Stock Movers: Oil, RTX, Adobe
On this episode of Stock Movers: - Exxon (XOM) shares are higher this morning as Israel strikes Iran. Oil prices surged double digits after Israel carried out strikes against Iran, raising fears of a wider war in the region. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil chokepoint, is a key concern, with the potential for Tehran to retaliate and block the strait, and OPEC+ spare capacity potentially being challenged in such a scenario. - RTX Corp. (RTX) is higher this morning along with other defense stocks on the S&P as geopolitical tensions rise over Israel's strikes on Iran. It launched airstrikes against Iran's nuclear program and ballistic-missile sites renewed a standoff between two adversaries that risks spiraling into a wider conflict. While the reaction was strongest in crude oil, other pockets of the market suggested that investors are watching how long the tensions will last and whether the situation escalates. - Newmont Corp. (NEM) shares are higher this morning as gold's risk premium is lifted by Israel's attack on Iran. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, Israel's attack on Iran could trigger a further jump in gold's risk premium above fair value of $100-$150 an ounce, pushing the metal beyond $3,600. Gold is expensive vs. almost every other financial yardstick and appears overvalued by $200-$700 an ounce vs. our three regression models, yet it's likely to remain a lead indicator. - Adobe (ADBE) shares are down in premarket trading on Friday, after the maker of software for creative-arts professionals reported second-quarter results that beat expectations. While it also raised its full-year forecast for some metrics, it affirmed its full-year growth forecast for annualized recurring revenue for its digital media business. Analysts said the results won't quiet concerns over Adobe's AI business or the impact of competition from other AI services.
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Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
Crypto legislation just had a 'gigantic' week. Here's why.
Bitcoin (BTC=F) is holding above $100K despite market jitters tied to tensions in the Middle East. Axios crypto reporter Brady Dale joins Morning Brief host Brad Smith to break down the pivotal week in crypto legislation and what congressional stablecoin action could mean for bitcoin. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Morning Brief here. Bitcoin is still holding above the $100,000 level but losing some ground as stocks slump amid increasing Mideast tension. We're taking a look at crypto-related stocks as well, including Coinbase, also largely lower along with the broader market. So does this spell the end of the Rico rally for right now, or could impending legislation. And a crypto friendly administration proved to be a boost. I wanna bring in Brady Dale, Axio's crypto reporter here. Brady, good to have you back on the program with us. Just take us into your evaluation of what the mindset around riskier portions of the investment thesis, riskier assets like crypto, especially within the broader playing out of the Middle East tensions right now, how that is typical and what we should expect this time around. Yeah, I mean, I think probably what investors are looking at is does this war get a lot worse? And so I think that's why some people backed out. Now, keep in mind, the amount that, uh, Bitcoin is down right now is roughly 2% and, in the crypto markets, that could have just been like a very lackluster Tuesday. You know, I mean, the markets can easily move that much on nothing at all. So really this is kind of a smaller shift down than I would have. Expected for something that could end up being so much bigger than it has become so far. Yeah, certainly. It's also been a big week we know for cryptocurrency. You've got everyone from the president even opining in and weighing in. I saw our own Brian Sazi, executive editor, post a video where even at the most recent conference that was taking place here in New York, there is still within the conversation this willingness or want and desire. To make sure that the administration is positioning itself as continuously crypto friendly, how's that playing out? I mean this was a gigantic week in crypto legislation, um, you know, more in the Congress side, um, genius, the Genius Bill, which is about stablecoins, uh, got a cloture vote for a second time in the Senate, teamed up for a very likely final passage vote sometime I think we're looking at Tuesday right now, uh, and so that's been a big fight in the Senate and then over in the House, uh, two different committees, uh, the Ad committee and the House Financial Services Committee. Voted the Clarity Act to the floor, and that's an act that would just sort of decide how disclosures and regulations would work for cryptocurrency. And then on top of that, the final big regulator got a hearing in the in the Senate, Brian Quintends the CFTC. So it was a gigantic week in crypto legislation. If the stablecoin legislation is able to move forward, what what does that mean for, of course, the poster child of crypto in in Bitcoin? Uh, yeah, that is the big interesting question. You know, historically, thus far, when, uh, there has been more activity of really any kind in the cryptocurrency market, like, you know, your viewers might remember the ICO craze of 2017, which was really all about Ethereum, that drove a ton of, uh, value to Bitcoin regardless. So that's what we'd expect. But you know, it could be that these things are starting to decouple. You know, stablecoins are a financial utility. People can use them for a lot of reasons that have nothing to do with Bitcoin, so it could be that stablecoins explode and we see a modest bump to Bitcoin, but no direct gigantic gain. Or it could be that the explosion of stablecoins brings a lot more energy to Bitcoin. We just, we just don't know right now. I mean, we're entering into a very new world. Yeah, I imagine some of the prominent profiles that were promoting ICOs, and then got dinged by the SEC certainly remember that period very well. Barry, thanks so much for taking the time. Thank you.
