logo
Bank of Japan may offer less gloomy view of US tariff hit in report, sources say

Bank of Japan may offer less gloomy view of US tariff hit in report, sources say

Reuters18-07-2025
TOKYO, July 18 (Reuters) - The Bank of Japan will warn of uncertainty over the impact of U.S. tariffs in a quarterly report due this month, but may offer a less gloomy view on the near-term hit to Japan's economy than three months ago, said three sources familiar with its thinking.
With the BOJ set to keep interest rates steady at 0.5% at its July 30-31 meeting, markets are focusing on how it will describe the growth and price outlook in a quarterly report due after the meeting. They are seeking clues on the timing of the next rate hike.
In the upcoming report, the BOJ is likely to maintain its warning that uncertainty over the economic impact of U.S. tariffs remains very high, the sources, who declined to be identified, said.
But the report may also reflect signs of resilience in U.S. and Chinese economies, as well as recent domestic data showing output and capital expenditure holding up, the sources said.
"While the impact of tariffs will likely intensify, it's not showing up much in data so far," a factor that may affect the tone of BOJ's upcoming report, one of the sources said.
"The BOJ must remain on high alert over risks from tariffs. But it also shouldn't be overly pessimistic either," another source said, a view echoed by a third source.
The last report was compiled at the BOJ's previous rate review on April 30-May 1, when investors' pessimism was at its peak with markets still volatile after President Donald Trump's announcement of sweeping "reciprocal" tariffs.
That report warns that uncertainty over U.S. tariffs will hit Japan's economy through various channels including by slowing global demand, weakening exports and souring business sentiment.
But data released since then has not shown any clear evidence of damage from U.S. tariffs, or Japan's stalled trade talks with Washington, at least for now.
The BOJ's "tankan" quarterly survey, released on April 1, showed business sentiment holding up. The bank's regional branch managers also gave a fairly sanguine view on the immediate hit from U.S. tariffs.
Such data may be reflected in the next report's language on the economic outlook and risks, as well as in the board's growth projections, the sources said.
In the last report, the BOJ expected the economy to grow 0.5% in fiscal 2025, 0.7% in 2026 and 1.0% in 2027.
The BOJ is likely to maintain its view that inflation will durably hit its 2% target in the latter half of its three-year projection period running through fiscal 2027, the sources said.
Domestic prices, on the other hand, have been moving higher than expected as steady rises in food costs keep consumer inflation well above the BOJ's 2% target, the sources said.
Some BOJ policymakers, such as hawkish board member Naoki Tamura, have warned of second-round effects from such cost-push price pressure, which may push up underlying inflation in a way that warrants resuming rate hikes.
Sources have told Reuters the BOJ will consider revising up its inflation forecast for the current fiscal year reflecting persistent rises in rice and broader food costs.
Orange background

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Comments

No comments yet...

Related Articles

European leaders are disrupting Trump's golfing holiday at their peril
European leaders are disrupting Trump's golfing holiday at their peril

