Global trade deterioration eases in Jun: S&P Global PMI data
The seasonally-adjusted global PMI new export orders index, sponsored by JPMorgan, rose to 49.1 in June, up from 48 in May. Posting below the 50 neutral mark for a third successive month, the latest data indicated another contraction in trade activity.
While the global manufacturing sector's export contraction persisted in June, the rate of decline softened to the slowest in the current three-month sequence, Jingyi Pan, economics associate director of operations-IMPG at S&P Global Market Intelligence, wrote on the company's website.
Global trade conditions continued to deteriorate at the end Q2 2025 and the drop rate eased for a second month in a row and was only marginal, S&P Global Market Intelligence said. The number of top ten trading economies reporting higher goods exports was just two at the end of Q2: India and the US. India continued to lead export growth by a wide margin with a further acceleration in the growth rate.
Further front-loading of goods orders ahead of the higher US tariffs deadline (July 9) supported the slower pace of deterioration in goods trade.
This was evident with global production growth resuming at the quickest pace since February as manufacturers worked through existing orders in the lead up to the anticipated deadline.
Additionally, stock building was again elevated among US manufacturers, though subdued across the rest of the world.
Sentiment data also pointed to muted optimism regarding growth in the year ahead. Business confidence stayed below the series average reflecting some apprehension regarding the outlook, especially surrounding trade.
Mentions of 'uncertainty' among goods producers were also elevated at multiples of the historical average, albeit down further from the peak in April.
Even if trade uncertainty should ease in the coming months - the hangover from front-loading of goods orders in the first half of 2025 may lead to more subdued trade conditions in the coming months, Pan observed.
The contraction in export business was broad-based in June, with the rates of reduction softening across both developed and emerging markets.
After recording a steeper rate of export contraction for the first time in three years, emerging markets export business declined marginally at the end of the second quarter, he added.
The number of top ten trading economies reporting higher goods exports remained at just two at the end of Q2 2025: India and the United States.
India continued to lead export growth by a wide margin with a further acceleration in the rate of expansion. Demand strengthened from across the globe, especially from the United States. This led to Indian manufacturing exports rising at the third-fastest pace since data collection began for the series in March 2005.
Goods export orders growth also accelerated in the United States to the quickest pace in just over a year despite trade policy impact.
Modest slowdown in goods trade activity was recorded in Japan and South Korea, while only marginal declines were reported in the European Union and China.
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