US House prepares final vote on Donald Trump's tax and spending bill; Jeffries warns of Medicaid cuts
Republican leaders and Trump himself worked through the night, personally calling skeptical lawmakers to break the internal deadlock.
House Speaker Mike Johnson expressed confidence after marathon talks: 'There couldn't be a more engaged and involved president,' Johnson said. 'We had a long, productive day discussing the issues.'
In a 219-213 vote around 3:30 a.m. ET, the House cleared the final procedural step needed to begin debate. The chamber, controlled 220-212 by Republicans, can afford no more than three defections.
House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries seized the floor in an hours-long address. Using the so-called 'magic minute,' which allows leaders unlimited speaking time, he condemned the legislation in blistering terms: 'This one big, ugly bill—this reckless Republican budget—this disgusting abomination is not about improving the quality of life of the American people,' Jeffries declared.
He accused Republicans of gutting health care and social programs to enrich the wealthiest Americans: 'The focus of this bill…is to provide massive tax breaks for billionaires.'
Jeffries began shortly before 5 a.m. ET, reading letters from Americans fearful of losing Medicaid and recounting historical struggles over economic inequality: 'I'm going to take my time,' he said, as colleagues listened in the chamber.
'This is a giveaway to billionaires and a gut punch to working families,' Jeffries said as he continued his speech.
Once Jeffries yields the floor, Republicans are expected to proceed quickly to a final vote—capping weeks of turmoil and marking a defining test of unity for the GOP majority.
At nearly 887 pages, the bill not only extends Trump's 2017 tax cuts but rolls back policies from the last two Democratic administrations. Cuts to Medicaid and food assistance
Elimination of many solar and clean-energy tax credits
New funding for immigration enforcement
A $5 trillion debt ceiling increase to prevent default
The Congressional Budget Office issued a stark review on Sunday, estimating the bill would add $3.3 trillion to the federal debt by 2034—nearly $1 trillion more than previous drafts. 11.8 million Americans would lose health insurance by 2034
The national debt would grow to over $39 trillion within a decade
Earlier this week, the Senate narrowly passed the measure after intense debate over the bill's $900 million cut to Medicaid. If the House makes any changes, the Senate would have to vote again, likely pushing approval past Trump's July 4 deadline.
Despite the hurdles, Republican leaders insist the package is essential to keeping the government solvent and advancing Trump's second-term agenda. Extends Trump's 2017 tax cuts
Cuts Medicaid and food assistance
Ends solar energy tax credits
Boosts funding for immigration enforcement
Raises debt ceiling by $5 trillion
Does not eliminate taxes on Social Security benefits, despite Trump's claims
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Mint
32 minutes ago
- Mint
ETFs are eating the world. The right—and wrong—ways to invest.
A few months ago, you needed big bucks to tap the opaque world of private credit. Not anymore—thanks to the magic of exchange-traded funds. Firms like Apollo Global Management have long dominated the private-credit space, traditionally requiring at least $250,000 or a high net worth to access its funds. But Apollo recently teamed up with State Street to launch the SPDR SSGA IG Public & Private Credit ETF. State Street, which is managing the fund, said it's 'democratizing access to private markets." Since it's an ETF, which trades like a stock, anyone with an account at, say, Robinhood or Fidelity can now buy a sliver of Apollo's $600 billion private-credit portfolio. Apollo is hardly the only firm using ETFs to drum up business. Wall Street has ETF fever. Firms are now packaging just about everything in the funds, including Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, leveraged bets on individual stocks like Nvidia, and even bonds that would pay out sharply if a natural catastrophe strikes. All of it has led to a Cambrian fund explosion. More than 4,000 ETFs are listed on the New York Stock Exchange—compared with just 2,400 individual stocks. Fund companies launched more than 700 ETFs last year, including 33 that track cryptocurrencies, more than 130 'buffered" ETFs, and dozens of ETFs that magnify bets on indexes like the S&P 500 or stocks like Nvidia and Palantir Technologies. Most of the new ETFs are small and nichey, holding less than $100 million in assets each, and dozens of ETFs shut down every year after failing to catch on. But the industry is still raking in assets. ETFs have taken in over $2 trillion of net inflows over the past two years, bringing total assets to nearly $11 trillion. They now hold one out of every three dollars invested in long-term funds, excluding money markets. Some of the money flowing into ETFs has come out of traditional open-end mutual funds, which have lost $1.2 trillion due to outflows in the past two years. While investors are flocking to ETFs for their tax efficiency and other advantages, ETFs are also tackling mutual funds where it really hurts: active management. More than $1 trillion now sits in active ETFs that trade stocks and other