Rupee jumps most in a month as Iran-Israel ceasefire sparks relief rally
The Indian rupee had its best day in a month on Tuesday as oil prices slumped, the dollar weakened and Asian currencies rallied after a ceasefire between Israel and Iran went into effect, reviving risk sentiment.
ADVERTISEMENT The rupee closed at 85.9750 against the U.S. dollar, up 0.9% on the day, its biggest single-day rise since May 23.
Oil prices dropped after the ceasefire was announced by U.S. President Donald Trump overnight, bringing relief to currencies of oil-importing countries like India.
Brent crude futures were at $69 per barrel, down more than 15% from a five-month high hit a day earlier. Broad-based interbank dollar sales and cutting of bearish bets on the rupee boosted the local currency, traders said. India's benchmark equity indexes, the BSE Sensex and Nifty 50, ended higher, but pared gains after Israel said that Iran had violated the ceasefire.
ADVERTISEMENT Iran denied reports of violations but the developments raised doubts over whether the ceasefire, which came after 12 days of war, would last.
"Markets are materially scaling back geopolitical risk," ING said in a Tuesday note. The dollar is under pressure as oil prices fall and the downside risks are elevated ahead of remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, it said.
ADVERTISEMENT Powell is slated to speak in front of U.S. lawmakers on Tuesday and Wednesday. The dollar index was down 0.2% at 98. Fed vice-chair Michelle Bowman said on Monday that the first interest rate cut this year could come as soon as July, helping boost odds of a rate cut to 22.7% from 16.3% last week, as per CME's FedWatch tool.
ADVERTISEMENT Asian currencies were up between 0.1% and 1.7% on the day and global stocks rallied with U.S. equity futures indicating that stocks would open in the green.
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