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Yahoo
07-04-2025
- Sport
- Yahoo
NCAA picks: Expert predictions, odds, betting lines, schedule for the Florida vs Houston NCAA basketball championship game
For a long time Saturday night, it looked like we'd be getting a Florida vs. Duke championship game. Houston didn't like that plan. The Cougars had a comeback that's still hard to believe, making every play down the stretch as they overcame a nine-point deficit against Duke with a little more than two minutes left to advance. In a Final Four in which any combination of the No. 1 seeds would have been worthy of playing in the title game on Monday night, we will get a great matchup between a Houston team that breezed through the Big 12 and a Florida team that was in a historically dominant SEC but easily won the league tournament. It's just not the matchup it looked like we'd have for most of the second game Saturday. Here's the pick for the title game, with odds from BetMGM: (All times Eastern.) It's not that Duke didn't compete hard, or Florida won't compete hard, or that any of the 35 teams Houston beat this season lacked in competitive desire. But Kelvin Sampson's Cougars just have a different gear in that category. We saw it Saturday night. Their win probability dipped to less than 10% at times and it didn't matter. They seemed to be a step quicker on every rebound or loose ball. They willed themselves to a win. Everyone preaches culture, but Houston coach Kelvin Sampson has truly instilled one. It's not like the Cougars aren't talented either. They ranked No. 9 in offensive efficiency in college basketball this season, via with the best 3-point percentage in the nation. The defense was No. 1, and that's obvious any time you watch Houston. Yet Houston is still slow to get its credit. Even though the major analytics sites like and have Houston ranked higher, Florida is favored. The Gators are a more familiar brand, with a long SEC history and two national championships. Houston has never won a title (though it does have a rich history) and the program was dormant before Sampson arrived. And Florida is a worthy favorite; the Gators are a smart team with a coach in Todd Golden who will be a star for a while and a true college superstar in Walter Clayton Jr. But it's another slight to Houston, which is still striving to get the respect it has earned after moving to the Big 12 and dominating that league for two straight seasons. Houston is one win from not having to worry about being disrespected again. Florida doesn't really have a weakness either. The Gators are good on both ends, have size and great depth, have proven a few times in this NCAA tournament that they won't be scared when they face a deficit late in a game and surely have played the type of schedule that prepared them for this moment. But in picking between two worthy teams, it's not a bad angle to assume Houston will just find a way. Sampson's Cougars have a toughness that's pretty special.
USA Today
07-04-2025
- Sport
- USA Today
Florida, Houston face battle of wills in March Madness title game that is contrast of styles
Florida, Houston face battle of wills in March Madness title game that is contrast of styles Show Caption Hide Caption Florida and Houston set to compete for NCAA title and this is how they got here USA TODAY Sports' Paul Myerberg is on site in Houston to preview the national championship game between Florida and Houston. Sports Seriously One thing that's obvious about Florida and Houston heading into the national championship game: Neither team is going to quit. Florida was down eight at halftime of the national semifinals against Auburn before flipping momentum with a quick 11-0 run early in the second half. After being battered by the Tigers' frontcourt, the Gators essentially shut down Auburn senior Johni Broome in the second half, holding the All-America forward to just 3 points on 1 of 4 shooting from the field. Later on Saturday night, Houston trailed Duke by 14 points with roughly eight minutes remaining in the second half and by nine with 2:15 to play. But a crucial takeaway and clutch shooting from 3-point range helped the Cougars pull off the second-largest second-half comeback in Final Four history and deal the Blue Devils 'the most heartbreaking loss,' Duke coach Jon Scheyer said. 'We just stay together in those moments,' said senior Florida guard Walter Clayton Jr., who scored 34 points in the win. 