DOGE math 200 days in

Politico

17 hours ago

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The Department of Government Efficiency is drastically overstating its savings, according to a new POLITICO analysis of public data and federal spending records.
Through July, DOGE said it has saved taxpayers $52.8 billion by canceling contracts, but of the $32.7 billion in actual claimed contract savings that POLITICO could verify, DOGE's savings over that period were closer to $1.4 billion.
And despite the administration's claims, not a penny of those savings will lower the federal deficit unless Congress intervenes. Instead, the money was returned to agencies mandated by law to spend it.
POLITICO's findings come on top of months of scrutiny of DOGE's accounting, but the magnitude of DOGE's inflated savings claims has not been clear until now.
West Wing Playbook sat down with JESSIE BLAESER to discuss her reporting.
This conversation has been edited for length and clarity.
How did you come up with the idea of doing this analysis?
From the early days of contracting experts pointing out flaws in DOGE's savings math, I knew we'd eventually be able to use federal spending records to see what DOGE had actually done. This piece is the first to do that: to hold up what DOGE has said it has saved taxpayers from canceling contracts against what the real receipts say.
What was the most surprising finding from your reporting?
The way the administration has taken action (or not) on the contracts it has listed for termination, particularly when it comes to contracts' ceiling value. For context, one expert explained the ceiling value on a contract as a 'credit card limit.' So, imagine lowering your credit card limit by $20,000 and saying you just saved $20,000. That is exactly what DOGE is doing to calculate savings. But even when using that fuzzy logic, DOGE still falls short of its claims by over half. And even that amount won't go toward reducing the deficit.
Why? Because agencies have to spend the funds Congress gives them.
What does it tell us about the quality or the scope of DOGE's work?
In reality, we won't know the true scope or impact of DOGE's terminated contracts for years. At most, DOGE's savings claims for canceled contracts amounts to the absolute maximum the government could avoid paying on these specific deals. That number, known as the 'contract ceiling,' was never guaranteed to be spent in the first place.
There's also no way to predict how much terminating these contracts will actually cost. There is an inevitable price tag associated with closing out a contract — costs like outstanding payments, litigation fees or the cost of administrative time.
What was the biggest challenge in verifying DOGE contracts?
Every contract is different, and that's part of the reason why DOGE math doesn't work. On top of that, some contracts on DOGE's page lack any identifying information. I had to navigate how to capture every single contract we could and every action the administration has actually taken on them. That's a lot of data points to check and contextualize against DOGE's claims.
What's your next reporting target in this vein of the Trump remaking government?
We'll keep reporting on the reality of DOGE's cost cutting compared to the group's claims. The more DOGE posts and the more time that passes, the more we will be able to contextualize DOGE's true impact.
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POTUS PUZZLER
Who was the one president to be born in Illinois?
(Answer at bottom.)
In the Courts
DOGE GETS THE DATA: A federal appeals court panel today cleared the way for DOGE to access data held by the Office of Personnel Management and departments of Treasury and Education, thwarting a lawsuit brought by public sector unions, our KYLE CHENEY writes in.
The 2-1 ruling lifts a preliminary injunction issued in March by U.S. District Judge DEBORAH BOARDMAN restricting the ELON MUSK outfit's access to sensitive employee information. The opinion, authored by DONALD TRUMP appointee Judge JULIUS RICHARDSON and joined by GEORGE W. BUSH appointee Judge G. STEVEN AGEE, concludes that the unions likely lacked standing to sue over the issue.
'The harm that might come from this generalized grant of database access to an additional handful of government employees — prone as they may be to hacks or leaks, as Plaintiffs have alleged — seems different in kind, not just in degree, from the harm inflicted by reporters, detectives, and paparazzi,' the judges wrote.
Judge ROBERT KING, a BILL CLINTON appointee, dissented, saying the majority opinion set an unusually high bar for the unions to clear. He also noted that the full bench of the 4th Circuit is slated to weigh in on the matter when it considers a separate case on DOGE's access to Social Security data.
Agenda Setting
IN THE HOT SEAT: The Justice Department found George Washington University failed to adequately address antisemitism on campus, making it the latest college to face scrutiny from the Trump administration, our BIANCA QUILANTAN reports. The agency said it is offering GWU the chance to enter into a voluntary resolution agreement before the officials proceed with enforcement but did not include the terms the school must agree to in their notice. The university did not respond to a request for comment.
A PERFECT LOOPHOLE: Trump's pick to lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics, E.J. ANTONI, floated in a recent Fox News interview the idea of suspending the monthly jobs report in favor of less frequent quarterly data published by the agency, our NICK NIEDZWIADEK reports. In a change that would almost certainly unnerve markets, Antoni said that BLS should halt issuing reports — widely relied upon by economists, the Federal Reserve and Wall Street to gauge the state of the economy — until its methods can be improved to limit subsequent revisions.
White House press secretary KAROLINE LEAVITT diverted from that opinion at the podium this afternoon, saying the 'plan and hope' is for BLS to still put out monthly reports.
ALL ABOUT ME: The White House is planning to conduct a far-reaching review of Smithsonian museum exhibitions, materials and operations ahead of the nation's 250th anniversary to ensure the museums align with Trump's interpretation of American history, WSJ's MERIDITH McGRAW reports.
In a letter sent to LONNIE BUNCH, the secretary of the Smithsonian Institution, three top White House officials said they want to ensure the museums' 'unity, progress and enduring values that define the American story' and reflect the president's executive order calling for 'Restoring Truth and Sanity to American History.'
A spokesperson for the Smithsonian didn't respond to a request for comment.
WHO'S IN, WHO'S OUT
THE ROOOMATE BOND KNOWS NO BOUNDS: The Justice Department chief of staff, CHAD MIZELLE, is moving to appoint his wedding groomsman and law school housemate as an official overseeing corporate fraud, Bloomberg Law's BEN PENN reports. Although the effort is not finalized, Mizelle is pushing to install CODY HERCHE as the DOJ criminal division's deputy supervising the fraud and appellate sections.
Compared to his predecessors, including in Trump's first term, Herche has far less experience in criminal trials and leading prosecutors, but a DOJ spokesperson defended his 'wealth of experience' in a statement, Penn reports. The final decision lies with Attorney General PAM BONDI pending the president's approval.
What We're Reading
Trump officials cast a wider net for Powell replacement at Fed (POLITICO's Victoria Guida)
Kari Lake's Attempt to Deport Her Own Employees (The Atlantic's Toluse Olorunnipa)
The Palestinian Who Led a Militia, a Theater and a Jailbreak (NYT's Patrick Kingsley and Fatima AbdulKarim)
POTUS PUZZLER ANSWER
That would be former President RONALD REAGAN, who was born in Tampico, Illinois, in 1911, where he resided for 22 years until moving to Iowa to pursue a career in sports broadcasting.