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
Israel-Iran clash delivers a fresh shock to investors. History suggests this is the move to make.
Markets are having another bout of nerves after Israel bombed Iran, which is believed to have fired back drones in response. But already there are signs that investors' geopolitical angst may have peaked. S&P 500 futures ES00 are off session lows and oil prices CL.1 have nearly cut in half their earlier spike. My husband is in hospice care. Friends say his children are lining up for his money. What can I do? These defense stocks offer the best growth prospects, as the Israel-Iran conflict fuels new interest in the sector 'He failed in his fiduciary duty': My brother liquidated our mother's 401(k) for her nursing home. He claimed the rest. Why bonds aren't acting like a safe haven for investors amid the Israel-Iran conflict Walmart's stock looks like it's in trouble. What the chart says may come next. For those investors fortunate enough not to be directly impacted by the conflict the reaction is, given past events, understandable. 'Financial markets are always incredibly quick to price in geopolitical fear, but tend to be equally quick to discount it again, seeing the risk premium fade in short order,' says Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone. A report by the International Monetary Fund, released in April, shows that mostly to be true, though countries and sectors obviously can react differently depending on their proximity and/or sensitivity to the conflict. 'Stock prices have generally had a modest reaction to geopolitical risk events, but major events — especially military conflicts — have a disproportionally larger and more persistent effect on asset prices,' say the IMF researchers Salih Fendoglu, Mahvash S. Qureshi, and Felix Suntheim. They looked at the frequency of news stories as a guide to the heft of geopolitical events and found that the average monthly drop for stocks is about 1 percentage point across countries, though it's a fall of 2.5% for emerging markets. 'Of the different types of major geopolitical risk events, international military conflicts hit emerging market stocks the hardest, likely because of more severe economic disruptions compared with other events. In these cases, the average monthly drop in stock returns is a significant 5 percentage points, twice as much as for all other types of events,' says the IMF team. The good news is that average stock market returns after major global geopolitical risks usually turn positive after just a month. But that can depend on the conflict's characteristics and it's varying impacts on asset classes, sectors and countries. 'For example, supply-chain disruptions may increase commodity prices but decrease stock prices if the disruptions are expected to have an adverse effect on economic activity. Differences may also arise across sectors: for example, the energy sector may benefit if supply-chain disruptions raise oil prices, whereas energy-dependent sectors are likely to suffer in such a case,' says the IMF. Concerns about crimped oil supply linked to a conflict, as is the case was Friday, can produce more prolonged negative market reactions. Iraq's invasion of Kuwait saw the S&P 500 SPX post real negative returns for six months, for example, while the 1973 oil embargo saw the S&P 500 deliver negative real returns of more than 60% after several months. Deutsche Bank, in a note published last year, provided a more detailed table of S&P 500 reactions to major geopolitical events. It seems to suggest that the stock market has of late become better able to absorb such tensions. 'Geopolitical events have often created short, sharp market shocks, but with little lasting impact beyond weeks,' says the Deutsche team led by strategist Jim Reid. After the initial anxiety dies down the macroeconomic drivers take back control. 'So on this basis you should generally buy into geopolitical risk,' says Deutsche. But they add: 'The question is whether we're entering a new phase given that tensions are rising, or whether geopolitical risk continues to create more fear than reality.' U.S. stock-indices SPX DJIA COMP are all lower at the opening bell as benchmark Treasury yields BX:TMUBMUSD10Y rise. The dollar index DXY is higher, while oil prices CL.1 jump and gold GC00 is trading around $3,443 an ounce. Key asset performance Last 5d 1m YTD 1y S&P 500 6045.26 1.78% 2.17% 2.78% 11.25% Nasdaq Composite 19,662.48 1.89% 2.88% 1.82% 11.29% 10-year Treasury 4.348 -16.40 -13.60 -22.80 12.00 Gold 3444.1 3.40% 7.45% 30.49% 46.66% Oil 72.53 11.98% 17.12% 0.92% -7.10% Data: MarketWatch. Treasury yields change expressed in basis points Need to Know starts early and is updated until the opening bell, but to get it delivered once to your email box. The emailed version will be sent out at about 7:30 a.m. Eastern. U.S. economic data due Friday include the preliminary reading of June consumer sentiment, due for release at 10:00 a.m. Eastern. U.S. President Donald Trump said he still thinks a deal can be reached with Iran over its nuclear program. Adobe shares ADBE are lower despite the digital media group beating earnings estimates and raising its guidance. Shares of RH RH, formerly Restoration Hardware, are surging nearly 20% after the retailer reported a surprise adjusted profit during the first quarter and kept its full-year