'I can't speak for Houston's team, what they got going on in the locker room. They seem like a very together team also. It should be a good 40-minute fight.' The similarities continue. Both teams are highly effective from 3-point range. Both are excellent at defending the perimeter. Both run guard-oriented offensive schemes but can score in the paint. Yet the differences between Florida and Houston will be on display from the opening seconds on Monday night. There is no greater contrast than the tempo and flow the Gators and Cougars will look to establish early in the first half. While several other factors loom large, which team can dictate the pace of play will be the deciding issue in determining the national championship. Florida will look to race, especially in transition. The Gators rank second nationally and first among Power Five schools in fastbreak points per game. They scored just twice on the break against Auburn, however, potentially giving Houston a blueprint for the championship game. Houston is comfortable slowing things down to a crawl. The Cougars rank 360th out of 365 Division I teams in adjusted tempo, according to which measures a team's possessions per 40 minutes adjusted for opponent. That Houston didn't deviate from this script and patiently chipped away at the Blue Devils' lead in the second half speaks to the program's culture, coach Kelvin Sampson said. 'We've kind of done it our way,' said Sampson. 'It's worked out pretty good.' This battle to set the pace emphasizes the broader push and pull between Florida's offense and Houston's defense. The Gators rank third nationally in scoring and have been held under 70 points just once. Florida is averaging 84.4 points per game in tournament play. Houston leads the nation in giving up only 58.5 points per game and was one of only three teams this season to hold Duke under 70 points. 'They're the best defensive team in America,' Golden said. 'They have just a great identity as a program of just being both physically and mentally tough.' A good comparison for Monday night's matchup may be how Florida performed in three matchups against SEC rival Tennessee. The Gators averaged 67.7 points per game in taking two of three from the Volunteers, the last in the SEC championship game. But in the one loss, the Volunteers held the Gators to just 44 points on 13 of 53 shooting (24.5%), including 4 of 27 (14.8%) from deep. While that loss is an outlier, evaluating how Florida matched up with Tennessee and how the Cougars handed the Volunteers a 69-50 victory in the Elite Eight will give his team 'a way to attack (Houston) a little bit,' Golden said. Meanwhile, Houston can tap into that Elite Eight win and a pair of non-conference setbacks against SEC teams that make up half of the Cougars' defeats on the year. Houston lost 74-69 at home to Auburn on Nov. 9 and then lost 85-80 in overtime to Alabama on Nov. 26 in the opener of the Players Era Festival in Las Vegas. Two factors will help shape the push and pull between Florida's offense and Houston's defense. One is turnovers, a common thread linking the Gators' regular-season losses to Tennessee, Missouri and Kentucky. Overall, Florida ranks 118th nationally in averaging 11.1 turnovers per game and 141st in turnover margin. But few teams are better than Houston at limiting giveaways. The Cougars rank third in the country with nine turnovers per game and 10th in turnover margin. They forced two huge turnovers in final 1:39 against Duke, including one that led to a second-chance dunk to trim the score to 67-66 with 25 seconds to play. 'I feel like when you get offensive rebounds, second-chance points, points off turnovers, I feel like that can get you back in the flow of the game if you're having a bad shooting night,' said senior Houston forward J'wan Roberts. The second factor is how each team fares from 3-point range. The Gators are higher-volume shooters: Florida has attempted 20 shots from behind the arc in every game but one, putting up 19 from deep in a win against Connecticut in the second round. Defensively, Florida's opponents have made 29.5% of attempts from deep, ranking eighth nationally. The Cougars will pick their spots as part of a more methodical approach. Houston averages 20.6 attempts per game, ranking 265th nationally, but makes them count. The Cougars top Division I in making 39.9% from 3-point range and connected on 10 of 22 attempts against Duke, including 5 of 11 in the second half. Senior guard L.J. Cryer made three of four attempts from deep in the second half and six of nine overall, part of his team-high 26 points. His play on the perimeter is matched by Clayton, who became the first player since Larry Bird in 1979 to score 30 or more points in the Elite Eight and the national semifinals. Keeping Clayton in check will be one of Houston's top priorities. More susceptible defensively in the paint, the Cougars have consistently locked down on opposing backcourts. Arizona State senior Alston Mason's 26 points in an 80-65 loss on Feb. 18 are the most Houston has allowed to a guard this season. But individual matchups take a back seat to the more general way Florida and Houston will look to attack Monday night. The Gators want to play the game on their terms; so do the Cougars. The winner will be the team that forces the other into an uncomfortably different style. 'I think it's going to be a contrasting battle that way,' said Golden. 'Hopefully we can get the game up and down a little bit. They're going to impose their will as they've done on everybody this year. We're a pretty tough team also.'