securities. Cathie Wood's ARK Innovation ETF is a prominent example. But there are now more than 1,300 active ETFs, including funds from big companies like T. Rowe Price Group, GMO, and JPMorgan Chase. Bond manager Pimco alone has amassed $31 billion in fixed-income ETFs. The deluge shows no signs of letting up. President Donald Trump and congressional Republicans are laying the groundwork to deregulate financial markets, make crypto mainstream—including stablecoins from companies like Circle Internet Group—and open the $12 trillion world of private equity and credit to the broader public. Hundreds of new ETFs are awaiting a go-ahead at the Securities and Exchange Commission, including around 70 new crypto ETFs and plenty of active stock-picking ones. The flood of ETFs raises questions for investors: Should you buy any of the new ones, stick with basic index funds, or use a mix? With so many products, there is a lot to learn, especially about novel funds that employ aggressive strategies or aim to expand the ETF empire to new frontiers. Here's how to get the most out of ETFs—and avoid the pitfalls. Launched in the early 1990s, ETFs were initially designed to track popular stock indexes like the S&P 500. The $600 billion SPDR S&P 500 Trust, launched in 1993, remains one of the largest ETFs, and most of the industry's assets are still concentrated in funds that track major indexes, sectors, and foreign markets. The top four ETF issuers—Vanguard, BlackRock's iShares, Invesco, and State Street—control $9 trillion in assets, staking a commanding lead over everyone else. Just below the giants is a long and growing tail of ETFs snaking through every market crevice. Investors who want exposure to oil, for instance, gravitate to the U.S. Oil Fund. The SPDR Gold Shares is the leading choice for the precious metal. In crypto, the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF has become the biggest of the bunch, holding $75 billion in assets. Regardless of what they own, most ETFs owe their popularity to convenience, low costs, and tax efficiency. A big difference from mutual funds is intraday liquidity. You can buy or sell ETFs like a stock. Orders for mutual funds, by contrast, are priced once at the 4 p.m. market close. Liquidity is a big reason ETFs are so widely used by hedge funds, and it can be helpful if there's a big market move and you want to sell a position quickly. Crucially, most ETFs are more tax-efficient than mutual funds. While the details are complicated, ETF portfolio managers are rarely obliged to sell underlying shares of a stock or other asset. Instead, they continuously work with trading firms to swap holdings and shares as needed. Under normal market circumstances, the process keeps a fund's net asset value aligned with its holdings, avoiding the added complexity of closed-end funds, which often trade at wide discounts or premiums. These arcane details of ETFs have big tax consequences, since security swaps, unlike sales, don't register capital gains to a fund. That means ETF investors typically don't have capital-gains tax bills until they sell their shares, avoiding a big hassle (and expense) of traditional mutual funds, which have to distribute a portfolio's gains each year. ETFs can also be extremely low cost, though fees creep up for products using bespoke strategies. The average annual management ETF fee is below 0.16%, according to Morningstar, less than half the 0.4% average charged by mutual funds. Among active stock ETFs, fees average 0.42%, still well below the 0.57% average for active equity mutual funds. Firms launched more than 500 active ETFs last year, accounting for 70% of new launches and 25% of flows, according to research firm Trackinsight. Many of the new products involve niche strategies, such as buffered ETFs, which use options to give investors exposure to the stock market while capping gains and losses. Firms like Fidelity and T. Rowe Price have dabbled in active ETFs, but they remain quite small; T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation Equity, the firm's largest ETF, with $4.6 billion in assets, hit the market in 2023. It was designed to build on the success of the storied T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation mutual fund, which remains an order of magnitude larger, with $66 billion. Fund companies don't want to cannibalize their mutual funds with lower-cost ETFs. But they may be now be more inclined to launch copycats, thanks partly to an obscure patent expiration. Vanguard, which held the patent until 2023, no longer has a lock on creating ETFs by simply creating an additional share class of an existing fund. Nearly 60 fund firms have filed with the SEC to launch funds following Vanguard's approach, with approvals expected to start this year. 