Trump's ceasefire hinges on Israel

Politico

24-06-2025

Presented by
With help from Nahal Toosi and Daniel Lippman
Subscribe here | Email Robbie | Email Eric
The fate of the ceasefire President DONALD TRUMP announced Monday that ended 12 days of deadly strikes between Israel and Iran will depend on whether Israel can keep from attacking its longtime foe in the region, analysts and former officials say.
Israel and Iran both violated the ceasefire within hours of it taking effect, and Trump has expressed frustration with both countries. Before leaving for the NATO summit in the Netherlands, Trump tugged at the tension: 'We basically have two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard that they don't know what the fuck they're doing.'
Much of Trump's anger was directed toward the United States' closest Middle East ally. En route to the NATO summit, he sent a separate Truth Social missive to Israel saying that any bombing would be a 'MAJOR VIOLATION.' And he directly spoke with Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU in what was a reportedly tense conversation.
MONA YACOUBIAN, who leads the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank in Washington, argued to NatSec Daily that the fate of this 'shaky ceasefire' will come down to Trump's ability to keep pressure on Israel to refrain from striking Iran.
Trump is already using the goodwill he's earned with the Israelis after ordering the strike on Iran's nuclear facilities to keep Israel in compliance. 'We've already seen evidence of it now … with the president getting on the phone and saying to the Israelis: 'Stand down,'' she explained.
At least for now, it appears that both countries are committed to the deal. Iranian leaders have vowed today that the country will not strike Israel first, seemingly throwing the ball back in Israel's court. Iranian President MASOUD PEZESHKIAN said today that the 'imposed' war was over. Meanwhile, Trump walked back some flirtation with support for regime change in Iran as a gesture to Tehran.
Netanyahu issued a statement insisting that Israel had 'refrained from additional attacks' after the conversation with Trump and clarified that its action was taken in response to an Iranian strike that began just before the ceasefire took effect.
But MICHAEL SINGH, who was senior director for Middle East affairs at the National Security Council during the GEORGE W. BUSH administration, cautions that the ceasefire creates a 'huge strategic challenge for Israel.'
'For Israel, the risk is you have to sit and watch as some targets appear that you would have wanted to strike, but now can't,' Singh said.
'Maybe they have to watch as Iran tries to rebuild its nuclear program,' he continued. 'And they have to now put a lot of trust and hope in the United States to be able to deliver some kind of diplomatic agreement that preserves the gains that you have made militarily.'
Considering the head of Iran's atomic energy agency told an Iranian state media outlet today that there will be 'no hiatus' on its nuclear program, Israel may need a lot of trust and hope.
The Inbox
TRUMP'S FLIGHT LOGS: Trump had a long flight from the United States to the Netherlands today, which gave him time to throw some punches at the alliance ahead of the NATO summit.
Aboard Air Force One, Trump equivocated on whether he'd uphold NATO's Article Five commitment for collective defense. He told reporters that it 'depends on your definition.'
'There are numerous definitions of Article 5. You know that, right? But I'm committed to being their friends.' He added he would provide 'an exact definition when I get there. I just don't want to do it on the back of an airplane.'
Trump also posted on Truth Social a graphic highlighting Spain's protests to the five percent of GDP spending target the alliance is pursuing. That post came as other alliance members bristled over Spain (and Slovakia) launching last-minute protests before the confab.
On top of all that, Trump shared screenshots on Truth Social of very adulatory messages from NATO chief MARK RUTTE ahead of the conference.
MARK YOUR CALENDARS: As the 2025 NATO summit in The Hague comes to a close, join POLITICO's top U.S. and European defense reporters for a live, on-the-ground debrief for Pros breaking down what really happened — and what it means for the future of the alliance.
We'll dig into the key outcomes from the summit, including rising tensions over burden-sharing, the push to increase defense spending across member states, new commitments on Ukraine and the alliance's eastern front and the evolving strategy on deterrence and defense in the face of Russian aggression. Our reporters will also explore behind-the-scenes dynamics among leaders, debates over NATO expansion and the alliance's role in addressing emerging threats.