Yahoo
03-04-2025
- Sport
- Yahoo
Final Four college basketball picks: Expert predictions, odds, betting lines, schedule for NCAA tournament Saturday games
This is the strongest Final Four since the NCAA tournament expanded in 1985. It's hard to argue otherwise. This is just the second time all four No. 1 seeds advanced to the Final Four. It has four of the top 10 highest-rated teams in history, which dates back to the 1996-97 season. Advertisement This tournament has been a little dry, in terms of great games, surprise storylines, upsets and Cinderellas. But that all led to a Final Four that may never be replicated. An all-time great Final Four would be the legacy of this tournament, not the relative disappointment that preceded it. Here are the picks for the Final Four games on Saturday, with odds from BetMGM: (All times Eastern.) Think of the Final Four this way: Auburn ranks higher at KenPom than all but six teams from 1997-2024, yet it ranks fourth in this Final Four and has BetMGM's longest odds to win it all at +525. Auburn would have been the favorite in 21 of the past 27 tournaments, if KenPom was used to set the odds. Advertisement Part of the reason Auburn trails the field is Johni Broome's health. Broome went down in the second half of the Elite Eight win with an elbow injury when he landed hard on the court. Broome came back into that game and there doesn't seem to be any concern that he won't play Saturday, but he did miss practices to start the week. Broome is a national player of the year contender along with favorite Cooper Flagg, and if he's not 100% it would obviously affect Auburn. But if Broome is at his normal level, Auburn is capable of winning it all. The way Florida gave up points in the paint to Texas Tech in the Elite Eight will be noted by the Tigers. Florida has needed great escapes against UConn and Texas Tech in this tournament, and while the Gators' clutch play down the stretch in each game was impressive, it's tough to keep winning that way. Auburn looked vulnerable late in the season but won its first three tournament games by double digits and led Michigan State by 10 or more for most of its six-point Elite Eight win. Florida did win 90-81 at Auburn on Feb. 8, but it's hard to pass on Auburn getting points. Duke looks unbeatable in this tournament. But so did 1991 UNLV, 1999 Duke, 2015 Kentucky, 2021 Gonzaga and a few other dominant favorites. And with a Final Four this strong, no team is guaranteed to win two games. Not even Cooper Flagg and Duke. Advertisement The late matchup Saturday is fascinating. Duke is the most efficient offense that has ever tracked, barely ahead of fellow Final Four entrant Florida and 2015 Wisconsin. The Blue Devils will go against Houston, which was the No. 1 most efficient defense this season. It held Tennessee, a very good offensive team, to 15 points in the first half of the Elite Eight. While Duke has had vibes of UConn the past two tournaments, UConn didn't have a matchup as tough as Houston in either of those title runs. Houston isn't one dimensional either, with KenPom's No. 10 offense (Duke isn't either with its No. 4 defense). This won't be easy for Flagg and his team to advance, no matter how dominant the Blue Devils have been. There's a reason Duke is favored. The Blue Devils are deserving favorites to win it all and have passed every analytics and eye test. This is a very good college basketball team. But so is Houston, and we're long overdue for a couple of great, close games.
Yahoo
03-04-2025
- Sport
- Yahoo
Final Four picks: Expert predictions, odds, betting lines, schedule for NCAA tournament Saturday games
This is the strongest Final Four since the NCAA tournament expanded in 1985. It's hard to argue otherwise. This is just the second time all four No. 1 seeds advanced to the Final Four. It has four of the top 10 highest-rated teams in history, which dates back to the 1996-97 season. Advertisement This tournament has been a little dry, in terms of great games, surprise storylines, upsets and Cinderellas. But that all led to a Final Four that may never be replicated. An all-time great Final Four would be the legacy of this tournament, not the relative disappointment that preceded it. Here are the picks for the Final Four games on Saturday, with odds from BetMGM: All times Eastern. Auburn (+2.5) over Florida, 6:09 p.m. Saturday Think of the Final Four this way: Auburn ranks higher at KenPom than all but six teams from 1997-2024, yet it ranks fourth in this Final Four and has BetMGM's longest odds to win it all at +525. Auburn would have been the favorite in 21 of the past 27 tournaments, if KenPom was used to set the odds. Advertisement Part of the reason Auburn trails the field is Johni Broome's health. Broome went down in the second half of the Elite Eight win with an elbow injury when he landed hard on the court. Broome came back into that game and there doesn't seem to be any concern that he won't play Saturday, but he did miss practices to start the week. Broome is a national player of the year contender along with favorite Cooper Flagg, and if he's not 100% it would obviously affect Auburn. But if Broome is at his normal level, Auburn is