If Matthew Stafford misses time, Vegas says Rams' point spreads don't change much
It's hard to completely comprehend how Stafford missing time would affect the Rams' on-field ability, but Yahoo Sports' Ben Fawkes looked at it in a different way to try and shed some light on the subject. Fawkes looked at how much a quarterback affects their team's point spread. For instance, if the Rams' are favored by a touchdown, would they still be favored if you swapped out Stafford for Jimmy Garoppolo? Or, how much would that seven-point spread decrease with the quarterback switch?
Fawkes talked to 12 oddsmakers from 11 legal sportsbooks and asked them the point difference spread for a team if their quarterback played or didn't against a "league-average team." Stafford tied with Caleb Williams and Kyler Murray for the 16th-highest difference among starting quarterbacks with a 4.10-point difference. For reference, only Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts had a difference of more than six points.
This doesn't confirm the idea that the Rams would be fine with Garoppolo if Stafford couldn't suit up, but it certainly leads a little more credence to the theory. Plus, the Rams would still have their same collection of skill position players and head coach Sean McVay running the offense. That counts for something.
Now, the Rams obviously would want Stafford to play all 17 games and (hopefully) in the postseason. However, Vegas doesn't seem too worried about how it would affect the Rams' chances of winning relative to the rest of the 32 quarterbacks in the league.
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