Telegraph

timean hour ago

  • Telegraph

European leaders are disrupting Trump's golfing holiday at their peril

When president Donald Trump stepped off Air Force One on to Scottish soil, he had one thing on his mind. 'There's no place like Turnberry,' he told his travelling press pool beneath the wing of his presidential jet. His Ayrshire golf course, he continued, was 'the best … probably the best course in the world'. Minutes later, he climbed into the Beast – his armoured limousine - to travel 35 minutes along country lanes and through Scottish villages, lined with supporters, protesters, and the merely curious, to Turnberry. Mr Trump may be determined to have a break, but European leaders have other ideas. Willingly or otherwise, Mr Trump faces a string of meetings in the coming days as the Continent's power brokers sit down with the unpredictable president. For now, though, he is secure inside a ring of steel. The historic course, home to some of the most exciting Opens in history, has been locked down. It now sits inside an eight-foot fence, its fairways dotted with burly men in dark suits and earpieces. Snipers watch over the course from a watch tower. Police officers – some on quad bikes – patrol the famous course and the dunes that flank it. Mr Trump arrived with his golf clubs for four days at his two Scottish courses but without some of the trappings of a travelling American president. He travelled with a stripped-down retinue of aides. There was no chief of staff, director of communications, secretary of state or other cabinet ministers, who might be expected on an important foreign trip. His public weekend schedule showed no planned events. Instead, it was a chance to spend time at his golf course with his sons Eric, who manages the family businesses, and Don Jr. Officials insisted that this was a 'working trip' including a meeting with Sir Keir Starmer on Monday, although they were vague on agenda items. Yet all that changed shortly before Mr Trump flew out of Washington, when Ursula von der Leyen, European Commission president, announced on X that she would be meeting Mr Trump on Sunday as she closes in on a trade deal: Following a good call with @POTUS, we have agreed to meet in Scotland on Sunday to discuss transatlantic trade relations, and how we can keep them strong. — Ursula von der Leyen (@vonderleyen) July 25, 2025 EU members have drawn up a retaliatory hit list. The plan is to impose 30pc tariffs on bourbon whisky, yachts, soybeans and other American products if a deal cannot be reached by August 1 to lift US levies. Mrs von der Leyen had better tread carefully. A diplomat who has prepared ministers for meetings with Mr Trump said she was playing a high-risk game. 'Very dangerous,' they said. Mr Trump's chat with reporters at Glasgow Prestwick Airport showed a president relaxed and looking forward to four days of golf, but one who was quick to bristle when it came to policy and politics. Mr Trump left Washington bugged by the drip, drip, drip of headlines about his relationship with Jeffrey Epstein, the billionaire paedophile who took his own life in a jail cell six years ago. He flashed irritation and lobbed sharp words at reporters who asked him how much he knew about the case on Friday, but relaxed as soon as he could talk about the love of his life: golf and the course at Turnberry. 'Sean Connery helped get me the permits,' he claimed after landing. 'If it weren't for Sean Connery, we wouldn't have those great courses.' There is a lesson for European leaders looking to muscle in on his tee times with their trade demands or for John Swinney, the Scottish First Minister, who is likely to tell Mr Trump that his tariffs are hurting the Scotch whisky industry. When the chat with reporters turned from golf to more substantial matters, he said he had a simple message for Europe. 'On immigration, you better get your act together,' he said in another flash of passion. 'You're not going to have Europe anymore... This immigration is killing Europe.' Anyone meeting with Mr Trump will remember the lessons of Volodymyr Zelensky's Oval Office row. The Ukrainian president was roundly chastised by Mr Trump and his vice president for daring to push back on the US position. And by hosting leaders at his Turnberry and Aberdeenshire courses, Mr Trump retains home advantage even while on foreign soil. Sir Keir may have got the memo. Mr Trump billed their meeting as little more than a chance to celebrate their recent trade deal. Although the Prime Minister does run the risk of upsetting Mr Trump over plans to raise the plight of civilians in Gaza, British officials played down the chances of any major diplomatic announcements. 'It's not like other meetings where we would go in with deliverables we planned to announce,' he said. On Saturday, all that was far from Mr Trump's mind. He spent the day golfing with son Eric, and his ambassador to London. The sound of Billy Joel's 'Uptown Girl' and 'Memories' from the musical Cats drifted out from the dunes on Saturday morning as Mr Trump's motorcade of golf buggies arrived at the fourth hole. Photographers huddled on a mound in the dunes, hoping to get a shot of the president on the course. Mr Trump, wearing a white USA cap and dressed in black, waved at the mound before teeing off in the direction of Turnberry lighthouse. Cheers from his baseball-cap-wearing entourage could be heard above the din of the speakers as the group wasted little time in rattling off their drives. A photographer camped in the dunes with a long lens later claimed to have witnessed the president cheat on the third fairway. He said Mr Trump had been handed a ball by a caddy, which he then dropped to the floor and pushed forward a little with an iron before taking a swing. The golf course has been surrounded by an eight-foot-high metal fence, while dozens of officers patrolled the entrances to the beach from Turnberry all the way down to Maidens, the next town along the coast. A temporary watchtower had been erected to monitor the Turnberry perimeter with a sniper rifle trained on the course below. A drone scanned from above, and police boats patrolled the coastal waters. Asked whether there would be a repeat of protesters taking to the beach in front of the golf club, an officer said the incident in 2018 had likely convinced the authorities to close off the entire beach to the public. Fears that the visit would be a magnet for protesters appeared unfounded. Matt Halliday, from Stranraer, said he had been driving around for two hours trying and failing to find protests to join. He said Mr Trump had 'stamped all over Scotland' with his grand golf resort plans, strong-arming local farmers and 'bullying' the council over wind farm plans. One of his signs bore a picture of the president with disgraced financier Jeffrey Epstein. 'I think it is going to bring him down,' he said. However, supporters were easier to find than protesters. Two wearing red 'Make England Great Again' hats arrived shortly after the president had disappeared over the crest of a dune. 'We love Trump,' said Kay English, 37, wearing a face mask sporting the president's face. Tom English, a 38-year-old driver, said the pair had driven up from Liverpool last night to catch a glimpse of the president. 'We support Maga, Trump and what he is doing,' he told reporters, adding: 'I like the way he is, the way he speaks. It is comedy gold. 'He is putting the people first. He is trying to help the whole world to make peace - he is the president of peace.' Mr English said he would return on Sunday and hopefully get within 'shouting distance' to offer words of encouragement to the president and cheer on his cost-cutting Doge unit. He added: 'We love Doge, we are trying to get that here through Reform. There is so much being wasted.' Mr Trump has long blurred the line between family, business and public life. But any world leader intruding on his golfing getaway had better be ready for a possible sharp response.