outlook. China has delayed the approval of a $35 billion merger in the semiconductor sector between Synopsys SNPS and Ansys ANSS, according to the Financial Times. Meta Platforms META is reported to have made a $14.3 billion investment in Scale AI. Here come the glassholes, part II. Walmart and Amazon are exploring their own stablecoins. China forced to keep unprofitable firms alive to save jobs and avoid unrest. Nominally, households are more exposed to equities than at any point historically, with data extending back to 1945, according to Troy Ludka, senior U.S. economist at SMBC Nikko Securities. Even after adjusting for rising stock market price to earnings multiples, households' current equity allocation is topped by just one other period — the IT bubble that peaked in 2000. Ludka says this is important for two reasons: 'First, households tend to promote volatility by investing at peaks and selling at lows. Secondly, if households have little additional capacity to expand their equity allocation, sustaining market prices will require marginal buyers to emerge from elsewhere.' With consumption linked to stock market performance it means policymakers will need to support markets to ensure an economic downturn does not worsen. Here were the most active stock-market tickers on MarketWatch as of 6 a.m. Eastern. Ticker Security name TSLA Tesla NVDA Nvidia GME GameStop PLTR Palantir Technologies BA Boeing AAPL Apple AMD Advanced Micro Devices AMZN TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing XOM Exxon Mobil New legislation would legalize NYC bodega cats. China's financial regulator in hawkish doll tightening. New Jersey high school prank: 'Went too far'. For more market updates plus actionable trade ideas for stocks, options and crypto, . I'm in my 80s and have 2 kids. How do I choose between them to be my executor? My mother-in-law thought the world's richest man needed Apple gift cards. How on Earth could she fall for this scam? 'I am getting very frustrated': My mother's adviser has not returned my calls. He manages $1 million. Is this normal? Israel's attack on Iran shattered stocks' early-summer calm. Here's what investors should watch out for next. Gundlach says gold is no longer for lunatics as the bond king says wait to buy the 30-year
Yahoo
2 hours ago
- Yahoo
The Weekend: Iran-Israel conflict sends oil price soaring as markets reel
It's been a week of big international headlines, mostly bad. On Friday the world woke up to news that Israel had launched a co-ordinated assault on Iranian nuclear sites and military facilities, killing two of the country's most senior commanders in the process. The attacks – the first of many to come according to Israel's prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu – sparked an immediate retaliation from Iran. Oil prices shot up as traders pondered the possibility of Iran disrupting the flow of crude through the Strait of Hormuz or striking its Gulf neighbours' oilfields as it has done in the past. Unsurprisingly, gold prices benefited too, while stock markets didn't fare so well. A day earlier, a London-bound aeroplane came down barely a minute after take-off in Ahmedabad, India, killing all but one of the 242 passengers on board. The tragedy is a major setback for Boeing (BA), maker of the 787 Dreamliner involved, whose shares had been on a tear this year as its new boss tried to turn things around after a string of safety-related incidents. The plane maker's stock price took an immediate hit, falling almost 5%. Closer to home, finance minister Rachel Reeves delivered her eagerly awaited spending review, promising to put Britain on the path to "national renewal". Healthcare and defence were at the heart of the plan, with the NHS getting a £29 billion annual boost and the defence budget set to rise to 2.6% of GDP from the current 2.3%. There was an ambitious commitment of £39 billion to social housing, a £14.2bn investment pledged to the Sizewell C nuclear plant and a host of transport and infrastructure projects in cities outside London. But the optimistic tone of the announcements was undermined somewhat the very next day when official figures revealed the UK economy had shrunk by 3% in April, far more than the contraction expected by analysts. Reeves admitted it was a blow, as the government banks on spurring economic growth to fund its bold spending plans. Let's take a closer look at these and other stories from an eventful few days. Boeing stock slumps after deadly Air India plane crash It was reportedly the first deadly crash involving a Boeing 787 Dreamliner since its launch 14 years ago. Boeing's shares had gained more than 20% this year on the heels of a massive company turnaround following a brutal 2024 sparked by a "door plug" incident on an Alaska Airlines (ALK) flight. Five years prior to that the plane maker had suffered a serious crisis when two fatal crashes exposed critical flaws in the 737 Max 8 jet's software, leading to a 20-month global grounding of the aircraft. UK economy shrinks by 0.3% in April The shock reading for April came a day after chancellor Rachel Reeves unveiled a raft of pledges in the government spending review. The biggest contributor to the fall in GDP was a 0.4% drop in services output, while production output slumped 0.6%. The contraction came as an increase in employer national insurance contributions and the national