Zohran Mamdani's Chances of Beating Andrew Cuomo as New Yorkers Vote—Polls

Newsweek

6 hours ago

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New Yorkers are casting their ballots in New York City's mayoral primary on Tuesday as polls point to a tight race between former Governor Andrew Cuomo and State Assemblymember Zohran Mamdani whose campaign has surged in recent weeks.
Why It Matters
Whoever emerges victorious during the Democratic primary will be the frontrunner in the November general election as New York City remains a liberal stronghold. The nominee will likely become a national figure as the mayor of the largest city in the United States and play a key role addressing challenges like housing and the cost-of-living in the city.
For Cuomo, the mayoral race is a chance at a comeback after he resigned as governor in 2021 over a report from Attorney General Letitia James' office that alleged he sexually harassed multiple female employees and created a toxic working environment. Cuomo has denied the allegations. He has cast himself as a more centrist option, and has focused on affordability, public safety and standing up to President Donald Trump.
Mamdani, the other leading candidate, has become a favorite among the city's progressive voters. He has emphasized issues like a rent freeze to deal with high rent prices and the establishment of a network of city-owned grocery stores intended to combat rising grocery costs—but has faced questions about his experience and whether these policies are feasible.
Photo-illustration by Newsweek/Getty/AP
What To Know
Cuomo held a lead in most polls leading up to Tuesday's primary, though his support waned as Mamdani consolidated the more progressive vote. Notably, New York City uses ranked choice voting—meaning voters will rank their top candidates. In each "round," the candidate with the lowest percentage will be eliminated until a candidate hits a majority.
An Emerson College poll released on Monday showed Mamdani with a lead over Cuomo in the final round of ranked choice voting.
The poll showed Cuomo with a slight lead on the first round of voting—36.4 percent to Mamdani's 33.7 percent. But after eight rounds of ranked choice, Mamdani consolidated support from other candidates to have a slight lead, 51.8 percent to Cuomo's 48.2 percent.
The poll surveyed 833 Democratic primary voters from June 18-20 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.
Rich Azzopardi, a spokesperson for Cuomo, told Newsweek he viewed the poll as an "outlier."
"Every other credible poll in this election, including two released last week, has shown Governor Cuomo with a double-digit lead, which is exactly where this election will end tomorrow. Between now and then, we will continue to fight for every vote like he will fight for every New Yorker as mayor," Azzopardi said.
Meanwhile, a Marist poll released last week gave Cuomo a lead.
On the first round of polling, 43 percent of respondents said they backed Cuomo compared to 31 percent who said they would cast their ballots for Mamdani. By the final round, however, Cuomo received 55 percent support, compared to Mamdani's 45 percent.
The poll surveyed 1,350 likely voters from June 9 to 12 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.
A survey last week from the conservative think tank Manhattan Institute also showed Cuomo with a lead, with 56 percent of respondents saying they planned to vote for the former governor by the final round, compared to 44 percent who ranked Mamdani.
That poll surveyed 1,000 likely voters from June 11 to 16, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
Mamdani's chances of winning the primary surged in betting markets like Polymarket and Kalshi on Monday after the Emerson poll was released, but Cuomo still held a slight lead in betting odds.
Joseph Viteritti, the Thomas Hunter Professor of Public Policy at Hunter College, told Newsweek that Cuomo has benefited from name recognition.
"It's hard to break through that list and come out at the top, so name recognition really serves him well," he said. "He was governor for several terms, and people know who he is. It can also work against you, because he's gotten some negative press. But in the end, I think it's given him a substantial boost."
Mamdani, meanwhile, has been the most "outwardly progressive candidate in the race," Viteritti said.
Endorsements from left-leaning politicians like Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York, have also helped him, he said.
"He comes out as the most progressive and the most distinguished if you're looking for an alternative to Andrew Cuomo in this race," Viteritti added.
Mitchell Moss, Henry Hart Rice Professor of Urban Policy and Planning at New York University, told Newsweek the race will be "high turnout" despite concerns that high temperatures, forecasted to potentially reach 100 degrees, could reduce turnout. New Yorkers, he said, are very concerned about the mayoral race and will view voting as important.
"Nothing stops New Yorkers," he said. "Nothing. Not the pope, the weather, hurricanes."
Other candidates like New York City Comptroller Brad Lander or City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams have "zero" chance of an upset, Moss said. Both candidates have consistently trailed in the polls and have not led any public surveys.
More than 380,000 New Yorkers voted early, according to the city's board of elections.
Early voters included 30,816 in the Bronx, 142,735 in Brooklyn, 122,642 in Manhattan, 75,778 in Queens and 12,367 on Staten Island.
What People Are Saying
Mitchell Moss, Henry Hart Rice Professor of Urban Policy and Planning at NYU, told Newsweek: "This is a great election because it demonstrates that New Yorkers care. Mamdani has mobilized young people who generally turn out at a very low rate. He's done a fantastic job of energizing people under 30 to care about the elections, which was an achievement by itself. We have to recognize that the city's future is in good hands because we are going to have an active electorate. Voting is a habit, so I think that's great. Andrew Cuomo—this is a test about whether New Yorkers believe in redemption. We generally do."
Senator Bernie Sanders, a Vermont independent, endorsed Mamdani and wrote on X, formerly Twitter, last week: "At this dangerous moment in history, status quo politics isn't good enough. We need new leadership that is prepared to stand up to powerful corporate interests & fight for the working class. @ZohranKMamdani is providing that vision. He is the best choice for NYC mayor."
Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who endorsed Cuomo, wrote on X earlier this month: "I care deeply about the future of our city, and since leaving office, it has been difficult to watch its struggles, especially since the pandemic. In sizing up the field in the race for mayor, there is one candidate whose management experience and government know-how stand above the others: @andrewcuomo."
What Happens Next?
Moss said the primary is only a "warm up for November." Whoever prevails will face off against a Republican candidate, as well as Mayor Eric Adams, an independent. If Mamdani loses, he could also run on the Working Families party line, Moss added.