5 early takeaways from the New Jersey primaries

The Hill

a day ago

The matchup for New Jersey's gubernatorial race is set, with Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli having won their respective nominations Tuesday.
Ciattarelli's victory, after having won the GOP nomination four years ago and gained President Trump's coveted endorsement, seemed all but assured heading into the primary. Sherrill was the slight favorite in a crowded six-person field, but she ultimately prevailed comfortably by a double-digit margin over her next closest competitor.
Here are five early takeaways from the Garden State's primaries Tuesday:
The Democratic race to succeed term-limited Gov. Phil Murphy (D) seemed wide open throughout most of the months-long primary battle.
A half-dozen major candidates with extensive resumes had gotten in the race, and polls consistently showed Sherrill had a slight lead, though within the margin of error. That lead grew somewhat in the race's final weeks, albeit with many voters still undecided and the state's polling being at times shaky in recent years.
But results quickly came in after polls closed. As of the latest vote count, Sherrill is on track to win with about 34 percent of the vote, while Newark Mayor Ras Baraka came in second with about 19.5 percent.
Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop, who came in third, had high hopes for an upset as he ran an outsider, grassroots campaign trying to buck the political establishment. He sat out each of the state's county nominating conventions, a plurality of which Sherrill won, as he sought to lean into the anti-establishment sentiment seen among the state's Democrats for the past year.
But Fulop ultimately was unable to get close to Sherrill's percentage after running a policy-driven progressive campaign. Sherrill is also currently on track to win in most of the state's 21 counties.
If there's one name that dominated the GOP primary, it was President Trump.
Ciattarelli and his main opponent, former talk radio host Bill Spadea, engaged in a battle for months to prove who was more supportive of Trump's 'MAGA' agenda in order to gain the president's endorsement.
A former state Assembly member who narrowly lost the 2021 election by three points to Murphy, Ciattarelli has undergone a significant evolution regarding Trump. He had denounced him when Trump first launched his campaign for the 2016 race, calling him a 'charlatan' and unfit to serve as president.
But Ciattarelli moved much closer to Trump as he made another run for governor this year, a change numerous other once-skeptical Republicans have had since Trump first entered politics. He met with Trump at his golf club in Bedminster, N.J., earlier this year before Trump endorsed him.
Ciattarelli also went after Spadea on a similar argument that he had been critical of Trump and wanted the party to turn elsewhere for its nominee in 2024.
Ciattarelli was already well on his way to winning the nomination before Trump's endorsement, having a big lead in the polls and a significant fundraising advantage. But Trump's support essentially clinched it, and the candidates' eagerness for his backing demonstrated the poignancy of his political influence.
Ciattarelli is currently on track to win the nomination with about two-thirds of the vote.
Beyond the results themselves, Tuesday's primaries were set to be an early test of the political establishment's power in New Jersey after a consequential year for the state in 2024.
The longstanding ballot design that featured the 'county line,' in which candidates who received an endorsement from the county party were given a preferential location on the ballot, was struck down as unconstitutional. The federal judge in the case ruled it gave the endorsed candidates an unfair advantage.
This happened as Sen. Andy Kim (D-N.J.), who had been a relatively young House member, fended off New Jersey first lady Tammy Murphy for the Democratic nomination for an open Senate seat.
But the results demonstrated how the political establishment still wields considerable power despite the county line not being in place anymore.
One big boost to Sherrill in the Democratic primary was her victory in 10 of the county conventions, all of them in the highly populated North Jersey. Former State Senate President Steve Sweeney is the only one who came close to that total with six, all in South Jersey.
Along with the county endorsements, Sherrill enjoyed backing from numerous county officials in the north, as well as two former Democratic governors. Fulop tried to work outside the system, but Sherrill dominated with likely wins in all but two counties that endorsed her and even appears on track to win two or three counties that endorsed Sweeney.
The same dynamic also played out on the Republican side, with Ciattarelli overwhelmingly receiving most endorsements from county parties and local officials.
Controversy has surrounded Atlantic City Mayor Marty Small Sr. for over a year as he's faced a criminal indictment charging him with assault and witness tampering, among other charges. But he seems poised to fend off a primary challenge as he seeks a second full term in office.
Prosecutors allege that he and his wife, Atlantic City School District Superintendent La'Quetta Small, physically and emotionally abused their teenage daughter. In one incident, they allege the mayor, who has served since 2019, hit his daughter on the head with a broom until she lost consciousness.
Small and his wife have pleaded not guilty and denied the allegations, but faced a primary challenge from former casino workers union head Bob McDevitt.
Small said ahead of the primary that he trusted that voters knew who he is as a person and didn't think the charges would be a major issue in the race. Issues of public safety and the cleanliness of the city took center stage.
Small was on track to win comfortably, with more than 60 percent of the vote, as of the most recent vote count Tuesday evening.
Observers' eyes were watching to see if New Jersey's primaries would yield any major surprises, but the results mirror what polling suggested would happen.
Despite heavy scrutiny of the polls, having missed how close the 2021 governor's race was and Trump only losing New Jersey by 6 points last year, polling seemed to be mostly on top of where things stood.
The most recent polls had Sherrill breaking into the 30s with the other candidates middling well behind her in the teens or lower, and that's roughly where the results seem to be. Ciattarelli led by as much as 30 points in polling with still up to a third undecided, and he's on track to win by even more than that.
Now the question will be if Republicans can pull off a major upset in November.