Matcha craze sparks global supply chain issues amid huge demand and record-breaking heatwave
Matcha craze sparks global supply chain issues amid huge demand and record-breaking heatwave

The Independent

time2 hours ago

  • The Independent

Matcha craze sparks global supply chain issues amid huge demand and record-breaking heatwave

Record temperatures and an increasing global demand has stretched Japan 's supply of matcha this year, leading prices to rocket. Farmers and industry officials have spoken out as they struggle to meet the ever-increasing demand for the bright green tea drink from Japan, which has peaked in popularity this year. Matcha's popularity has been growing over recent years, with sales soaring by 202 percent in the UK in 2023 alone according to Orion Market Research. The antioxidant rich beverage has reached its apex this year, driven by social media and Japan's post-pandemic tourism boom. The Kyoto region, which accounts for a quarter of Japan's production of tencha - the stemmed leaves dried and ground into matcha - was hit by severe heatwaves last summer during Japan's hottest year on record, which led to weak yields in the recent April-May harvest. US-based tea importer Lauren Purvis told the BBC her customers were seeing what was once a month's supply run out in days: "Some cafes are even asking for a kilo a day. They're desperate to keep up," the Mizuba Tea Co. owner said. Masahiro Yoshida, a sixth-generation farmer, was only able to harvest 1.5 tons of tencha this year, down a quarter from his typical harvest of two tons. 'Last year's summer was so hot that it damaged the bushes, so we couldn't pluck as many tea leaves,' he told Reuters from his storefront in Uji, south of Kyoto. Traditionally, the tencha leaves are kept under shade for weeks while growing in order to develop the tea's 'umami' taste. The leaves are then harvested, dried and ground into powder using stone mills. Tealife founder Yuki Ishii told Reuters that it saw a ten-fold increase in demand for matcha from customers, despite the amount available from Japan declining. 'I'm basically always out of stock," he said. Japan produced 5,336 tons of tencha in 2024, nearly three times more than a decade before as more farmer's switch to the crop, according the Japanese Tea production Association. Despite this, the association expects lower matcha output this year. As well as surging demand and lesser tea crops this year, US tariffs on Japan have pushed up matcha prices. On Tuesday, Washington and Tokyo announced a trade deal which means there will be a 15 per cent import tax on Japanese products going into the US. The move has led matcha distributors to brace for the impact, with Ms Purvis saying orders surged by more than 70 per cent in early July ahead of a deadline for the two countries to reach a trade agreement. 'As Japanese tea is not grown in the US, there is no American industry under threat that tariffs need to protect,' she told the BBC. 'We hope there will be a realisation that specialty tea should be exempt.'

Five essential things to know before you board an Oceania Cruises' ship
Five essential things to know before you board an Oceania Cruises' ship

