCAA tournament that they won't be scared when they face a deficit late in a game and surely have played the type of schedule that prepared them for this moment. But in picking between two worthy teams, it's not a bad angle to assume Houston will just find a way. Sampson's Cougars have a toughness that's pretty special.