The conversation will be moderated by our own Deputy Managing Editor for Global Security Dave Brown and feature analysis from our own Paul McLeary, Felicia Schwartz, Nick Vinocur and Chris Lunday. The briefing will take place at 4 p.m. Washington time Wednesday.
A DUAL-USE CEASEFIRE: Trump is using the ceasefire between Iran and Israel as a leverage point in trade negotiations with China.
As our own Ben Lefebvre, Phelim, Megan Messerly and Daniel Desrochers report, Trump is arguing on social media that the ceasefire between Israel and Iran is a boon not just for stability in the region, but also for China amid ongoing trade talks. China, he suggests, benefits from the fact that Iran won't block the Strait of Hormuz now in response to the U.S. strikes.
It's the clearest sign that Trump sees the United States' role as a world peacekeeper as something that merits compensation, a point he has emphasized to allies across the globe. Still, it's unclear if it'll move the needle for the complex trade talks between Washington and Beijing.
PURGING MORE DIPLOMATS? The Trump administration this week quietly changed personnel guidelines in ways that appear to make it easier to lay off U.S. diplomats depending on whether they're based in a particular office, as opposed to their performance or skills.
The convoluted changes are laid out in the Foreign Affairs Manual, and they seem designed to help cut diplomats based in the United States, such as at the State Department's headquarters in Foggy Bottom.
This and related moves by the Trump team have infuriated the American Foreign Service Association — the diplomats' union — which the administration is trying to strip of bargaining rights.
In a statement, AFSA warned that the department can now 'purge an entire domestic office while giving lip service to factors such as employee evaluations, veterans' status and language ability.' Such a move runs counter to longstanding rules that have a more holistic approach to evaluating diplomats, who rotate into new offices every few years.
Spokespeople for the State Department did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
IT'S TUESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at [e-mail], and follow Eric on X @ebazaileimil.
While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's global security team on X and Bluesky at: @dave_brown24, @HeidiVogt, @jessicameyers, @RosiePerper, @nahaltoosi.bsky.social‬, @PhelimKine, @ak_mack, @felschwartz, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @reporterjoe, @JackDetsch, @samuelskove, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130 and @delizanickel
Keystrokes
HOLLAND HIT WITH CYBERATTACKS: The Netherlands' National Cyber Security Centre is blaming a pro-Russian hacktivist group for a wave of distributed denial-of-service attacks targeting a dozen Dutch organizations, including several municipalities.
Our colleague ANTOANETA ROUSSI reports that the center pointed to the pro-Russian hacktivist group NoName057(16), which claimed the attacks. The group has targeted other NATO countries, including Belgium and Romania, in the past year with such DDoS attacks.
The attacks coincide with the NATO summit in The Hague and appear aimed at sowing confusion and stretching the capacity of public sector institutions involved in organizing the event.
The Complex
FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — VETERANS' HARM MITIGATION CONCERN: Veterans' advocacy groups are asking the Pentagon to refrain from cutting the Defense Department's efforts to respond to harm against civilians in conflict zones.
In a letter shared first with NatSec Daily, the groups Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America, Minority Veterans of America, Veterans for Peace and the Secure Families Initiative, among others, call on Defense Secretary PETE HEGSETH to protect servicemembers from the trauma that civilian harm creates by preserving those programs.
'Our nation's service members deserve the tools to prevent costly mistakes. Too many veterans carry the invisible wounds of war, including moral injury and psychological trauma resulting from unintentional harm to civilians during operations,' the groups wrote. 'We urge you to maintain and strengthen the U.S. military's civilian harm mitigation initiatives, including ensuring the critical staffing and resourcing at the Civilian Protection Center of Excellence and across the military.'
On the Hill
IRAN CANCELLATIONS: Planned House and Senate briefings on the Trump administration strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities were rescheduled for Thursday, per our colleagues Meredith Lee Hill, Jordain Carney and Nicholas Wu.
Senate Minority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER called the postponement 'outrageous, evasive and derelict.'
And it's not the only change in plans on the Hill today. Rep. THOMAS MASSIE (R-Ky.) is backing off on his War Powers resolution, Punchbowl News reported this morning, with Massie telling the outlet that 'it might not be necessary if there's no hostilities. The resolution is to withdraw or end hostilities.' A competing War Powers resolution introduced by Rep. GREGORY MEEKS (D-N.Y.), JIM HIMES (D-Conn.) and ADAM SMITH (D-Wash.) can't come to the floor until mid-July, meaning Democrats' ability to hold the Trump administration to the fire is limited.
