Farmers' Almanac winter 2025–2026 forecast predicts 'wild weather' across the US, but accuracy is in question
Accuracy of Farmers' Almanac forecasts remains debated
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The Farmers' Almanac's latest extended forecast projects 'a wild weather ride across the nation' for winter 2025–2026. The outlook calls for 'consistent cold snaps' from the Pacific Northwest to New England and periodic snowstorms across the Pacific Northwest, the Great Lakes, the Northeast, and the Mid-Atlantic.The forecast also predicts wetter-than-average conditions across the southern half of the United States, with cold or freezing precipitation possible in Texas. The publication's press release summarized the season in three words: 'Chill, Snow, Repeat.'Also read: Old Farmer's Almanac Fall 2025 predictions are here for US Other projected events include frigid blasts 'from the Northern Plains to northern New England' in January and February, and potential snowstorms in North Carolina and Tennessee into late February or early March, according to editor Sandi Duncan. Snow is also forecast for northern Texas in December and February.'We don't think the cold and snow that some southern areas saw last year will repeat, but we do see some wild swings in the temperatures that will keep our winter [on] the 'Snow, Chill, Repeat' loop and may surprise some folks with wet snow that shows up instead of rain,' Duncan said.Founded in 1818, the Farmers' Almanac uses a proprietary formula involving celestial observations and historical weather patterns. However, research has questioned its reliability. A study by John E. Walsh and David Allen, published in the 1981 edition of Weatherwise, found that the Farmers' Almanac and the Old Farmer's Almanac were correct on temperature forecasts 50.7 per cent of the time and precipitation forecasts 51.9 per cent of the time.'It's more like a crapshoot of trusting something that far into the future since there are times the forecast is blown in the first 24 hours,' said Rich Segal, meteorologist at Nexstar's KXAN.Jon Gottschalck, chief of the Operational Prediction Branch at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, told Nexstar that predicting specific weather events months ahead is not possible. The NOAA instead offers seasonal outlooks showing probabilities for above or below-average temperatures and precipitation, without detailing exact events.The Farmers' Almanac highlighted accurate elements of its 2024–2025 winter forecast but cited 'La Niña' for missing a predicted late-January cold spell and overestimating precipitation.Also read: Weather Update: Thunderstorm alert in Chicago, storms and rainfall likely in Houston; check the full forec 'While no forecast can claim perfect accuracy, our predictions have proven useful for generations of planners and outdoor enthusiasts,' Duncan said. 'We continuously refine our method but acknowledge that Mother Nature always has the final say.'
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Synopsis The Farmers' Almanac projects a 'wild weather ride' for the 2025–2026 US winter, with cold snaps, snowstorms, and wetter conditions in the South. While the publication has a long history, studies show its forecasts are only about 50 per cent accurate, raising questions about its reliability for long-term weather predictions TIL Creatives The Farmers' Almanac's 2025–2026 winter forecast predicts widespread cold snaps, snowstorms, and wetter conditions in the South, though studies show the publication's long-range weather predictions are only about 50 per cent accurate (AI generated image) The Farmers' Almanac's latest extended forecast projects 'a wild weather ride across the nation' for winter 2025–2026. The outlook calls for 'consistent cold snaps' from the Pacific Northwest to New England and periodic snowstorms across the Pacific Northwest, the Great Lakes, the Northeast, and the forecast also predicts wetter-than-average conditions across the southern half of the United States, with cold or freezing precipitation possible in Texas. The publication's press release summarized the season in three words: 'Chill, Snow, Repeat.' Also read: Old Farmer's Almanac Fall 2025 predictions are here for USOther projected events include frigid blasts 'from the Northern Plains to northern New England' in January and February, and potential snowstorms in North Carolina and Tennessee into late February or early March, according to editor Sandi Duncan. Snow is also forecast for northern Texas in December and February.'We don't think the cold and snow that some southern areas saw last year will repeat, but we do see some wild swings in the temperatures that will keep our winter [on] the 'Snow, Chill, Repeat' loop and may surprise some folks with wet snow that shows up instead of rain,' Duncan said. Founded in 1818, the Farmers' Almanac uses a proprietary formula involving celestial observations and historical weather patterns. However, research has questioned its reliability. A study by John E. Walsh and David Allen, published in the 1981 edition of Weatherwise , found that the Farmers' Almanac and the Old Farmer's Almanac were correct on temperature forecasts 50.7 per cent of the time and precipitation forecasts 51.9 per cent of the time. 'It's more like a crapshoot of trusting something that far into the future since there are times the forecast is blown in the first 24 hours,' said Rich Segal, meteorologist at Nexstar's Gottschalck, chief of the Operational Prediction Branch at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, told Nexstar that predicting specific weather events months ahead is not possible. The NOAA instead offers seasonal outlooks showing probabilities for above or below-average temperatures and precipitation, without detailing exact Farmers' Almanac highlighted accurate elements of its 2024–2025 winter forecast but cited 'La Niña' for missing a predicted late-January cold spell and overestimating precipitation. Also read: Weather Update: Thunderstorm alert in Chicago, storms and rainfall likely in Houston; check the full forec'While no forecast can claim perfect accuracy, our predictions have proven useful for generations of planners and outdoor enthusiasts,' Duncan said. 'We continuously refine our method but acknowledge that Mother Nature always has the final say.'
