India should prioritise a service-focused trade deal with US: NITI Aayog report
Dr Arvind Virmani, Member of NITI Aayog, released the edition and congratulated the entire team for providing in-depth insights about the latest trade turbulence and India's status in the current trade evolution rounds. He also pointed towards the rising competitiveness, innovation, and strategic efforts to expand India's presence in key markets such as the United States.
This report presented a data-driven picture of current economic health, including the Quarter 3 merchandise exports grew to the mark of 3pc (approx $108.7 billion), service surplus growth of $52.3 billion. The growth of the service sector is driven by a 17 pc growth in India's service exports. This also shows the optimism of global consumers in the Indian economy. India also emerged as the world's fifth-largest exporter with an investment of $269 billion in Digitally Delivered Services (DDS).
The Trade Watch Quarterly report also highlighted that India can leverage the opportunity to expand its footprint in the US market. It's especially for the sectors such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, electric machinery, and others.
The third Trade Watch Quarterly report pointed out the importance of the United States as a key trade destination for India. The report suggested some policy shifts, including targeted export promotion, deep integration into global value chains, and service-focused trade agreements.
The report also highlighted the key sectors, including digital trade and cross-border data flows, including agility in policymaking on making new trade alignments. This thematic edition serves as a base for policymakers, industry, and academia to prioritize key policies regarding trade.
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- Mint
Brokers push back as Sebi wages war on speculation
Brokers and market intermediaries are pushing back at tighter supervision looming over the derivatives market, as mounting losses among retail investors drive the regulator to consider fresh measures. A week after Mint reported that the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) may overhaul the weekly contract expiry schedule if its recent curbs failed to cool the options fever, a brokers' association met Sebi chairman Tuhin Kanta Pandey as part of a routine meeting. A broker who attended the Association of National Exchanges Members of India's (ANMI) 15 July meeting said industry representatives implored the regulator not to discontinue weekly expiries. Sebi may move from the current weekly expiry regime to a single expiry every fortnight, severely curtailing trading opportunities, Mint had reported on 9 July. 'Irreparable damage' 'Removal of weekly expiry will cause irreparable damage to market liquidity and risk management," the broker said. ANMI also called for removing the 2% extreme loss margin on expiry day and reinstating calendar spread benefits, arguing these steps would reduce trading costs and align Indian markets with global standards. Also Read: Sebi flags expiry-day derivatives surge as retail losses top ₹1 trillion Brokers instead suggested Sebi could consider limiting access to weekly options trading to investors who pass a certification—akin to the US Series 7 licence—demonstrating knowledge and risk awareness. Additionally, Sebi could also impose minimum net worth or trading capital requirements and permit only those contracts with adequate open interest and notional-to-premium ratios. The regulator has been focusing on the frenzy in derivatives for a while. 'Adverse consequences' On Thursday, Sebi whole-time member Ananth Narayan G. said at an event, 'On expiry days, comparable turnover in index options is often 350 times or more the turnover in the underlying cash market—an imbalance that is obviously unhealthy, with several potential adverse consequences." He cited Sebi's latest research, which found 91% of individual traders ended FY25 with net losses in futures and options, with aggregate losses exceeding ₹1 trillion. Narayan emphasized, 'There is no question that derivatives and indeed, speculation are vital for price discovery, hedging, and ensuring market depth. But certain trends in our equity derivatives ecosystem have warranted a closer look for a while now." He also acknowledged the potential concerns of market infrastructure institutions, brokers, and other intermediaries, whose revenues may depend heavily on these short-term derivative volumes. "But we must ask ourselves collectively – is all this at all sustainable?", he wondered. Sebi's case rests on growing evidence that short-term contracts, particularly weekly options, have caused 'an unhealthy imbalance in market structures." Will it backfire? However, brokers warn that shutting the door on weekly expiries could backfire. Kamlesh Shah, managing director at Share India Securities and former ANMI president, argued, 'To ban a product is not the solution. The product is in line with international practices where short-term contracts are favoured the most. Banning weekly products may create unwarranted volatility... We have technology available to protect the market from undesirable