DEMS' NEW NATSEC TASK FORCE: House Democratic Caucus Chair PETE AGUILAR of California announced that his party is launching a new national security task force, in a clear sign they're looking to bolster their messaging on the issues ahead of the 2026 election.
Rep. JASON CROW (D-Colo.), a former Army Ranger who serves on both the House Foreign Affairs and Intelligence committees, will chair the task force. Its members will include Reps. MIKIE SHERRILL (D-N.J.), MAGGIE GOODLANDER (D-N.H.) and DEREK TRAN (D-Calif.). All its members have served in the U.S. military or held national security roles before entering electoral politics.
The move comes as Democrats look to recruit candidates with national security credentials to run in competitive 2026 races as a way to win back control of Congress and build their bench of political talent across the country.
Broadsides
THAILAND-CAMBODIA BORDER BLOCK: Worsening frictions between Thailand and Cambodia have prompted Bangkok to seal its land borders to traffic to and from its Southeast Asian neighbor.
Thailand's seven border provinces have closed crossing points — which are arteries for trade and tourism between the two countries — to anyone besides people seeking medical treatment and students, the Bangkok Post reported today.
That follows Cambodia's Prime Minister HUN MANET's move Sunday to block imports of oil and gas from Thailand. Those tit for tat provocations mark an escalation in tensions between the two countries sparked by a deadly firefight between their military forces last month in a disputed border region.
The tensions tee up potential conflict in Southeast Asia at a time when China has looked to flex its muscle in the region. Beijing has also deepened its historically tight ties with Phnom Penh in recent years, and it's unclear whether the U.S. may try to position itself as a broker between the two countries.
Transitions
— ALEX ENTZ has been detailed to the White House to be a director for international economics at the National Economic Council. He most recently was an international economist in the Africa office of the Treasury Department.
— LORRIE KING is now deputy chief of staff at the Office of the National Cyber Director. She most recently was vice president of operations and chief of staff at Growth Energy.
— STEVEN SCHLEIEN is now acting deputy Defense secretary for defense continuity and mission assurance. He continues as acting deputy Defense secretary for Arctic and global resilience.
— JULIA TRENT is now director in Ervin Graves Strategy Group's defense, aerospace and cybersecurity practice group. She most recently was deputy director of member services and chief clerk for the House Veterans' Affairs Committee.
— ARIELLA CAMERA is joining the Healthcare Distribution Alliance as senior director of policy. She previously was the deputy director of primary health care at the U.S. Agency for International Development.
What to Read
— Daniel DePetris, MSNBC: How Trump took advantage of Iran's face-saving retaliation strategy
— ANTONY BLINKEN, The New York Times: Trump's Iran Strike Was a Mistake. I Hope It Succeeds.
— LLOYD AUSTIN, The Financial Times: Europe should not go it alone on defense
Tomorrow Today
— House Select Strategic Competition Between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party Committee, 9 a.m.: Algorithms and Authoritarians: Why U.S. AI Must Lead
— Henry L. Stimson Center, 9 a.m.: 'America First' in a Changing World
— House Foreign Affairs Committee, 10 a.m.: Spies, Lies, and Mismanagement: Examining the U.S. Agency for Global Media's Downfall
— Center for a New American Security, 10 a.m.: The Future of U.S. Policy in the Middle East Amid Israel-Iran Conflict
— Atlantic Council and Harvard University Law School's International Human Rights Clinic, 10 a.m: 'Airstrikes and Atrocities: A Legal Assessment of Russia's Aerial Campaign in Ukraine'
— Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe, 2 p.m.: Advancing the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace deal
— Brookings Institution's Foreign Policy Program, 2 p.m.: Searching for peace in post-Qaddafi Libya
— Israel Policy Forum, 2 p.m.: Assessing the War in Iran
— Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, 3 p.m.: Open hearing on nominations
Thanks to our editors, Rosie Perper and Emily Lussier, who must refrain from striking us constantly.