Hochul leads Stefanik by 14 points in NY governor poll

Yahoo

12-08-2025

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) holds a 14-point lead over Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) in a new poll from Siena, down from the 23-point lead the incumbent enjoyed in June.
Fifty-three percent of those polled said they approve of the job Hochul is doing, while 42 percent disapproved and 5 percent didn't have an opinion.
The poll suggested that independents are shifting toward Stefanik, which could help the Republican if she is to deprive Hochul of a second term.
'More than two-thirds of Democrats are with Hochul and three-quarters of Republicans are with Stefanik. Independents are closely divided, leaning toward Stefanik, after favoring Hochul in June,' Siena pollster Steven Greenberg said in a Tuesday release.
'New York City voters remain solidly behind Hochul, however downstate suburban voters went from favoring Hochul by 11 points in June to narrowly favoring Stefanik now, and upstate voters had given Hochul a 12-point lead, and are now virtually evenly divided,' he added.
Stefanik, a vocal critic of illegal immigration and proponent for deporting immigrants lacking permanent legal status, will likely capitalize on support for tougher immigration policies.
But 41 percent of voters said they don't know who Stefanik is, signaling the Republican must do more just to make voters aware of her. Thirty-two percent of those who do know who she is held an unfavorable view of her in the poll, compared to 27 percent who said she's likable.
'Stefanik clearly has room to grow with voters – either positively or negatively. While 49 percent of voters say they are very or somewhat familiar with her, 46 percent are not very or not at all familiar with Stefanik,' Greenberg said.
'Republicans think she has the right experience to be governor, Democrats don't, and independents are closely divided. More than three-quarters of Republicans think it would be good for New York if Stefanik ran and won, while more than two-thirds of Democrats and a plurality of independents think it would be bad for the state.'
According to the poll, more than half of voters, 58 percent, had an overall unfavorable view of Republicans in Congress. Thirty-four percent said GOP members in Washington are favorable and 8 percent said they don't know or have no opinion.
Comparably, 49 percent said Democrats in Congress were unfavorable, 42 percent said they were favorable and 9 percent didn't know or had no opinion.
'The latest Siena poll is catastrophic for Kathy Hochul as she is losing independent voters to Elise Stefanik, is below 50 percent on the ballot, and only 35 percent of voters want to re-elect Kathy Hochul as voters are increasingly looking to Elise Stefanik to deliver new leadership,' Team Elise Executive Director Alex DeGrasse said in a statement sent to The Hill.
'Chairwoman Elise Stefanik will continue to focus on providing results such as delivering the largest middle class tax cut in New York history,' DeGrasse continued. ' She will repeal Kathy Hochul's failed bail reform and dangerous sanctuary cities policies and cut taxes for New Yorkers.'
The Hill reached out to Hochul's campaign for comment.
Updated at 12:47 p.m. EDT.
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