practices. In addition to that, to protect interest of retail investors, we may introduce product suitability... We therefore feel that the current guideline for weekly contract may continue." Shah of ANMI also made the case for reinstating Bank Nifty as a weekly/fortnightly contract: 'Bank Nifty has been by far the best product India market had ever held. By allowing one benchmark contract for weekly options, Bank Nifty contracts were removed from weekly cycle... We believe that this contract is necessary for shorter duration, keeping in view volatility of the market and international events." Also Read: Lost money to securities fraud? Don't count on a payout from investor protection fund The recent regulatory thrust also follows Sebi's interim order against US-based Jane Street, a major liquidity provider, for alleged manipulation on expiry days. The regulator ordered the seizure of ₹4,800 crore in alleged unlawful gains. While praised for acting against manipulation, the move triggered concerns about new compliance burdens and market uncertainty. "Given the context of the large trading in index options, the regulator wants to see if its recent measures result in a meaningful dip in volumes over the next few weeks. If there isn't much of an impact, fresh proposals could be considered after a due consultative process," the broker cited earlier said. 'Weekly options necessary' K. Suresh, current ANMI president, added, 'Weekly option is required for the purpose of hedging—the only thing is that it should be least disruptive to the market... In the absence of speculators, there will be lull in the market. Sebi should bring in some surveillance—to avoid mischiefs like Jane Street... exchanges have good surveillance, they can stop those trades which will prevent losses to investors." Sebi's policy revamp began in October 2024, with limits on weekly expiries, increased contract lot sizes, higher margins, the withdrawal of calendar spread benefits, and rigorous intraday checks. Further steps in May 2025 targeted position limits, disclosures, and risk metrics. A Sebi study on trading activity in the equity derivatives segment (EDS) released on July 7 found that while the premium turnover of index options was down 9% during December 2024 to May 2025, it was still up 14% from the same period two years ago. Moreover, while the turnover of individuals in premium terms was down 11% year on year, it was up by 36% from the same period two years ago. Also, while the number of unique individuals trading in EDS was down 20% from a year ago during December-May, it was up 24% from two years ago. Heavy trading "India continues to see a relatively very high level of trading in EDS, compared to other markets, particularly in index options," the study found, adding that 91% of individual traders incurred a net loss in FY25, a trend similar to that in the preceding fiscal year. Also Read: Sebi proposes to standardize valuation methods of gold, silver ETFs Brokers have complained of a liquidity crunch, as F&O turnover plunged and bid-ask spreads widened. 'Trading costs are up, and it's the retail segment that is getting squeezed," a broker said on condition of anonymity. While Sebi's intent is retail protection, some worry that traders are being pushed into riskier monthly contracts or even to unofficial markets and crypto substitutes, where regulatory oversight is absent. Sebi officials have maintained that moderating speculative excess is a work in progress, not a one-off. Narayan said at the event, 'We must look to improve the quality of our derivatives market by extending the tenure and maturity of the products and solutions on offer. This specialized area requires ongoing constructive debate and work."
Mint
a few seconds ago
- Mint
Best stocks to buy today, 18 July, recommended by NeoTrader's Raja Venkatraman
Indian stock market benchmarks, Sensex and the Nifty 50, closed with losses on Thursday on profit booking in select heavyweights. The Sensex fell 375 points to end at 82,259.24, while the Nifty 50 settled at 25,111.45, down 0.40%. However, the mid and small-cap segments outperformed. The BSE Midcap index inched up by 0.07 per cent, while the BSE Smallcap index rose 0.30 per cent. Three stocks to trade, recommended by NeoTrader's Raja Venkatraman: CONCORDBIO (Cmp 1920.50) ECLERX(Cmp 3669.10) SHYAMMETL (Cmp 919.80) SHYAMMETL:Buy above 920 and dips to ₹880, stop ₹870 target ₹1000-1020 Stock Market Recap On 17 July, India's leading benchmarks relinquished their early rally and slipped into negative territory, underscoring a shift toward caution among market participants. The Sensex, which had opened 119 points higher at 82,753, dipped to 82,219, while the Nifty, after climbing to 25,230, retreated to 25,101. The retreat highlights investors' growing reluctance to commit fresh capital amid a pair of looming uncertainties. With markets yielding to speculation over US President Trump's stance on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell causing some cold feet. While the White House dismissed reports of an imminent leadership change, Trump's persistent public criticism of the Fed's rate policy has fuelled anxiety about the central