Beijing ready with fresh tactics if Manila launches new South China Sea case: expert

Yahoo

18-02-2025

Armed with "more diverse tools", Beijing will not sit idle this time if Manila launches a second high-profile arbitration case against Beijing over the South China Sea, according to a leading Chinese maritime expert.
The Philippines is considering another legal challenge against Beijing over the disputed waterway.
One option is for the Philippines to sue China for the alleged extraction of giant clams and substantial ecological harm to coral reefs within Manila's exclusive economic zone.
Do you have questions about the biggest topics and trends from around the world? Get the answers with SCMP Knowledge, our new platform of curated content with explainers, FAQs, analyses and infographics brought to you by our award-winning team.
In an interview with the South China Morning Post, Wu Shicun, the founder of the National Institute for South China Sea Studies, said Beijing could take strong countermeasures to show its resolve and escalate costs for Manila in response to its initiation of legal proceedings.
"The very fact that the Philippines is pursuing a legal challenge suggests that it benefited from the first case and sees the attempt as a worthwhile endeavour," Wu said on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference on the weekend.
"To counter this, China must ensure that the costs for the Philippines outweigh the gains, making its actions a futile effort."
An effective countermeasure could involve Beijing imposing a deadline for Manila to remove the BRP Sierra Madre - a World War II-era tank landing ship intentionally stationed on Second Thomas Shoal - Wu suggested. Should Manila fail to comply with the deadline, Beijing could assume responsibility for towing the vessel away, he added.
Developing infrastructure on Scarborough Shoal - including a coastguard law enforcement base, logistical support installations, marine environmental research institutions and lighthouses - would also be feasible to fortify Chinese control.
"Furthermore, China's reaction may also act as a cautionary signal to other countries regarding the repercussions of undertaking similar measures," Wu said.
Scarborough Shoal, known as Panatag in the Philippines and Huangyan Island in China, is a triangular cluster of small, low-lying rocky islets within Manila's 200-nautical-mile exclusive economic zone. Since 2012, China has maintained control over this area, despite competing claims from Manila.
In 2016, the Philippines secured a victory at the Permanent Court of Arbitration, which determined that China's extensive territorial claims in the South China Sea were unfounded under international law.
China adhered to its "four noes" policy in the case - no acceptance, no participation, no recognition and no implementation - but Wu hinted that China's response "might not be that simple" this time.
The South China Sea has increasingly become a source of international tension. Last week, Australia and China traded barbs over their mid-air encounter in the Paracel Islands, known as the Xisha Islands in China and the Hoang Sa Islands in Vietnam. The archipelago is the subject of a long-standing and contentious maritime dispute between Beijing and Hanoi.
Canberra said a Chinese J-16 fighter jet released flares within 30 metres (98 feet) of an Australian surveillance plane over the area and called the incident an "unsafe and dangerous" manoeuvre. Beijing defended its action and accused Australia of violating its sovereignty and entering its airspace.
The mid-air incident marks the latest in a series of episodes between China and external countries or claimants within the increasingly disputed airspace and maritime routes of Asia.
Referring to the recent development, Wu foresaw more foreign military involvement in the waterway and said the expanded presence of foreign military activities in the South China Sea represented a pressing new challenge that China must confront.
"These military operations may extend beyond conventional naval and aerial manoeuvres, poised to broaden into the spheres of unmanned equipment and undersea activities," he said.
Wu, who is chairman of the Huayang Centre for Maritime Cooperation and Ocean Governance in Hainan, has emphasised the urgent need for crisis-management mechanisms and legally binding rules to govern military interactions in the air and at sea, to prevent collisions.
US President Donald Trump has yet to articulate a clear US position or strategy on the South China Sea issues. According to Wu, this is because Trump is occupied with domestic issues, and the maritime dispute is not his priority.
"At this juncture, forecasting the future policy direction of the United States in the South China Sea is challenging, particularly in terms of the level of US military support extended to the Philippines. It may take from six months to a year to fully discern how Washington's policy in the region will evolve," he said.
The Trump administration may re-evaluate the value of the US-Philippine military alliance and the military support offered to the Philippines throughout the years, according to Wu.
"In a sense, the provocative encouragement by Washington is unlikely to exceed what occurred during the Biden era," he said.
Ian Bremmer, founder and president of the New York-based Eurasia Group, also said Trump would be more focused on bilateral trade unless Chinese action or a sudden conflict drew his attention to the South China Sea.
"But short of that, I don't think this is a policy priority for him," he told the Post on the sidelines of the Munich conference.
During a panel discussion about the waterway during the conference, former Chinese deputy foreign minister Fu Ying expressed concern that "the shadow of the US" behind the claimant's actions was alarming to China.
Ng Eng Hen, Singapore's defence minister, indicated in the panel discussion that the conflict extended beyond mere territorial claims, with major global powers influencing the dynamics of the region.
"China's actions in the South China Sea, if we are frank about it, are a response to US containment strategy ... Now China is saddled with two conflicting goals. While it needs to show strength and power to the US and its allies, China also needs to manage its relations with its smaller neighbours in Asean," Ng said.
"You either accept that there is strategic rivalry, the great game, is going on in the South China Sea or you don't. And whether there are mechanisms to reduce conflict, whether external powers are needed, those are all self-evident questions with self-evident answers."
This article originally appeared in the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the most authoritative voice reporting on China and Asia for more than a century. For more SCMP stories, please explore the SCMP app or visit the SCMP's Facebook and Twitter pages. Copyright © 2025 South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.
Copyright (c) 2025. South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.