NCAA March Madness: Less Than 1% Of Brackets Remain Perfect On First Day Of Tournament

Forbes

21-03-2025

A sliver of bracket submissions for this year's NCAA March Madness men's tournament remained perfect Thursday night, during the first day of the college basketball competition, as entrants face near-impossible odds of perfectly predicting the outcomes of the tournament's 63 games.
Over half of the brackets submitted to the NCAA were busted after game one of the tournament. (Photo ... [+] by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)
The NCAA said Thursday evening that of the over 34 million brackets submitted at the start of March Madness, approximately 36,000 remained perfect.
No. 12 seed McNeese State University held on for a win against No. 5 seed Clemson University in a 69-67 nail-biter Thursday afternoon, in the biggest upset of the tournament thus far, reducing perfect brackets from 11 million at the start of the game to just under 2 million after the buzzer.
When No 10. Arkansas scored a 79-72 win over No. 7 Kansas, the number of perfect brackets dropped below 1%.
The second biggest upset of the night then saw No. 11 seed Drake University beat No. 6 Missouri 67-57, slashing the number of perfect brackets by more than half once again.
The first game of the tournament, Creighton University's 89-75 win over the University of Louisville, busted over half of the brackets submitted to the NCAA.
About 540,000 brackets submitted with ESPN remained perfect after the tournament's first eight games, a small fraction of the 24.3 million brackets submitted to the sports network.
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One in 9.22 quintillion if bracket submitters flip a coin or just guess for their picks. The odds improve but stay infinitesimally small if submitters have knowledge of the competing teams and NCAA basketball, lowering to one in 120.2 billion, according to the NCAA. A perfect bracket requires the outcome of a whopping 63 games to be called correctly.
X, formerly known as Twitter, is offering a trip to Mars to anyone who submits a perfect bracket and $100,000 to the best bracket. If the potential perfect bracket winner does not want to make the roughly 140 million-mile voyage to Mars, they can instead receive $250,000, a SpaceX astronaut training experience and a Starship launch viewing.
ESPN has randomly drawn prizes including 20 grand prizes of $5,000 for people who predict the national champion. USA Today Sports will reward $1 million to people who submit a perfect bracket. The NCAA's Bracket Challenge Sweepstakes gives the contestant with the best bracket two tickets to next year's men's Final Four, a four-night hotel stay, $1,500 for airfare and $750 in spending money. (See here for other men's and women's March Madness bracket rewards).
Nobody has ever picked a verifiably perfect March Madness bracket, according to the NCAA. The closest a contestant has come was in 2019, when an Ohio man predicted 49 out of the tournament's 63 games, losing his streak during the Elite Eight round. Duke University is favored to win this year's tournament, according to DraftKings odds, which lists the powerhouse at a +320 betting line, meaning a $100 bet could net bettors $320. Following Duke in the odds race are the University of Florida (+380), Auburn University (+450) and the University of Houston (+600).
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