Breakingviews - Trump's India bullying will yield short term wins
Barring a deal between Washington and Moscow to end the war in Ukraine, New Delhi will probably have to bend to the U.S. will because its scope to retaliate through hard trade measures is limited. The pushback so far is soft: India is pausing talks to buy General Dynamics Land Systems' Stryker combat vehicles, Javelin missiles developed by Raytheon and Lockheed Martin (LMT.N), opens new tab and some Boeing (BA.N), opens new tab planes, Reuters reported on Friday, citing three unnamed Indian officials. The government, though, insists the purchases continue per "extant procedures".
Cutting out Russian oil ought to get the tariff back down to 25% because the increase in the U.S. president's executive order last week was tied to those purchases. It would also test whether Trump intends to further shift the goalposts to force India into a sharper break in its trade relations with Moscow: 21% or roughly $13.5 billion of its imports from Russia last year were non-oil purchases including vegetable oils and fertilisers.
Getting the overall tariff rate negotiated down further looks a stretch. For a start, Washington is demanding India import genetically modified soybeans from American farmers. They are hurting because China has halted its purchases of the U.S. legume. Yet if India steps up, that would amount to abandoning its decades-old restriction on GM food crops.
So India's most powerful retaliation, for now, may be a symbolic show of longer term intentions. Modi's visit to China for a summit of the multilateral Shanghai Cooperation Organisation marks a thaw in their bilateral ties and a growing desire in New Delhi to find ways to tap Chinese expertise and capital. Trade between the neighbours grew 56% over the five years to end March to $128 billion. National Security Adviser Ajit Doval visited the Kremlin last week and India's air force chief on Sunday even hailed Russian-made S-400 missiles as a "gamechanger" in a military face-off with Pakistan that took place back in May.
By forcing India into the same boat as China, the U.S. leader may achieve some short-term wins but he is also cementing the incentive for New Delhi to keep its relationship with Russia warm and pull closer to its direct neighbour.
Follow Shritama Bose on LinkedIn, opens new tab and X, opens new tab.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
The Independent
29 minutes ago
- The Independent
Land swaps with Russia are not only unpopular in Ukraine. They're also illegal
A peace deal that requires Kyiv to accept swapping Ukrainian territory with Russia would not only be deeply unpopular. It also would be illegal under its constitution. That's why President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has categorically rejected any deal with Moscow that could involve ceding land after U.S. President Donald Trump suggested such a concession would be beneficial to both sides, ahead of his meeting Friday with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska. Zelenskyy said over the weekend that Kyiv 'will not give Russia any awards for what it has done,' and that 'Ukrainians will not give their land to the occupier.' The remarks came after Trump said a peace deal would involve swapping of Ukrainian territories by both sides 'to the betterment of both.' For Zelenskyy, such a deal would be disaster for his presidency and spark public outcry after more than three years of bloodshed and sacrifice by Ukrainians. Moreover, he doesn't have the authority to sign off on it, because changing Ukraine's 1991 borders runs counter to the country's constitution. For now, freezing the front line appears to be an outcome the Ukrainian people are willing to accept. A look at the challenges such proposals entail: Russia occupies about a fifth of Ukraine Russia occupies about a fifth of Ukraine, from the country's northeast to the Crimean Peninsula, which was annexed illegally in 2014. The front line is vast and cuts across six regions — the active front stretches for at least 1,000 kilometers (680 miles) — but if measured from along the border with Russia, it reaches as far as 2,300 kilometers (1,430 miles). Russia controls almost all of the Luhansk region and almost two-thirds of Donetsk region, which together comprise the Donbas, as the strategic industrial heartland of Ukraine is called. Russia has long coveted the area and illegally annexed it in the first year of the full-scale invasion, even though it didn't control much of it at the time. Russia also partially controls more than half of the Kherson region, which is critical to maintain logistical flows of supplies coming in from the land corridor in neighboring Crimea, and also parts of the Zaporizhzhia region, where the Kremlin seized Europe's largest nuclear power plant. Russian forces also hold pockets of territory in Kharkiv and Sumy regions in northeastern Ukraine, far less strategically valuable for Moscow. Russian troops are gaining a foothold in the Dnipropetrovsk region. These could be what Moscow is willing to exchange for land it deems more important in Donetsk, where the Russian army has concentrated most of its effort. 'There'll be some land swapping going on. I know that through Russia and through conversations with everybody. To the good, for the good of Ukraine. Good stuff, not bad stuff. Also, some bad stuff for both,' Trump said Monday. Ukrainian forces are still active in the Kursk region inside Russia, but they barely hold any territory there, making it not as potent a bargaining chip as Kyiv's leaders had probably hoped when they launched the daring incursion across the border last year. Swapping Ukrainian controlled territory in Russia, however minuscule, will likely be the only palatable option for Kyiv in any land swapping scenario. Conceding land risks another invasion Surrendering territory would see those unwilling to live under Russian rule to pack up and leave. Many civilians have endured so much suffering and bloodshed since pro-Moscow forces began battling the Ukrainian military in the east in 2014 and since the full-scale invasion in 2022. From a military standpoint, abandoning the Donetsk region in particular would vastly improve Russia's ability to invade Ukraine again, according to the Washington-based think tank Institute for the Study of War. Bowing to such a demand would force Ukraine to abandon its 'fortress belt,' the main defensive line in Donetsk since 2014, "with no guarantee that fighting will not resume,' the institute said in a recent report. The regional defensive line has prevented Russia's efforts to seize the region and continues to impede Russia's efforts to take the rest of the area, ISW said. Ukraine's constitution poses a major challenge to any deal involving a land swap because it requires a nationwide referendum to approve changes to the country's territorial borders, said Ihor Reiterovych, a politics professor in the Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv. 