bank's autonomy and the potential for monetary volatility. Also, as the August 1 deadline for an India-US trade pact approaches, traders are bracing for last-minute negotiations. New Delhi is reportedly pushing for tariffs more favorable than those secured by Indonesia, and any delay or dilution of terms could weigh further on market sentiment. Outlook for Trading The continued resistance at higher levels shows that the trends are pressured at higher levels as steady supplies are emerging. As we have been mentioning, the trends have been curtailed due to geopolitical trends that have kept the enthusiasm on leash. From a trading perspective, we can note that the Bank Nifty chart featured yesterday had cautioned that the supports are vital and the hold is critical. However, the lacklustre behaviour seen on the charts demonstrates that the trendline support area around 56800 is crucial. This is an important zone to watch out for, combined with the recent lows that have been formed in that region. Also, the positive DI lines that were giving us some hope seem to be giving way. With a long body red candles, we may now have witnessed a bearish engulfing clearly hinting at some shorting possibility. Further, the way the trends have progressed its clear that the lack of participation seen now is hinting at a negative day today. With the scenario getting set for some decline, one should look to be careful with their positions. There are still some stock specific action that is keeping the participants active as the result season is underway. With the inability to move above way above 57500 on an EOD basis we need to revisit the bullish bias. Momentums on hourly charts are indicating that the prices after settling down are now hinting at the onset of some more decline. As eager bullish participants begin to resign, we need to now start adopting some selling candidates into our trading basket. The readings from the Option Data suggest that PCR has moved to 0.78, highlighting that the trends continue to face some pressure at higher levels, with some steady Call writing at 57000 levels continues to prove to be a hurdle for recovery levels fighting the buying interest at every rise. Trends remain challenged and we are trading in a difficult situation. Raja Venkatraman is the co-founder of NeoTrader. His Sebi-registered research analyst registration no. is INH000016223. Investments in securities are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing. Registration granted by Sebi and certification from NISM in no way guarantees performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors. Disclaimer: The views and recommendations given in this article are those of individual analysts. These do not represent the views of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
Mint
a few seconds ago
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Top three stocks to buy today—recommended by Ankush Bajaj for 18 July
Indian stock market benchmarks—the Sensex and the Nifty 50—closed lower on Thursday, 17 July, amid profit booking in select heavyweights including Infosys, HDFC Bank, and Reliance Industries. The Sensex declined 375 points, or 0.45%, to settle at 82,259.24, while the Nifty 50 fell 101 points, or 0.40%, ending the day at 25,111.45. However, mid- and small-cap stocks outperformed. The BSE Midcap index edged up 0.07%, and the BSE Smallcap index gained 0.30%. Top 3 stocks recommended by Ankush Bajaj for 18 July: Why it's recommended: After recent selling pressure, Tata Steel has shown a strong pullback and broken above the upper trendline of a falling wedge pattern—a bullish reversal signal. The breakout signifies trend reversal and momentum pick-up, aiming for a short-term move towards ₹170+. Key metrics: Breakout zone: Upper trendline breakout of falling wedge pattern, signalling trend reversal. Pattern: Falling wedge breakout with bullish follow-through. RSI: Recovering from oversold zone, confirming momentum shift. Technical analysis: The structure suggests that the bottom may be in place, with higher highs and higher lows starting to form. Momentum is favouring the bulls for a target zone of ₹170 and potentially higher. Risk factors: A move below ₹155 would invalidate the wedge breakout and may lead to renewed weakness. Use a strict stop-loss to manage risk. Buy at: ₹159.90 Target price: ₹170.00+ Stop loss: ₹155.00 Why it's recommended: Prestige Estates Projects Ltd is exhibiting a strong bullish setup backed by a rectangle pattern breakout on the 45-minute chart at ₹1,770. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily timeframe is at 70, indicating solid momentum yet still positioned for further upside. This multi-timeframe confluence of breakout signals suggests strength in trend continuation. Key metrics: Breakout zone: Rectangle breakout on 45-minute timeframe at ₹1,770 with high volume support. Pattern: Rectangular range breakout confirming bullish continuation. RSI: Bullish, currently at 70 on daily timeframe, suggesting strong trend with momentum. Technical analysis: The stock's structure shows sustained bullishness, with the breakout level likely to serve as a strong support. If broader sentiment remains positive, the price is expected to test ₹1,815– ₹1,830 in the short term. Risk factors: A close below ₹1,757 would negate the breakout signal and could lead to a short-term correction. Traders should trail with a tight stop-loss. Buy at: ₹1,783.00 Target price: ₹1,815– ₹1,830 Stop loss: ₹1,757.00 Why it's recommended: On the daily chart, Jindal Steel & Power has broken out of a triangle pattern, hinting at a bullish continuation with a medium-term target of ₹1,100+. Additionally, the 15-minute timeframe shows a rectangle breakout near ₹950, aligning short- and medium-term momentum toward ₹980+. Key metrics: Breakout zone: Triangle breakout on daily; rectangle breakout near ₹950 on intraday chart. Pattern: Multi-timeframe confluence of bullish breakout structures. RSI: Holding strong, supporting trend continuation. Technical analysis: With clear breakout levels and alignment across timeframes, the setup points toward a steady climb toward ₹970– ₹980, with further upside if momentum persists. Risk factors: A fall below ₹939 would negate the breakout structure, and short-term weakness could set in. Maintain a disciplined stop-loss. Buy at: ₹950.45 Target price: ₹970– ₹980 Stop loss: ₹939.00 Stock market wrap - 17 July Indian equity markets ended in the red on Thursday, 17 July, as sustained selling pressure across key sectors weighed on sentiment. Despite brief recovery attempts—particularly in select defensives—broader momentum remained weak, dragging major indices lower. The Nifty 50 declined 100.60 points, or 0.40%, to close at 25,111.45, while the BSE Sensex fell 375.24 points, or 0.45%, to 82,259.24. The Bank Nifty also ended lower, down 340.15 points or 0.59%, at 56,828.80, as late buying failed to fully reverse earlier losses in financial stocks. The sectoral picture was mixed, but the tone remained largely cautious. PSU Banks fell 0.79%, Services declined 0.67%, and the broader Banking index slipped 0.59%, reflecting profit booking and risk-off sentiment in high-beta pockets. On the flip side, a few sectors offered support. Realty outperformed with a gain of 1.24%, while Metals and Pharma rose 0.67% and 0.38%, respectively, helping limit the downside. In stock-specific action, Tata Consumer led the gainers with a 2.25% rise. Tata Steel and Hindalco climbed 1.63% and 1.17%, respectively, supported by continued institutional flows and positive cues in the metals space. Meanwhile, the broader undertone remained bearish. Tech Mahindra shed 2.75%, IndusInd Bank lost 1.67%, and SBI Life Insurance fell 1.44%, reflecting caution in recent outperformers. The Nifty 50 ended Thursday's session on a weak footing, closing at 25,111.45, down 100.60 points or 0.40%. The index slipped below the key psychological level of 25,200, indicating a deterioration in short-term sentiment. Technically, the Nifty is now trading below its 20-day simple moving average (SMA) at 25,325, while hovering just above the 40-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 25,042. This setup suggests the upside is likely capped unless the index decisively reclaims the 20-DMA. Until that happens, the broader trend remains fragile and skewed to the downside. On the hourly chart, the index has slipped below both its 20-hour SMA at 25,210 and 40-hour EMA at 25,182, confirming short-term weakness. More importantly, Nifty has broken below the lower boundary of a rising wedge pattern, which is a bearish development. This breakdown projects a near-term downside target of around 24,950, especially if the index fails to hold above the immediate support at 25,000. Momentum indicators reflect growing weakness. The daily RSI has dropped to 47.5, moving into neutral-bearish territory, while the hourly RSI has declined further to 38, indicating strong intraday selling pressure. The daily MACD remains positive at 66, suggesting that the medium-term structure hasn't turned fully negative yet, but the hourly MACD at –21 confirms a clear short-term loss of momentum. Options data also paints a bearish picture. Total Call open interest stands at 7.28 crore compared to Put open interest at 5.08 crore, with a net difference of –2.21 crore, indicating a dominant call writing bias. The highest Call OI and maximum additions are at the 26,000 strike, implying strong resistance overhead. On the Put side, the highest additions were at the 24,900 strike, highlighting that support is now shifting lower. The intraday change in OI also shows a net bearish bias, with Call OI rising by 3.32 crore and Put OI by only 1.81 crore, resulting in a negative OI change difference of –1.51 crore. This reinforces the view that traders are preparing for further downside. In summary, the Nifty's short-term trend has weakened following a breakdown below critical support levels and key moving averages. Unless the index manages to reclaim 25,325 and eventually close above 25,700, the market structure remains vulnerable. A decisive break below 25,000 could accelerate the selling pressure toward 24,950 or even 24,800. Traders should stay cautious, avoid aggressive long positions, and monitor price action closely around the 25,000 mark, which has now become the immediate make-or-break level for the index.