'There's no question the ETF share class structure will be a game-changer," says Nate Geraci, an investment advisor and president of the ETF Store. Whether to own an active ETF comes down to the same issues that plague mutual funds: The vast majority underperform their benchmarks long term, and finding consistent winners is devilishly hard. Consider the rise and fall of Wood's ARK Innovation ETF, known by its ticker, ARKK. Soaring more than 150% in 2020, the fund raked in assets, reaching a peak of $28 billion. But as money flowed in, Wood gravitated to larger-cap stocks and performance fizzled; the fund lost 75% of its value in 2021 and 2022 and has underperformed the Nasdaq Composite by more than 100 percentage points over the past five years. While the Nasdaq's five-year cumulative return is 108%, ARKK's is minus 2%. ARK Investment Management President Tom Staudt says changes in the fund's composition were the result of mergers in tech and gains for ARKK's holdings. Beyond stock ETFs, the rest of the industry's assets sit in everything from bonds and commodities to crypto and other alternatives. Bond ETFs now hold nearly $2 trillion in assets. The biggest ones—Vanguard Total Bond Market and iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond—track the U.S. market, holding Treasuries and other U.S. government bonds, along with investment-grade corporate debt. They can be solid core holdings for investors who use bonds to diversify their portfolio. Fixed-income ETFs also delve into everything from high-yield 'junk" to preferred securities and municipal bonds. Several of them have a long record of beating indexes. Top performers from Pimco, for instance, include Pimco Active Bond and Intermediate Municipal Bond Active. One can also find solid ETFs for Treasury inflation-protected securities, such as JPMorgan Inflation Managed Bond, and in high yield with the VanEck Fallen Angel High Yield Bond. Granted, bond ETFs can have structural flaws. Many individual bonds trade infrequently, especially outside highly liquid Treasury markets. As a result, the ETFs, which may own thousands of securities, rely on mathematical models to estimate their underlying value in real time. In times of market stress, ETF share prices and theoretical values have diverged. In March 2020, during the early days of Covid, the $30 billion iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF closed more than 5% below the estimated value of its portfolio during the trading day. If something like that happens again, it's best to wait until the market stabilizes—which usually happens quickly—before buying or selling, says Aniket Ullal, head of ETF Research at CFRA. 'The models can be a little bit stale," he says, and share prices will eventually converge to underlying holdings. Similar issues arise in ETFs aiming to track commodities, crypto, and other alternatives, as their markets aren't always liquid or transparent and ETF companies use workarounds. Commodity ETFs, for instance, generally hold futures contracts to track things like oil and copper. In most cases, futures substitute for the real thing because it isn't practical to own, say, millions of bushels of corn. Commodity futures are imperfect, though. Because prices for oil futures often drift above or below spot prices, the USO Oil Fund's returns frequently deviate from oil spot price returns. In 2020, Covid-fueled dislocations led near-month oil futures to briefly trade at negative prices. USO lost 75% of its value in the first five months of that year. USO experienced a 'black swan event" in 2020, says Katie Rooney, chief marketing officer at USCF Investments, the fund's sponsor. 'Nevertheless, we made an extra effort to communicate with investors at the time, and USO continued to meet its investment objective." One way around the futures problem is for a fund to be structured like a trust and take ownership of the commodity. While it doesn't work for commodities like oil or copper, it does for gold. The $101 billion SPDR Gold Shares owns gold bars sitting in a vault, and the ETF's price directly corresponds to the value of the bullion. Crypto is a new and untested class of ETFs. The first wave used futures and other derivatives to track Bitcoin, but the SEC in 2024 allowed ETFs to track spot prices and own tokens directly in digital vaults, creating Bitcoin 'trusts." If you're going to invest, stick with the largest and most liquid ETFs backed by blue-chip firms. That would include the iShares Bitcoin Trust and the Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin fund. Crypto ETFs are rapidly moving beyond Bitcoin. The second-largest token, Ethereum, now has 20 ETFs tracking its moves, including funds like iShares Ethereum Trust and Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust. More crypto ETFs are seeking approval from the SEC, tracking tokens like Litecoin, XRP, and Solana, as well as more playful ideas like Dogecoin, Bonkcoin, and even President Trump's personal meme coin. Not all of these will see the light of day, but a Trump-backed SEC is expected to be far more amenable than the agency was under President Joe Biden's SEC chair, Gary Gensler. 'I think you'll sense SEC staff trying to work with the ETF industry to facilitate new types of products, to facilitate innovation," says Brian Murphy, a former SEC attorney and partner at Stradley Ronon. Private assets are also showing up in ETF wrappers, including venture-backed companies that have yet to go public. The ERShares Private-Public Crossover ETF, for example, has nearly 10% of its assets in Elon Musk's SpaceX, along with stakes in private companies such as Klarna and Anduril. Bear in mind that these ETFs provide watered-down access to private securities. Industry rules limit ETFs to holding 15% in private, illiquid assets, and the funds tend to be padded with publicly traded stocks or other securities. The ERShares ETF has more than 80% of its assets in familiar Big Tech names like Nvidia, Oracle, and Meta Platforms. One risk: Private assets are opaque and their values are based on educated guesses rather than broad market price discovery. The ERShares ETF's website pegs SpaceX's value at $185 a share, the same as in December, despite a public feud between Musk and Trump, which hit Musk's other big company, Tesla, hard. The ETF's stakes in SpaceX and other private holdings are also held in a special-purpose vehicle, which charges fees that aren't disclosed to investors. 