Crude futures flat as geopolitical risks offset supply surge
Oil prices steadied on Thursday as investors weighed the risk of supply shortages amid U.S. President Donald Trump's push for a swift resolution to the war in Ukraine through more tariffs, though a surprise build in U.S. crude stocks weighed on prices.
Brent crude futures for September, set to expire on Thursday, fell 10 cents, or 0.1%, to $73.14 a barrel by 0345 GMT. The more active Brent October contract was down 14 cents, or 0.2%, at $72.33.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for September dropped 5 cents, or 0.1%, to $69.95 a barrel.
Both benchmarks settled 1% higher on Wednesday.
"Oil contracts have been caught in a holding pattern today, oscillating within a tight range as neither buyers nor sellers muster the conviction to take prices decisively higher or lower, especially on the crux of the August 1 deadline" for new U.S. tariffs, said Priyanka Sachdeva, a senior market analyst at Phillip Nova.
"On one hand, Trump's hawkish rhetoric on Russian oil sanctions continues to underpin tight-market premiums; on the other, a firm dollar, tepid global growth indicators, and that surprise EIA build are capping gains," Sachdeva added.
Trump said he would start imposing measures on Russia, including 100% secondary tariffs on its trading partners, if it did not make progress on ending the war within 10-12 days, moving up an earlier 50-day deadline.
"Concerns that secondary tariffs on countries importing Russian crude will tighten supplies continue to drive buying interest," said Toshitaka Tazawa, an analyst at Fujitomi Securities.
The U.S. has also warned China, the largest buyer of Russian oil, that it could face huge tariffs if it kept buying.
On Wednesday, the U.S. Treasury Department announced fresh sanctions on over 115 Iran-linked individuals, entities and vessels, in a sign the Trump administration is doubling down on its "maximum pressure" campaign after bombing Tehran's key nuclear sites in June.
Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 7.7 million barrels in the week ending July 25 to 426.7 million barrels, driven by lower exports, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. Analysts had expected a 1.3 million-barrel draw.
Gasoline stocks fell by 2.7 million barrels to 228.4 million barrels, far exceeding forecasts for a 600,000-barrel draw.
"U.S. inventory data showed a surprise build in crude stocks, but a bigger-than-expected gasoline draw supported the view of strong driving season demand, resulting in a neutral impact on oil market," Fujitomi Securities' Tazawa said.
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