Trump's immigration agenda is growing unpopular. Should he pull back?

Washington Post

17 hours ago

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The government's mass deportation of unauthorized immigrants, a signature promise of Donald Trump's presidential campaign, is in full swing. Border crossings reached an all-time low in June, and Immigrations and Customs Enforcement — newly appropriated a $178 billion budget increase by Congress — is staging massive raids across the country.
Yet Americans are souring toward the president's immigration crackdown. According to a new Gallup poll, only 35 percent of Americans approve of Trump's handling of immigration — down from 46 percent in February — against 62 percent who disapprove. Nearly four-fifths now say immigration is a good thing for the country.
Why are Americans' views on immigration shifting, and what does this mean for the future of immigration policy? I'm joined by my colleagues Ramesh Ponnuru and Natasha Sarin to discuss.
— Eduardo Porter, columnist and editorial board member
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Eduardo Porter So what's going on? Buyer's remorse?
Ramesh Ponnuru There is enough polling to indicate that falling support for Trump's immigration policies, especially his enforcement within the United States, is a real phenomenon and not a blip. I think there are three main causes: the public perception that Trump is implementing his policies with unnecessary brutality; the fading urgency of the issue now that Trump has succeeded at the border itself; and the public's tendency to zig when a president seems to be zagging a lot.
Natasha Sarin To add one: I suspect (well, as an economist, hope!) one of the reasons these efforts aren't popular is that Americans are starting to realize they are bad for the economy. In construction, 20 percent of the workforce are unauthorized immigrants. That's a big deal, and all this is massively disruptive.
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Eduardo Indeed. Unauthorized immigrants account for half of workers in agriculture. So a hard crackdown would hit the price and availability of all sorts of food.
Ramesh Which is one reason Trump keeps signaling that he might be willing to make an exception to his tough campaign against illegal immigration for the industries that rely on it most.
Eduardo Natasha, do you agree with Ramesh's assessment here? Will carve-outs become the course of the immigration policy?
Natasha Yes, but that's not enough, in some sense, to offset economic impact. Mass deportations mean fewer people are building homes and spending money in the U.S., which shrinks the economy. And Congress just gave ICE $178 billion — more than most other federal law enforcement agencies combined.
Ramesh I don't see this administration pulling back. It would first have to incur much more political damage than it has so far, like the kind that led Trump to end the family-separation disaster in his first term. What remains interesting to me is that the administration has shown so little interest in expanding the use of E-Verify (which does not mean attempting to deport all undocumented immigrants, since it would apply only to new hires) so employers could do some of the work of enforcement. It would certainly raise the hackles of a lot of employers whose support Trump currently enjoys, but I think that if you're looking for the most enforcement in the least intrusive and brutal way, that's the way to go.
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Eduardo The fact that E-Verify has not been deployed broadly is, to my mind, proof that no administration in the past 30 years has really been serious about eliminating unauthorized workers at scale.
Natasha Agreed with Ramesh. I see no signs that the administration is pulling back from these efforts. A report came out Tuesday detailing efforts between the IRS and ICE to share data about undocumented immigrants who pay into the tax system each year. This goes against decades of norms and laws around taxpayer privacy and will impact the tax revenue we collect from unauthorized immigrants going forward — $66 billion annually!
Eduardo I've been skeptical that Trump will engage in workplace enforcement for real. He would be messing with powerful business lobbies that are very influential in the Republican Party. The raids so far have been largely a performance to demonstrate he is not kidding. But he won't try to remove 8 million workers from the labor market. What's your take?
Natasha Businesses are very concerned about all this. Companies — particularly in food production, tech and construction — are reporting that raids are having a negative impact on their operations. It's hard for me to guess the intent of the president or the administration. But I think generally, on matters of policy, we've learned during this term that you kind of have to take them at their word.
Eduardo What do Americans actually want on immigration? Joe Biden's main problem with immigration was the hundreds of thousands of prospective asylum seekers creating this sense of chaos at the border. But that is largely over; fear of Trump apparently is a powerful deterrent. Very few migrants are showing up at the border these days. Could Trump not just take the win? Say 'mission accomplished' and not pursue undocumented migrants already living in the U.S.?
Ramesh The public has conflicting impulses on immigration, which is one reason the polls seesaw in response to what presidents do. I don't think people want to see all unauthorized immigrants deported — especially 'dreamers' but really anyone who has put down roots here and followed the law. But I think the undocumented population has to appreciably shrink, and the public has to be reassured that the law will be enforced going forward. Only once that is accomplished can we move forward with steps such as offering legal status to a significant share of unauthorized immigrants.
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Eduardo We all agree that some reform of the system is needed. But what would it look like? Would it have the three main pillars of prior attempts — i.e., some process to legalize undocumented immigrants who have been in the country a long time, some provision to legally provide employers with temporary migrant workers, and a mechanism that secures the border and prevents unauthorized immigrants from working?
Natasha FWIW, I think the pillars are more like: border security, fixing the asylum system, expanding pathways to legal immigration in light of clear economic benefits, and easing the pathway to citizenship for people who have roots here and have positively contributed to their communities.
Ramesh I don't think you can put a ton of immigration policies together in one package and expect it to work politically. That strategy has an extensive track record of failure. Reform would have to be piecemeal and sequential. I also don't favor guest-worker programs on principle — if we want people to work here, we should ask them to join our society — but if some such programs are needed to get worthwhile legislation passed, I could live with it. But we are a looong way away from that type of bargaining.
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Eduardo Final thoughts? My take is we haven't seen enlightened immigration policy since the 1980s (and that attempt was also flawed). And I have zero optimism that we will achieve something enlightened now, but I'm just a grumpy old journalist.
Natasha What we are witnessing now is clearly not the solution.
Ramesh My advice to those liberals and Democrats who are glad to see these latest polls is to take seriously that they still have a problem: The public does not believe they are serious about enforcing the immigration laws. That's going to be a lingering weakness for them even if a backlash to Trump's policies helps them do well in 2026.
Eduardo I would agree with that. Let's just see how far and how solidly the administration's tactics move the needle among voters.