Japan PM hangs on after election debacle

France 24

21-07-2025

The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which has governed almost continuously since 1955, and its partner Komeito had to win 50 seats in Sunday's election but they fell three short, national broadcaster NHK reported.
Voters angry at inflation turned to other parties, notably the "Japanese first" Sanseito, which made strong gains with its "anti-globalist" drive echoing the agenda of populist parties elsewhere.
"I even think (the LDP) should have lost more," 25-year-old Kazuyo Nanasawa, who voted for a small ultra-conservative party, told AFP, adding that Ishiba should quit.
The debacle comes only months after Ishiba's coalition was forced into a minority government in the more powerful lower house, in the LDP's worst result in 15 years.
But asked late Sunday if he intended to remain in office, Ishiba told local media: "That's right."
"The deadline of (US) tariffs is coming on August 1. Until then we have to do our best with our body and soul," he said.
If Ishiba does go, it was unclear who might step up to replace him now that the government needs opposition support in both chambers to pass legislation.
LDP supporter Takeshi Nemoto, 80, told AFP that a new leadership contest "would be a losing battle" for the party, further complicating tariff talks with US President Donald Trump's administration.
"Diplomacy is under pressure at the moment," agreed Shuhei Aono, 67. "Who is going to take care of it? I think (Ishiba) cannot easily withdraw."
'Japanese first'
The election saw 125 seats in the 248-seat upper house contested.
The coalition needed 50 of those but local media reported they only won 47, with the LDP winning 39 and Komeito eight, giving them 122 deputies.
Second-placed was the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP), which won 22 contested seats, followed by the Democratic Party For the People (DPP) with 17.
The right-wing Sanseito party won 14 seats.
Sanseito wants "stricter rules and limits" on immigration, opposes "radical" gender policies, and wants a rethink on decarbonisation and vaccines.
It was forced last week to deny any links to Moscow -- which has backed populist parties elsewhere -- after a candidate was interviewed by Russian state media.
The opposition is fragmented, and chances are slim that the parties can form an alternative government, Hidehiro Yamamoto, politics and sociology professor at the University of Tsukuba, told AFP.
Expanding the coalition would be difficult, with the DPP the most likely partner "on the condition that (the government) delivers some of the positive fiscal measures, such as tax cuts," he said.
More likely is that Ishiba will continue needing opposition support on a case-by-case basis to pass legislation.
In return the opposition could press for consumption tax to be cut or abolished, something which Ishiba has opposed in view of Japan's colossal national debts of over 200 percent of gross domestic product.
Trump tariffs
After years of stagnant or falling prices, consumers in the world's fourth-largest economy have been squeezed by inflation since Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
In particular, the price of rice has doubled, squeezing many household budgets despite government handouts.
Not helping is lingering resentment about an LDP funding scandal, and US tariffs of 25 percent due to bite from August 1 if there is no trade deal with the United States.
Japanese imports are already subject to a 10 percent tariff, while the auto industry, which accounts for eight percent of jobs, is reeling from a 25 percent levy.
Despite Ishiba securing an early meeting with Trump in February, there has been no trade accord. On Monday tariffs envoy Ryosei Akazawa left on his eighth visit to Washington.
"There's no impact from the election result (on the negotiations)," Akazawa told reporters at Tokyo's Haneda airport, saying that Japan's national interest remained the "top priority."
© 2025 AFP