Latest news with #JingyiPan
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Business Standard
01-08-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
China factory activity shrinks in July, S&P index dips below 50 mark
China's manufacturing activity unexpectedly contracted in July from a month ago, according to a private survey, adding to worrying signs about the economy's momentum in the period ahead. The results of the private survey were in line with the official reading released Thursday, which showed factory activity deteriorated at the worst pace in three months. The National Bureau of Statistics blamed the deterioration on disruptions caused by high temperatures, heavy rain and flooding in some regions. Following solid economic growth in the first half of 2025, China may see weakening momentum going forward as tariff front-running by exporters wanes. Consumer sentiment remains sluggish despite the help from government subsidies, which are expected to have a diminishing impact due to a high base of comparison in late 2024. 'The latest survey indicated that manufacturing production fell for only the second time since October 2023,' Jingyi Pan, economics associate director at S&P Global, said in the statement. 'Demand from overseas remained subdued on the back of global trade uncertainty.' New export orders contracted for a fourth straight month and at a faster pace than in June, according to the survey. While input prices increased for the first time in five months, firms weren't able to pass on their rising costs to customers as they lowered selling prices again, it showed. The results of the private survey have tended to be stronger than those from the official poll over the previous year as exports stayed strong. The two surveys cover different sample sizes, locations and business types, with the private poll focusing on small and export-oriented firms. The private PMI is no longer named after Caixin after the media group ended its sponsorship last month.
Fibre2Fashion
12-07-2025
- Business
- Fibre2Fashion
Global trade deterioration eases in Jun: S&P Global PMI data
Global trade conditions continued to deteriorate at the end of the second quarter (Q2) this year and the rate of decline eased for a second successive month and was only marginal, worldwide purchasing managers' index (PMI) surveys compiled by S&P Global Market Intelligence indicate. The seasonally-adjusted global PMI new export orders index, sponsored by JPMorgan, rose to 49.1 in June, up from 48 in May. Posting below the 50 neutral mark for a third successive month, the latest data indicated another contraction in trade activity. While the global manufacturing sector's export contraction persisted in June, the rate of decline softened to the slowest in the current three-month sequence, Jingyi Pan, economics associate director of operations-IMPG at S&P Global Market Intelligence, wrote on the company's website. Global trade conditions continued to deteriorate at the end Q2 2025 and the drop rate eased for a second month in a row and was only marginal, S&P Global Market Intelligence said. The number of top ten trading economies reporting higher goods exports was just two at the end of Q2: India and the US. India continued to lead export growth by a wide margin with a further acceleration in the growth rate. Further front-loading of goods orders ahead of the higher US tariffs deadline (July 9) supported the slower pace of deterioration in goods trade. This was evident with global production growth resuming at the quickest pace since February as manufacturers worked through existing orders in the lead up to the anticipated deadline. Additionally, stock building was again elevated among US manufacturers, though subdued across the rest of the world. Sentiment data also pointed to muted optimism regarding growth in the year ahead. Business confidence stayed below the series average reflecting some apprehension regarding the outlook, especially surrounding trade. Mentions of 'uncertainty' among goods producers were also elevated at multiples of the historical average, albeit down further from the peak in April. Even if trade uncertainty should ease in the coming months - the hangover from front-loading of goods orders in the first half of 2025 may lead to more subdued trade conditions in the coming months, Pan observed. The contraction in export business was broad-based in June, with the rates of reduction softening across both developed and emerging markets. After recording a steeper rate of export contraction for the first time in three years, emerging markets export business declined marginally at the end of the second quarter, he added. The number of top ten trading economies reporting higher goods exports remained at just two at the end of Q2 2025: India and the United States. India continued to lead export growth by a wide margin with a further acceleration in the rate of expansion. Demand strengthened from across the globe, especially from the United States. This led to Indian manufacturing exports rising at the third-fastest pace since data collection began for the series in March 2005. Goods export orders growth also accelerated in the United States to the quickest pace in just over a year despite trade policy impact. Modest slowdown in goods trade activity was recorded in Japan and South Korea, while only marginal declines were reported in the European Union and China. Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)
Fibre2Fashion
13-06-2025
- Business
- Fibre2Fashion
May global trade conditions subdued despite stock-building: S&P GMI
Global trade conditions further deteriorated midway through the second quarter (Q2) this year as the impact of additional US tariffs, announced when April began, continued to dampen export performance, according to the worldwide purchasing managers' index (PMI) surveys compiled by S&P Global Market Intelligence (S&P GMI). The seasonally adjusted global PMI new export orders index, sponsored by JP Morgan and compiled by S&P Global, rose to 48 in May, up from 47.5 in April. Posting below the 50 neutral mark for a second consecutive month, the latest reading indicated that trade activity contracted modestly again. Global trade conditions further deteriorated midway through Q2 2025 as the impact of additional US tariffs continued to dampen export performance, according to the worldwide PMI surveys compiled by S&P Global Market Intelligence. The manufacturing sector's export contraction persisted in May, at a slower pace over April's. Manufacturers' confidence picked up in May from April's low. Despite easing since April, the rate of decline was the second-fastest in the past 20 months, reflecting still-subdued trade performance, an analysis by Jingyi Pan, economics associate director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said. The manufacturing sector's export contraction persisted in May, albeit at a slower pace compared to April, when higher US tariffs had been announced. The pace at which goods export orders fell was among the fastest in recent months, reflecting a backdrop of softening manufacturing sector conditions: the PMI's forward-looking new orders index signalled weakening global demand, registering the sharpest reduction in new work at factories since last October. While stock building efforts at manufacturers (notably in the US) had helped to alleviate the fall in export orders in May, as seen via the first rise in global stocks of purchases in just over two-and-a-half years, it is uncertain how much longer the front-loading of goods orders ahead of higher US tariff implementation will last, posing a downside risk to output and trade flows in the months ahead, Jingyi noted. Manufacturers' confidence picked up in May from April's low following the announcement of US tariffs on April 2. Optimism among global goods producers improved for the first time in three months. Hopes for better global trade conditions and less uncertainty reportedly drove the pick-up in sentiment. Regionally, May's PMI data alluded to another month of broad-based deterioration in trade conditions, but was led by emerging markets for the first time since May 2022. Developed economies saw export orders deteriorate at a more modest pace in May, though this was largely underpinned by an alleviation of conditions in the United States, Jingyi wrote. After falling at a solid pace in April, US export orders contracted only marginally amidst renewed goods exports growth. The improvement in US goods export conditions supported the slower fall in in developed markets goods exports. The number of top ten trading economies reporting higher goods exports rose from one to two in May, with the United States joining India in expansion territory. But the rate at which US goods exports rose was only marginal, paling in comparison with overall US new orders growth, which was buoyed by unprecedented inventory build-up amid tariff worries. India meanwhile saw another sharp rise in export orders for goods in May, but the rate of expansion eased in tandem with overall new orders. On the other hand, Canada and the United Kingdom led the downturn in goods trade with especially sharp reductions in export orders, even though the rates of decline eased in both cases compared to April. Tariffs and elevated trade uncertainty remained the key dampener for export performance for both the nations. More moderate rates of contraction in export orders were observed for China and Japan, the former notably falling at the quickest pace in nearly two years. Marginal rates of reduction were observed for the remaining economies: South Korea, Brazil, the European Union and Russia. Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)