capable of winning it all. The way Florida gave up points in the paint to Texas Tech in the Elite 8 will be noted by the Tigers. Florida has needed great escapes against UConn and Texas Tech in this tournament, and while the Gators' clutch play down the stretch in each game was impressive, it's tough to keep winning that way. Auburn looked vulnerable late in the season but won its first three tournament games by double digits and led Michigan State by 10 or more for most of its six-point Elite Eight win. Florida did win 90-81 at Auburn on Feb. 8, but it's hard to pass on Auburn getting points. Workers look at a logo guide as they prepare this year's court for the Final Four in San Antonio. (AP Photo/Eric Gay) (ASSOCIATED PRESS) Houston (+4.5) over Duke, 8:49 p.m. Saturday Duke looks unbeatable in this tournament. But so did 1991 UNLV, 1999 Duke, 2015 Kentucky, 2021 Gonzaga and a few other dominant favorites. And with a Final Four this strong, no team is guaranteed to win two games. Not even Cooper Flagg and Duke. Advertisement The late matchup Saturday is fascinating. Duke is the most efficient offense that has ever tracked, barely ahead of fellow Final Four entrant Florida and 2015 Wisconsin. The Blue Devils will go against Houston, which was the No. 1 most efficient defense this season. It held Tennessee, a very good offensive team, to 15 points in the first half of the Elite Eight. While Duke has had vibes of UConn the past two tournaments, UConn didn't have a matchup as tough as Houston in either of those title runs. Houston isn't one dimensional either, with KenPom's No. 10 offense (Duke isn't either with its No. 4 defense). This won't be easy for Flagg and his team to advance, no matter how dominant the Blue Devils have been. There's a reason Duke is favored. The Blue Devils are a deserving favorite to win it all and have passed every analytics and eye test. This is a very good college basketball team. But so is Houston, and we're long overdue for a couple of great, close games.
USA Today
01-04-2025
- Sport
- USA Today
2025 Final Four odds, early predictions for Duke vs. Houston, Auburn vs. Florida
2025 Final Four odds, early predictions for Duke vs. Houston, Auburn vs. Florida The 2025 men's Final Four will feature four No. 1 seeds for the first time since 2008 and the second time ever, which would make a prediction of what might happen as difficult as ever if not for the fact this Final Four also includes one of the most dominant 1-seeds in recent memory. The Duke Blue Devils have the highest net rating in the history of rankings (which date back to 2002), illustrating just how dominant they've been this season. So, there's no confusion about which remaining team is the best. Duke is the +100 national championship favorite for a reason. The biggest thing giving Houston, Florida and Auburn supporters hope is the fact they're also some of the highest-rated teams ever. It all makes for what should be a fascinating finish to the college basketball season. These are my predictions for how it'll play out, with odds via BetMGM. Florida vs. Auburn Best bet: Florida moneyline While I like Florida to win this game (the Gators were my original championship pick), I'm not completely comfortable betting on the Gators to pull away by more than a 3-pointer, which is why I favor the moneyline over laying the 2.5-point spread. Florida is just 1-3 ATS since the start of the tournament, while the Tigers are 3-1. As the spread suggests, this game could come down to the final possession. Final score: Florida 83, Auburn 82 Houston vs. Duke Best bet: Duke -5.5 If you didn't get this spread at the opening 4.5-point line, don't worry. I think there's still room to lay more points without much sweat. As I mentioned before, the Blue Devils are one of the best teams we've seen in recent memory. They don't have many weaknesses. Even with Houston being KenPom's top-rated defense this season, Cooper Flagg and company are a challenge unlike any the Cougars have seen. Not to mention, the Devils boast a top-five defense themselves. Ultimately, I expect Duke's shot-making ability from the perimeter to make the difference. Final score: Duke 78, Houston 66 National Championship Duke vs. Florida While we're here, I'll go ahead and take a stab at an early championship pick, beginning with an admission of stubbornness. Not only did I pick Florida to win the national championship in my original bracket, I doubled down in my second-chance bracket. Today is when I submit to Duke being the rightful favorite. If the Gators win, it'll be a slight upset. The thing I underestimated about Duke was how long it could sustain such a dominant level of play while being led by underclassmen (they have three freshmen in the starting lineup), but that hasn't been a problem to this point. Sometimes a team's talent is too good to fail, and that appears to be the case here, which is why I'm no longer expecting a letdown. With that said, Duke's size and length has the potential to give the Gators trouble. Look for the Blue Devils to close driving lanes and force contested threes. If the Gators hit enough, they have a chance. If not, Duke takes it. Final score: Duke 84, Florida 80
