Once a beacon of hope, Tunisia's civil society struggles to survive
22/07/2025
DRC and M23 rebels sign ceasefire deal in Doha
22/07/2025
Brazil's Bolsonaro risks arrest over breach of court restrictions in coup case
22/07/2025
Two Israelis questioned in Brussels over alleged Gaza war crimes
22/07/2025
Famine looms in Gaza amid mounting warnings
22/07/2025
Donald Trump releases Martin Luther King files
22/07/2025
Bangladesh plane crash kills at least 27, including 25 children
Asia / Pacific
22/07/2025
Harvard fights Trump administration in court over $2.6 billion funding cut
22/07/2025
France, UK and 23 other countries issue joint plea for war in Gaza to 'end now'
21/07/2025
France's Minister in Ukraine for high-level talks amid strikes
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France 24
43 minutes ago
- France 24
IMF lifts 2025 growth forecast on 'fragile' easing in trade tensions
The International Monetary Fund still sees growth slowing this year, however, even as it lifted its 2025 projection to 3.0 percent -- up from 2.8 percent in April -- in its World Economic Outlook update. In 2024, global growth came in at 3.3 percent. Looking ahead, the IMF expects the world economy to expand 3.1 percent next year, an improvement from the 3.0 percent it earlier predicted. Despite the upward revisions, "there are reasons to be very cautious," IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told AFP. "Businesses were trying to frontload, move stuff around, before the tariffs were imposed, and so that's supporting economic activity," he said. "There is going to be payback for that. If you stock the shelves now, you don't need to stock them later in the year or into the next year," he added. This means a likelihood of reduced trade activity in the second half of the year and into 2026. "The global economy has continued to hold steady, but the composition of activity points to distortions from tariffs, rather than underlying robustness," the IMF's report said. For now, a "modest decline in trade tensions, however fragile, has contributed to the resilience of the global economy," Gourinchas told reporters Tuesday. Trump imposed a 10 percent levy on almost all trading partners this year, alongside steeper duties on autos, steel and aluminum. He paused higher tariffs on dozens of economies until August 1, a significant delay from April when they were first unveiled. Washington and Beijing also agreed to lower for 90 days triple-digit duties on each other's goods, in a halt expiring August 12. Talks that could lead to a further extension of the truce are ongoing. Trump's actions have brought the US effective tariff rate to 17.3 percent, significantly above the 3.5 percent level for the rest of the world, the IMF said. If deals unravel or tariffs rebound to higher levels, global output would be 0.3 percent down next year, Gourinchas said. US inflation hit US growth for 2025 was revised 0.1 percentage points up, to 1.9 percent, with tariffs anticipated to settle at lower levels than initially announced in April. The country is also set to see a near-term boost from Trump's flagship tax and spending bill. Euro area growth was adjusted 0.2 percentage points higher to 1.0 percent, partly reflecting a jump in Irish pharmaceutical exports to the United States to avoid fresh duties. Among European economies, Germany is still expected to avoid contraction while forecasts for France and Spain remained unchanged at 0.6 percent and 2.5 percent respectively. While the IMF anticipates global inflation to keep declining, with headline inflation cooling to 4.2 percent this year, it warned that US price increases will remain above target. "The tariffs, acting as a supply shock, are expected to pass through to US consumer prices gradually and hit inflation in the second half of 2025," the IMF report said. Elsewhere, Trump's duties "constitute a negative demand shock, lowering inflationary pressures," the report added. China challenges Growth in the world's number-two economy China, however, was revised 0.8 percentage points upwards to 4.8 percent. This reflects stronger-than-expected activity in the first half of 2025, alongside "the significant reduction in US–China tariffs," the IMF said. Gourinchas warned that China is still experiencing headwinds, with "fairly weak" domestic demand. "There is relatively little consumer confidence, the property sector is still a black spot in the Chinese economy, it's not been completely addressed," he added. "That is resulting in a drag on economic activity going forward." Russia's growth was revised 0.6 percentage points down, to 0.9 percent, partially due to Russian policies but also oil prices, which are set to remain relatively subdued compared with 2024 levels, Gourinchas said.
France 24
43 minutes ago
- France 24
Colombia ex-president Uribe guilty in bribery trial
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France 24
43 minutes ago
- France 24
Fossil-fuel pledge in EU-Trump deal sparks climate fears
As part of the framework agreed Sunday, the EU said its companies would buy $750 billion of liquefied natural gas, oil and nuclear fuels from the United States -- split equally over three years -- to replace Russian energy sources. Many experts believe the eye-watering figure to be unrealistic -- and point out that market dynamics rather than EU policymakers dictate companies' energy choices. Even on the supply side, Simone Tagliapietra of the Bruegel think-tank noted that the United States might not be able to build the additional export capacity within such a short time frame. Brussels insists the number was not plucked out of thin air to keep Trump happy, but was based on an analysis of energy needs as it phases out Russian imports because of the Ukraine war between now and 2027. The proposed increase would mean more than tripling annual energy imports from the United States -- about $70 billion last year -- and equate to well over half the 378 billion euros' worth of overall EU energy imports last year. 'Submission' A large part of the EU's additional billions would go to imports of LNG, which is transported in liquid state to European ports before being converted back to gaseous form and injected into the bloc's power network. The United States currently account for about half of the EU's LNG imports, ahead of Russia on 20 percent -- a figure Brussels wants to cut to zero to choke off income that helps fund the war in Ukraine. But environmental groups warn against a massive switch to American LNG extracted in part though hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, which uses explosives to create cracks in rock formations to release oil and gas deposits. The highly polluting process comes with steep costs to both the climate and local environment, and is banned in a number of European countries. "The Commission risks replacing one disastrous dependency with another -- unplugging Putin's gas and plugging in Trump's," Greenpeace warned when the EU's phase-out plans were presented. Francois Gemenne, a policy expert who co-authored the UN's most recent IPCC report on climate change, in 2023, accused the EU of "submission" to Trump's pro-fossil fuel agenda. Elected on a promise to "drill, baby drill," the US leader is openly hostile to renewable energy efforts and lashed out again at windmills "ruining" the landscape before meeting with EU chief Ursula von der Leyen in Scotland last weekend. For Aymeric Kouam of the Strategic Perspectives think-tank, the energy deal with Trump is both "dangerous and counterproductive" and imperils its goal to become carbon neutral by 2050. "Tying Europe's energy future to the US as a main supplier undermines the bloc's energy security strategy, anchored in supply diversification, renewable energy development, and energy efficiency increase," he said. The EU pushed back at the charge on Tuesday. "This agreement does not contradict our medium- to long-term decarbonisation objectives or targets at all," a commission spokesperson told reporters of the three-year energy pledge. The Trump trade deal comes as the EU debates its 2040 emissions-reduction target, a key step towards its net zero goal. The commission has proposed a target of cutting emissions by 90 percent compared to 1990 levels, but with new flexibilities to win over reluctant member states. The EU says it has already cut climate-warming emissions by 37 percent relative to 1990, but its green agenda faces pushback with a rightward shift and rising climate scepticism in many European countries.
