College football 2025 win totals Bruce Feldman likes most: Is Clemson an 11-1 team?

New York Times

18-05-2025

Last week, Stewart Mandel and I talked on 'The Audible' about our best bets among teams in their season win totals for 2025. It was during that conversation that I decided to jump back on the Clemson/Dabo Swinney bandwagon, which seemed mostly abandoned over the past few years. The Tigers are one of my best bets to go over. They do open against a loaded LSU team, but the game is at Clemson, where Dabo is 102-11 (though they lost two games there last season). And Brian Kelly has also lost all three of his LSU season openers.
Here are my top picks. Win totals for 2025 are from BetMGM.
The Tigers have hit on a bunch of recruits over the past few years, and I like the addition of defensive coordinator Tom Allen, who inherits a lot of talent and will make Clemson pretty salty again. Last year, the defense ranked No. 64 in yards per play allowed, No. 68 in red zone touchdown percentage, and No. 85 against the run. I expect Allen to tighten that up. I'm told this defense is really motivated to turn the page.
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Peter Woods is a very disruptive 315-pounder inside, and TJ Parker is a talented pass rusher outside. Clemson also added five-star recruit Amare Adams, a 6-3, 305-pounder who the staff thinks can be special. He wowed them in the spring. Purdue transfer Will Heldt, at 6-6, 265, is another very good player. On the second level, the Tigers have Sammy Brown, a speedy linebacker who was a huge recruit for them and looked every bit as good as his hype last year. Wade Woodaz is another stud linebacker, and at defensive back, they have a top corner in Avieon Terrell.
Offensively, they should be explosive. Cade Klubnik had a breakout season in 2024, and now the receivers, particularly Antonio Williams, Bryant Wesco Jr. and T.J. Moore, look like a lot like whom Tajh Boyd, Deshaun Watson and Trevor Lawrence were throwing to. They have four starting O-linemen back, led by Blake Miller. They have to replace Phil Mafah at RB, but freshman Gideon Davidson turned heads in the spring. He has great vision and is very versatile.
Clemson is a legitimate top-five team again. Clemson's two toughest games figure to be their first one (against LSU) and their last one, at South Carolina. It goes to Georgia Tech, UNC and Boston College, and hosts SMU, Duke and FSU. I think 11-1 is very realistic.
I feel as good about the Tigers as any team coming into 2025. If I had to predict the national title game matchup now, almost 250 days away, I'd predict Clemson versus Texas.
The Cougars have an experienced quarterback in Jake Retzlaff, whom they run enough to pick up key first downs. There's good skill talent around him, such as running back LJ Martin and receivers Chase Roberts and Parker Kingston. Tight end Carsen Ryan, who transferred from Utah, should be a terrific addition. They'll have one of the best linebacker groups in the country led by Jack Kelly and Isaiah Glasker.
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They have six games they'll have a clear advantage in: Portland State, Stanford, ECU, Arizona, Cincinnati and UCF. They go to Boulder to face a Colorado team they smashed in the Alamo Bowl — and a team replacing its starting QB, most of its best receivers and its Heisman winner (Travis Hunter). Beyond that, they have home games against West Virginia, TCU and Utah. Trips to Iowa State and Texas Tech won't be easy.
This one could draw a lot of eye rolls and snickers. The Huskers once again sputtered down the stretch last season, but for the first time since 2016, they made a bowl game — and they won it. Nebraska went 2-5 in games decided by 8 points or less. The bright side is that it was doing it with a true freshman QB in Dylan Raiola and with a makeshift offensive setup late in the season. (Dana Holgorsen took over late.)
Holgorsen is one of the brightest offensive minds in college football, and now he has an entire offseason to fire up the playbook. I've heard Raiola has been outstanding. The Huskers don't have a lot of speed aside from Jacory Barney, who was a freshman last year, but RB Emmett Johnson's a good back, and they added two good transfer WRs, most notably Dane Key from Kentucky.
The Huskers did very well in the portal, adding OT Elijah Pritchett (Alabama) and CB-PR Andrew Marshall (Idaho). LB Marques Watson-Trent (Georgia Southern) was the Sun Belt Conference Defensive Player of the Year.
Nebraska should get off to a fast start, opening with Cincinnati, Akron and Houston Christian. It doesn't play a true road game until mid-October against Maryland. Starting 5-1 seems very plausible. The second half of the schedule looks tougher, but they get Northwestern, USC and Iowa in Lincoln.
