Could Apple Eventually Bring iPhone Manufacturing To The U.S.?

Forbes

22-04-2025

Manufacturing in America: The Reshoring Reality Check
Over the past month, I've fielded a wave of calls from media outlets and industry leaders, all circling the same question: could Apple eventually bring iPhone manufacturing to the United States?
I've spent four decades covering the tech industry, and some of these conversations have stirred memories of earlier chapters in my career—like the study I co-authored in the early 1980s for major PC clients, analyzing the rise of outsourcing in Asia. Additionally, I explored why American manufacturing began shifting overseas—first to Japan, then across Southeast Asia—beginning in the 1950s and '60s. These patterns still echo today.
At that time, the PC industry was in its infancy, and the cost of making PCs was high. As PC competition accelerated, PC companies started looking at ways to make PCs at lower costs; thus, we were one of the companies asked to help them research these issues.
To write these reports, our team looked closely at a U.S. businessman named W. Edwards Deming.
"In 1950, Japanese businessmen turned to an obscure American from Wyoming to help them rebuild an economy shattered in World War II. That industrial expert, W. Edwards Deming, taught Japan's manufacturers how to produce top-quality products economically. Companies such as Toyota Motor Corp. and Sony Corp. adopted Deming's concepts and became world-class producers in their fields, helping Japan become one of the planet's dominant economic powers. Japan's rise was the start of a regional metamorphosis. Asia eventually became a manufacturing giant.
The Japanese used that knowledge to turn the global economy on its head and beat U.S. industry at its own game."
Our study ultimately concluded that given increased competition in PCs, PC companies should explore offshoring. Indeed, almost all PC companies moved their manufacturing to Asia, which by then had developed manufacturing facilities and a workforce to support them.
Today, with all the push to bring back manufacturing to the U.S., one thing has become abundantly clear: manufacturing in America is undergoing a fundamental transformation that politicians and many economic forecasters simply aren't acknowledging. The rhetoric about bringing manufacturing jobs "back home" in substantial numbers collides with several undeniable market realities. Here is what's actually happening on the ground:
The labor shortage in manufacturing isn't just a short-term problem—it's structural. With nearly half of the projected 3.8 million manufacturing positions potentially going unfilled by 2033, we're facing a demographic cliff. The manufacturing workforce is aging out, and younger Americans simply aren't interested in factory work, regardless of its patriotic appeal.
This perception gap is telling: while Americans broadly support manufacturing (80%), only a quarter want these jobs for themselves. Having visited many factories throughout my career, I've witnessed this disconnect firsthand. Young workers are gravitating toward technology and service sector opportunities that offer different career trajectories.
What's particularly noteworthy is how manufacturing job quality has deteriorated. The union-protected, pension-backed manufacturing job that built the American middle class has largely disappeared. Modern manufacturing employment often offers less compensation and stability than alternatives, which further dampens interest.
The automation factor cannot be overstated. Companies like Adidas, with its Speedfactory, (a robot-centric, on-demand concept) demonstrate the future – highly automated facilities with minimal human intervention.
In 2017 when Ford invested $1.2 billion to modernize a plant, it added just 130 jobs. That wasn't an anomaly—it's the template for modern manufacturing.
Reshoring will undoubtedly continue, particularly in strategic sectors like semiconductors, but the economic impact will come primarily from technological advancement, not massive employment growth. The tooling and injection molding sectors are bright spots, but they're specialized niches rather than mass employers.
The skills mismatch presents another substantial hurdle. Today's manufacturing requires STEM knowledge, programming capabilities, and systems thinking – not the manual dexterity that previous generations of factory workers relied upon. Our education system hasn't pivoted quickly enough to address this gap.
Looking ahead, I see manufacturing's future in America as one centered on high-tech, automated production. The economic value will be significant, but the employment profile will be dramatically different than what many envision when they speak of "bringing manufacturing back."
The notion that we can recreate the manufacturing landscape of the 1950s and 1960s isn't just unlikely – it's impossible in today's global, technology-driven marketplace. The question isn't whether manufacturing will return to America but rather what form it will take and who will benefit from its transformation.
As for the question of Apple moving iPhone manufacturing to the U.S., knowing what it takes to make iPhones in quantity, Tim Cook says it the best. He recently explained, "Apple manufactures iPhones in China due to the country's vast pool of skilled tooling engineers and advanced manufacturing expertise, not low labor costs, as China excels in precision and vocational skills compared to the U.S."
My personal, researched opinion is that Apple's production of large quantities of iPhones in the U.S. is not feasible today or in our automated future.
While advanced manufacturing may grow in economic importance, traditional factory jobs are unlikely to return to scale due to automation, labor shortages, and shifting worker priorities. The future lies in high-tech, automated production—not the labor-intensive roles of the past.
Disclosure: Apple subscribes to Creative Strategies research reports along with many other high tech companies around the world.