'We will price SpaceX or Klarna up or down when there is clear evidence the price has changed" or when a 'consensus" price event such as a tender offer emerges, says fund manager Joel Shulman. Whether ETFs can be jury-rigged for private investments is debatable. And investors are taking a leap of faith about how they might trade in a crisis. The SPDR SSGA IG Public & Private Credit ETF has a contract with Apollo as a trading partner, guaranteeing that the ETF will always have at least one place to buy and sell. Whether Apollo would buy back the ETF's assets at full price or a deep discount in a crisis situation isn't known. 'As much as I champion ETFs, not every asset class belongs in an ETF, and I would suggest private credit might fit into that category," says Geraci. Few ETFs are riskier than those using leverage (or borrowed money) to magnify price movements in indexes or individual stocks. Not only is there more daily volatility, but investors won't come close to the returns of a double- or triple-digit move in a stock or index long term. Consider the recent performance of ProShares ETFs designed to magnify bullish and bearish bets on the Nasdaq 100. The UltraPro QQQ is designed to triple the index's daily return, rising 3% on a day when Nasdaq 100 is up 1%. The UltraPro Short QQQ aims to deliver the reverse, rising 3% when the index falls 1%. The Nasdaq 100 has managed to deliver a 8.4% total return year to date. The ProShares 3x long ETF is up 5.5% and the 3x short ETF is down 35.5%. What gives? The funds are designed for single-day movements, and beyond that, all bets are off. A phenomenon known as 'volatility drag" tends to kill their returns over longer periods, especially in rocky markets. ProShares declined to comment. Such complexity has earned leveraged ETFs a bevy of critics. 'I don't think anyone should own them," says Bryan Armour, Morningstar's director of ETF and passive strategies research for North America. As a group, the funds now hold nearly $120 billion in assets, and leveraged ETFs have expanded to single stocks, including eight ETFs pegged to Nvidia alone. Steer clear unless you're a trader with a strong stomach. While the ETF world includes some wild beasts, the place to start is with low-cost index funds as the core of your portfolio. The Vanguard Total World Stock ETF, for instance, owns a portfolio of U.S., developed country, and emerging market stocks for an annual fee of just 0.06%. The Vanguard Total World Bond ETF offers a similar play on fixed income. Using them in combination can give you a full slate of U.S. and international stocks and bonds in just two funds. Investors who want to go deeper can check out the Select Sector SPDR ETFs that break the S&P 500 into 11 industries, including tech and energy. If you are more interested in dividends, take a look at the Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF or, for a slightly different take, ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats, which targets companies that have paid and raised dividends for the past 25 years. When shopping for ETFs, follow some simple rules, says Herb Morgan, chief investment officer of Cantor Fitzgerald Managed ETF Portfolios. Stick with funds that track liquid assets and use established index funds, not 'gimmicky" ETFs developed to sell a product. While newer funds boast back-tested performance that might look good, he notes, investors shouldn't expect it to last, given the long history of most funds falling behind major indexes. The oldest and simplest advice is still the best: 'All things being equal, go for the low price," Morgan says. Write to Ian Salisbury at
Time of India
38 minutes ago
- Time of India
US-Iran deal on cards? Donald Trump meets Saudi defence minister; Tehran sets terms for dialogue
Saudi defence minister Prince Khalid bin Salman (left) (Image: X) and US President Donald Trump (right) (Image: AP) US President Donald Trump met Saudi defence minister Prince Khalid bin Salman at the White House on Thursday to discuss de-escalation efforts with Iran, according to Fox News. Prince Khalid, who is the younger brother of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman , also held talks with White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth . The meeting took place ahead of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu 's Monday meeting with Trump at the White House. Focus on de-escalation and peace: The meeting is crucial for Saudi Arabia as it wants to ease tensions in the region after the recent 12-day war between Israel and Iran. Talks also reportedly covered broader issues of ending the war in Gaza, negotiating the release of remaining hostages and working toward Middle East peace. The Trump administration wants to push for a historic peace deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel in the coming