minimum wage, which were announced in the autumn budget, came into place in early April. Professor Joe Nellis, economic adviser to accountancy and advisory firm MHA, said: "This is not an ideal scenario for the chancellor. The sustainability of her spending promises is critically dependent on changing this — kickstarting the economy to grow GDP and collect more revenue through tax receipts. "Without this, the chancellor may be forced into unwanted – and unpopular – tax increases in the autumn budget to keep public finances on track." Oil prices surge as Israel strikes Iran Iran has threatened to hit US assets in the region as part of its retaliation, even as secretary of state Marco Rubio warned against such a move. Rubio claims Israel took "unilateral action" and the US was not involved in Friday morning's strikes. Iran is the third-largest oil producer within the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), trailing only Saudi Arabia and Iraq, with output exceeding 3 million barrels per day. 'We can probably expect a temporary slowdown in oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz,' Ed Hirs, senior fellow at the University of Houston, said in an interview with Yahoo Finance. Tehran has repeatedly threatened to block the strait, a vital chokepoint through which as many as 20 million barrels of oil pass each day. Gold hits nearly two-month high as Israel attack spurs demand Gold prices shot up as the massive escalation of Middle East conflict spurred demand for traditional safe-haven assets. "Gold surged past resistance around $3,400 on news of the airstrikes, and further upside could be in-store should the escalation continue," said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade. The rally has been further underpinned by growing expectations of monetary policy easing in the US. Recent data showing elevated jobless claims and muted producer price inflation have increased speculation that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates, making non-yielding assets such as gold more attractive to investors. The UK's rental boom is over Rental price growth has slowed significantly, according to the latest figures from Zoopla, with the average rents for new lets agreed 2.8% higher in April than the same time a year ago. That's less than half of the average rental growth in April 2024, which stood at 6.4%, and the lowest growth in nearly four years. The slowdown is a result of weaker rental demand and growing affordability pressures, rather than an increase in supply, Zoopla said. The chancellor is determined that Wednesday's spending review won't come with a tax sting in the tail. Unfortunately, that pledge is resting on some very fine margins. If the government achieves the growth it wants and a potential funding gap emerges, taxes are likely to be in the frame. Columnist Sarah Coles, a personal finance analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, examined the possibilities: Why Rachel Reeves' spending review may lead to tax rises Recent industry studies put the cost of a "moderate" retirement at £31,700 per year and a "comfortable" retirement at an eye-popping £43,900 per year. But before you throw your hands up in despair, take time to think about what you want or need from your post-career years – is it lots of travelling or something more sedate? You may find that what you need differs massively from these figures: How far will your pension go as retirement costs soar? Find more personal finance gems here UK inflation and interest rates will be the main focus in terms of economic data. Markets will be watching Wednesday's UK inflation reading for any signs of a cool off after April's jump to 3.5%, later revised to 3.4% due to an error in car tax data. The higher-than-expected figure was driven mainly by large increases in household bills. With that in mind, the Bank of England is expected to keep interest rates on hold at 4.25% on Thursday as it tries to keep price increases in check. The US Federal Reserve is due to announce its next interest rate decision next week too. The Fed is expected to keep rates on hold once again at its meeting on Wednesday, maintaining the 4.25%-4.50% range. On the company earnings front, investors will be keeping an eye on the latest results from US-listed consultancy firm Accenture (ACN), given the company narrowed its revenue growth guidance for the year and warned of the impact of federal spending cuts in its previous quarterly update. On the London market, Berkeley (BKG.L) is due to report, with focus expected to be on whether the housebuilder has any updates cash return plans. Premier Inn-owner Whitbread is another FTSE 100 (^FTSE) company due to update on its performance, following a slower start to year for its UK business. The Beach Boys frontman, widely regarded as a genius, left a gaping hole in the rock royalty family this week when he passed away at the age of 82. The troubled songwriter, who formed the band with his brothers, cousin and a friend in 1961, will always be remembered for his ability to craft sublime melodies, his innate gift for soaring harmonies and his relentless drive for studio perfection. The Beach Boys' 1966 Pet Sounds is frequently cited as one of the greatest albums ever made. Here's one of the best songs ever made, from that very album. Farewell Brian! Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