Telegraph

time2 hours ago

  • Telegraph

Five essential things to know before you board an Oceania Cruises' ship

Ever since its founding in 2002, Oceania has pitched itself as a premium foodie cruise line serving 'the finest cuisine at sea' – a tag line the company has trademarked. Backing up the claim, its ships have one chef for every 10 passengers and, because there's no point serving good food unless people eat it, there is no charge to dine in its speciality restaurants, unlike on other ships. The company originally chartered two small ships, Insignia and Regatta. Now it has eight vessels, including four larger new builds. The latest, Oceania Allura (1,200 passengers), launched in July 2025. Another new ship, Oceania Sonata, is due in 2027, with three sister ships to follow between 2029 and 2035. In recent years, Oceania has added 'leading destination line' and wellness to its attributes, along with excursions designed to connect passengers to places and cultures through history, food, yoga and 'go local' trips to quieter villages and places off the tourist trail in big cities. Since 2014, Oceania has been part of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings, parent of mass-market Norwegian Cruise Line and ultra-luxury Regent Seven Seas Cruises. 1. Where does Oceania cruise? Eight ships are enough to cover pretty much all corners of the world. Chances are wherever you want to go, Oceania can take you there, even if you want to go penguin-spotting in Antarctica. Staying with long-haul, Oceania has cruises in Asia, South America and through the Panama Canal, and island-hopping voyages in the Caribbean almost exclusively round-trip from Miami. Cruises in French Polynesia from Tahiti are among its best-selling cruises. Closer to home, cruises in the Mediterranean and Greek Isles in the summer and autumn visit popular places including Barcelona, Dubrovnik, Santorini and Rhodes. However, Oceania's ships are small enough (they hold 670-1,250 passengers), to call into lesser-known ports inaccessible to large vessels. Canakkale in Turkey, the gateway to Gallipoli and Troy, is one such; Olbia in Sardinia – where food, wine and 4x4 adventures are among excursions – is another. In the Baltic, with calls into St Petersburg no longer an option, Oceania has found new places for passengers to explore, including Kotka in Finland and Liepaja in Latvia, the former offering nature walks and rafting, the latter known for its art nouveau heritage and the world's largest mechanical organ. For those who prefer not to fly, five cruises from Southampton in 2026 either circumnavigate the UK and Ireland, explore Scandinavia or combine the two. Durations range from seven nights to a month or more and often include overnights in A-list cities such as Istanbul, Buenos Aires and Rio de Janeiro. There are 180-day world voyages each January. In 2027 passengers will depart Miami for Southampton, and there's an option to sail on to New York, extending the cruise by 64 days. 2. Who does Oceania Cruises appeal to? A typical Oceania cruiser is a well-travelled, well-off American, aged 65 or over who likes smaller ships, enjoys the refined but not dressy atmosphere on board and wants to see the world in comfort without paying top dollar for an all-inclusive and more spacious ultra-luxury cruise line. Oceania pitches itself as a luxury line with fares that cover tips, Wi-Fi and soft drinks as well as dining in speciality restaurants. Alcohol and excursions cost extra, likewise flights and transfers. While the majority of Oceania passengers are from North America, the brand counts plenty of British and Australians of a similar age and social profile among its fan base. Families are welcome, but you are more likely to see older multi-generational groups, as there is no child care or entertainment for children. Wherever they're from, passengers will likely have an appreciation for good food. Those who are really keen can improve their skills in culinary centres on the four new ships and sign up for food-themed excursions, such as shopping with a chef or cookery lessons with locals. Passengers also enjoy Oceania's longer cruises. As proof, all cabins and suites on the 180-day world cruise in January 2026 are already wait-listed. 3. Oceania Cruises' fleet Regatta-class Oceania Insignia, Oceania Nautica, Oceania Regatta, Oceania Sirena (670 passengers) Built 25 or more years ago, these are the old ladies of the fleet, but plenty of Oceania cruisers prefer them for their more intimate size. They've been spruced up over the years but they are not as luxurious as their newer fleet mates, and cabins and suites are quite compact, although many have balconies. Expect two speciality restaurants – the Asian-inspired Red Ginger and Tuscan Steak on Sirena; Toscana and Polo Grill on the others – in addition to the grand dining room and buffet, and an alfresco grill by a small pool. Sails to: Mediterranean, Northern Europe, Asia, Caribbean, Mexico, South America, Panama Canal, Canada and New England, Australia and New Zealand, the South Pacific and Africa Oceania-class ships Oceania Marina and Oceania Riviera (1,250 passengers) Oceania went larger with its first new vessels, almost doubling the size of its Regatta ships, so it could add two more restaurants – the French Jacques and Asian-inspired Red Ginger – as well as the first cookery schools at sea. Three butler-served Owner's Suites span the width of the ships and are furnished in Ralph Lauren Home. A Lalique staircase dazzles in each atrium; elsewhere expect an elegant, conservative look. Allura-class ships Oceania Vista and Oceania Allura (1,200 passengers) Oceania fans had to wait 10 years after Riviera for another new ship, with Vista launching in 2023 and Allura following in 2025. They are slightly smaller but the layout is similar and the look much brighter. Notably there's a larger culinary centre and a new restaurant, Aquamar, serving healthier food but only for breakfast and lunch. French restaurant Jacques makes a comeback on Allura (it will be added to Vista in October 2025). Sails to: Mediterranean, Northern Europe, British Isles, Caribbean, Mexico, South America, Panama Canal, Asia, Canada/New England, world cruises 4. Loyalty scheme Cruisers become members of the Oceania Club after their first sailing and then work their way up through seven levels, earning everything from bottles of wine and on-board credit to free drinks packages and even free cruises. 5. Access for guests with disabilities All ships have wheelchair-accessible cabins and lifts to all decks, except a half portion of deck at the very top, and front of the ships.

DOWNLOAD THE APP

Get Started Now: Download the App

Ready to dive into a world of global content with local flavor? Download Daily8 app today from your preferred app store and start exploring.
app-storeplay-store