'Changes in territorial integrity can be done only by the decision of the people — not the president, the cabinet of ministers or the parliament can change it,' he said. 'In the constitution it is written that only by referendum can changes to Ukraine's territory be conducted.' If during negotiations Zelenskyy agrees to swap territory with Russia, "in the same minute he will be a criminal because he would be abandoning the main law that governs Ukraine,' Reiterovych said. Trump said he was 'a little bothered' by Zelenskyy's assertion over the weekend that he needed constitutional approval to cede to Russia the territory that it captured in its unprovoked invasion. 'I mean, he's got approval to go into a war and kill everybody, but he needs approval to do a land swap?' Trump added. 'Because there'll be some land swapping going on. I know that through Russia and through conversations with everybody.' Zelenskyy is still trying to regain the people's trust that was damaged when he reversed course on a law that would have diminished the independence of Ukraine's anti-corruption watchdogs. The move was a red line for those citizens who are protective of the country's institutions and are suspicious of certain members of Zelenskyy's inner circle. Freezing the conflict seems a lesser evil for Ukraine Analysts like Reiterovych dismiss a land swap as a distraction. Freezing the conflict along the current front line is the only option Ukrainians are willing to accept, he said, citing recent polls. This option would also buy time for both sides to consolidate manpower and build up their domestic weapons industries. Ukraine would require strong security guarantees from its Western partners to deter future Russian aggression, which Kyiv believes is inevitable. Still, freezing the conflict will also be difficult for Ukrainians to accept. Along with the illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the partial occupation of Luhansk and Donetsk after that, it would require accepting that the Ukrainian military is not able to retake lost territories militarily. Kyiv accepted its inability to retake these territories but never formally recognized them as Russian. A similar scenario could unfold in the new regions taken by Russian forces. It also is not a viable long-term solution. 'It is the lesser evil option for everyone and it will not provoke protests or rallies on the streets,' Reiterovych said. —- Associated Press journalist Volodymyr Yurchuk contributed.
The Independent
29 minutes ago
- The Independent
Concerns for Briton Jimmy Lai's deteriorating health as landmark trial set to resume in Hong Kong
A leading press freedom group has urged Hong Kong authorities to release pro-democracy media tycoon Jimmy Lai considering his deteriorating health. The 77-year-old British national and founder of the now-shuttered Apple Daily newspaper is facing the prospect of life in prison if found guilty of sedition and collusion with foreign powers under Hong Kong's national security law. He has pleaded not guilty to the charges. Lai has been in prison for nearly six years for his role in the pro-democracy protests of 2019 which led to Beijing imposing the national security law in the city. Reporters Without Borders said in a statement that Lai's health had deteriorated after being in solitary confinement since 2021. The watchdog said the media tycoon had been restricted to just 50 minutes of 'exercise' per day, with barely any access to natural light. The millionaire's son, Sebastien Lai, claimed last year that his father, who suffers from diabetes, had lost a significant amount of weight and that he had been denied independent medical care. A Hong Kong court will begin hearing closing arguments in Lai's national security trial on 14 August. The trial began in December 2023 and was originally scheduled to last 80 days, the rights group said. "Since his arrest, Jimmy Lai has been subjected to inhumane conditions, stripped of every shred of dignity and freedom," said Antoine Bernard of Reporters without Borders. "His treatment exposes the authorities' ruthless determination to silence and suppress one of the most prominent advocates for press freedom amid Hong Kong's rapidly deteriorating media landscape. With his trial nearing its conclusion, the international community must urgently act to secure the immediate release of Lai and six other Apple Daily staff members.' Sebastien Lai said his father was being treated inhumanely in prison but he remained 'defiant and strong'. The son had written to Keir Starmer earlier this year seeking a meeting with the prime minister to discuss his father's condition. 'It is ridiculous that in his display of bravery, the prime minister will not meet with me,' he told The Independent. He said Donald Trump 's presidency had given him a lot of hope about his father's release. 'But at the end of the day, it is a joint effort,' he said, urging Sir Keir to do more to help free his father. Mr Trump claimed last year that he would '100 per cent' get Lai out of jail.
Reuters
30 minutes ago
- Reuters
India's Nykaa posts two-fold rise in quarterly profit on beauty products demand
Aug 12 (Reuters) - FSN E-Commerce Ventures, the parent of Indian beauty products retailer Nykaa, posted a quarterly profit on Tuesday that more than doubled, benefiting from new brand tie-ups and steady demand for makeup and skincare. The company, which retails an array of brands such as Estee Lauder (EL.N), opens new tab and actor Katrina Kaif's Kay Beauty both online and offline, said profit rose to 233.2 million rupees ($2.66 million) for the first quarter ended June 30, from 96.4 million rupees a year ago. Indians, especially the affluent, have not shied away from spending on skincare and cosmetics — a category that outperforms others even during a consumption slowdown — helping prop up the $28-billion beauty and personal care industry in India. Nykaa added brands such as luxury offering Chanel, Korean skincare label Aestura and sunscreen maker Supergoop to its product line-up, lifting revenue in its beauty business 24% to 19.75 billion rupees. The growth was driven by a focus on reaching more customers across online and offline stores and offering higher-end products, Nykaa said. That, coupled with a 15% rise in its fashion business, which sells apparel and accessories from brands such as Victoria's Secret and Titan's ( opens new tab Mia, pushed overall revenue up 23% at 21.55 billion rupees. ($1 = 87.7080 Indian rupees)