months. Fox news quoting their sources suggested that the meeting was not only about normalizing ties of Saudi Arabia with Israel but also about necessary steps required to reach it. The meeting comes just days after Trump said other countries have expressed interest in joining the Abraham Accords. The recent Middle East conflict dubbed the '12-Day War' saw Israel and the US target Iran's nuclear sites. Strengthening the Abraham Accords: The Abraham Accords, signed at the White House in September 2020 during Trump's first term are a set of agreements that aimed to normalize relations between United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like 5 Books Warren Buffett Wants You to Read In 2025 Blinkist: Warren Buffett's Reading List Undo US special envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff said on June 25 that expanding the accords is one of the president's 'key objectives' and predicted 'big announcements' about new countries joining soon. Last week, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt named Syria as one of the nations Trump is eager to bring into the accords, noting their historic meeting in Saudi Arabia earlier this year during the US President's visit to the Middle East. Saudi-Iran dialogue: The Saudi defence minister spoke on the phone with Iran's Chief of the General Staff, Major General Abdolrahim Mousavi on June 29. 'We discussed developments in the region and the efforts being made to maintain security and stability,' Bin Salman wrote on X. . Witkoff is also planning to meet Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi in Oslo next week to restart nuclear talks, according to Axios. The Iranian foreign ministry said Araghchi spoke on the phone Thursday with Norwegian foreign minister Espen Eide to discuss efforts to ease regional tensions. Trump on Iran talks: Speaking to local media on Thursday, Trump said Iran wants to initiate talks with the US and 'it is time that they do.' He added that the US does not want to hurt Iran. 'I know they want to meet and if it is necessary I will do it,' Trump said. Iran's conditions for talks: In an email interview with ANI, Iran's Ambassador to India, Iraj Elahi, said any negotiations with the US are meaningless unless Washington offers a 'credible guarantee' to prevent future acts of aggression by Israel and the US. 'As for negotiations with the United States, considering their betrayal of diplomacy and complicity with the Zionist regime in launching illegal attacks on Iran, while a diplomatic process was still ongoing, there will be no meaning or value in any talks unless a credible guarantee is provided to prevent the recurrence of such acts of aggression,' he said. Elahi was referring to two major military operations last month. On June 13, Israel launched 'Operation Rising Lion,' carrying out widespread airstrikes on Iranian soil that targeted nuclear sites at Natanz and Fordow and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) command bases. Several senior IRGC commanders and nuclear scientists were reportedly killed. This was followed by US strikes on June 21–22 under 'Operation Midnight Hammer,' which also targeted Iranian nuclear infrastructure. Iran has strongly condemned both operations as blatant violations of international law and the UN Charter.
Time of India
38 minutes ago
- Time of India
Oil prices steady on solid job market, tariff uncertainty
Oil prices were little changed on Friday as a solid job market bolstered the case for the US Federal Reserve keeping interest rates on hold, with investors also awaiting clarity on President Donald Trump's plans for tariffs on various countries. Brent crude futures rose 1 cent, or 0.01 per cent, to $68.81 a barrel by 0036 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude firmed 3 cents, or 0.04 per cent, to $67.03. Trade was thinned by the US Independence Day holiday. The US labour market receded as a risk when new data on Thursday showed that American firms added a more-than-expected 147,000 jobs in June and the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1 per cent - signs the economy remained resilient despite the turbulence and uncertainty over how big tariffs will be. President Trump said Washington will start sending letters to countries on Friday specifying what tariff rates they will face on goods sent to the United States, a clear shift from earlier pledges to strike scores of individual deals. Trump told reporters before departing for Iowa on Thursday the letters would be sent to 10 countries at a time, laying out tariff rates of 20 per cent to 30 per cent. Trump's 90-day pause on higher US tariffs ends on July 9, and several large trading partners have yet to clinch trade deals, including the European Union and Japan. Keeping prices in check, however, OPEC+, the world's largest group of oil producers, is set to announce an increase of 411,000 barrels per day in production for August as it looks to regain market share, four delegates from the group told Reuters. The US also imposed sanctions on Thursday against a network that smuggles Iranian oil disguised as Iraqi oil and on a Hezbollah-controlled financial institution, the Treasury Department said. Barclays on Thursday said it raised its Brent oil price forecast by $6 to $72 per barrel for 2025 and by $10 to $70 a barrel for 2026 on an improved outlook for demand.