Scott Frost worked some wonders in Orlando in his first stint. He can find success there again, but given the roster overhaul here, I was surprised this number was as high as it was. UCF has to replace four of its five starting O-linemen. QBs Tayven Jackson and Jacurri Brown are playmakers, but expecting much consistency behind a rebuilt O-line seems like a big ask, especially considering UCF doesn't have a receiver on the roster who caught a pass last year.
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This team fell apart last year after a stellar 2023, when the Wildcats finished No. 11. They went 4-8 and got blown out in six of them. It's Year 2 for Brent Brennan, who not only has two new coordinators but also has to replace last year's best player, Tetairoa McMillan. Worse still, tackle machine Jacob Manu (217 tackles, 16.5 TFLs) left to reunite with former coach Jedd Fisch at Washington. Arizona also doesn't have safety Gunner Maldonado, who was terrific in 2023 but banged up for much of 2024. He left for Kansas State.
Arizona opens with Hawaii and Weber State, but after that, it's tough to find three games in which it'll be favored. It hosts Oklahoma State and Kansas and visits Cincinnati.
Florida's schedule gives me some pause; it features eight teams that will be ranked at some point in 2025, including the two most talented teams in the SEC — Texas and Georgia. The Gators visit a Miami team that blasted them in The Swamp last year, too. But if I were a Gators fan, I'd be optimistic.
This seems like a very resilient bunch. As rough as things got last year, Billy Napier never lost that team. The players played hard for him. They lost in overtime at Tennessee and were competitive against Georgia despite having to play a third-string QB. When true freshman DJ Lagway got back in the lineup, they beat LSU, Ole Miss (primed to make the College Football Playoff at the time), drilled FSU on the road and then beat Tulane in their bowl game.
There is plenty of talent beyond Lagway. Defensive lineman Tyreak Sapp is one of the best in college football; rival coaches have immense respect for him. Caleb Banks, their big defensive tackle (seven sacks) is another headache for rivals. They also have a seasoned offensive line anchored by center Jake Slaughter.
Against a stacked schedule, expect some inconsistency — but this group is good enough to win eight or nine games.
The Tigers went all in this offseason in the portal and made a bunch of big additions after losing a lot of big-time talent the past two years. They still have Garrett Nussmeier, one of the best QBs in college football, and I expect he will leave Baton Rouge as an NFL Draft first-rounder. The O-line lost four draft picks this offseason, including top-five pick Will Campbell.
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The good news: WR Nic Anderson, a transfer from OU, is super-talented. Kentucky WR transfer Barion Brown might be the fastest CFB player in pads. Braelin Moore from Virginia Tech is an experienced interior lineman. LSU added proven playmakers on the defense: USF's Bernard Gooden (10 TFLs) and FSU's Patrick Payton. The defense last year, which had been woeful, improved under DC Blake Baker in his first season. Harold Perkins, who tore his ACL in Week 4 last year, is expected to be back and ready for fall camp, as its LB Whit Weeks, who suffered a lower leg injury.
The opener at Clemson is daunting, but the in-conference schedule by SEC standards isn't brutal. LSU doesn't play Georgia or Texas and gets South Carolina and Florida at home. This team should be at least a nine-win one.
Justin Wilcox is a good coach, but he doesn't have a lot of resources. Cal was a tough job even before the Pac-12 fell apart. This offseason, the Bears lost a bunch of outstanding players in the portal: QB Fernando Mendoza left for Indiana, and RBs Jaydn Ott and leading rusher Jaivian Thomas went to OU and UCLA. TE Jack Endries went to Texas. WR Nyziah Hunter left for Nebraska. Ohio State transfer QB Devin Brown is very talented, but he hasn't played much.
New Cal general manager Ron Rivera, a former star linebacker for the Bears, has his hands very full.
The Bears open at Oregon State, a team they whipped in 2024, and they visit San Diego State, another team they blew out. But aside from a Week 2 game against Texas Southern and visiting archrival Stanford, whom they barely beat last year, it seems like they'll be an underdog in every game.
(Photo of Dabo Swinney: Grant Halverson / Getty Images)