Severe storms, flash flooding to bring July Fourth holiday travel hassles
While there were only a few dozen severe weather reports scattered over the lower 48 states Monday, there was a high concentration in the mid-Atlantic, along with flash flooding. Part of this same area will once again face the threat of both hazards from Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening.
The likelihood of severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts, frequent lightning strikes and flash flooding will extend from the Carolinas to upstate New York and northern New England.
Much of the Interstate 81 and 95 corridors will be in the thick of the storms and potential disruptions. Airline delays may mount in the afternoon and evening as storms erupt and approach the major hubs from Boston and New York City to Philadelphia, Washington, D.C., and Charlotte.
Locations recently deluged by downpours may be more prone to flash flooding. However, any area within the Northeast and mid-Atlantic can experience torrential rainfall and rapidly rising water on streets, highways and along small streams over the countryside.
A greater concentration of storms packing damaging winds and hail will extend from eastern Virginia to southeastern Pennsylvania and southern New Jersey into Tuesday evening.
On Wednesday, the same mechanism for producing severe weather from Tuesday will linger along the southern Atlantic coast. Multiple heavy-duty thunderstorms packing torrential downpours and gusty winds can still occur from southern New Jersey to northern Florida. Localized flash flooding is likely, including along portions of the busy I-95 corridor.
Farther west, a new round of severe weather is forecast to erupt over the Upper Midwest Wednesday. The activity will develop as a cool front with lower humidity begins to move southeastward from south-central Canada.Have the app? Unlock AccuWeather Alerts™ with Premium+
The greatest risk of severe thunderstorms will extend from northern and central Wisconsin to northern Michigan and part of central Ontario. Because the air will be somewhat drier in this region, compared to the steamy Atlantic Seaboard, the greatest threats from the storms around the Great Lakes will be from moderate hail and strong wind gusts.
Severe weather will likely revisit the Northeast Thursday.
Since humidity levels will be somewhat lower in the region, when compared to Monday and Tuesday, there will be less risk of flash flooding. Similar to the risk from the Great Lakes Wednesday, the same front can set off storms packing moderate hail and strong wind gusts capable of breaking tree limbs, toss loose items around in the neighborhoods and lead to localized power outages.
The risk of severe weather Thursday afternoon and evening will extend into parts of southeastern Ontario, southern Quebec and New Brunswick, Canada.
Once again, the atmosphere will also reload farther to the west Friday.
The most likely corridor of severe weather on July Fourth would extend from north-central Kansas to the eastern part of the Dakotas, much of Minnesota, northwestern Wisconsin and the western part of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Some severe storms will extend into southeastern Manitoba and northwestern Ontario.
The storms Friday will pack a significant risk of damaging hail and wind gusts, as well as flash flooding.
Another trouble spot for thunderstorms will exist over the interior Southwest as the week progresses, as the North American monsoon ramps up.
The annual flip of the winds from the west to the south brings more humid, sometimes tropical air into the Southwest. Once it begins, the moisture boost leads to locally gusty, drenching thunderstorms on a nearly daily basis through most of the summer.
The greatest threats will be sudden dust storms that may precede downpours, as well as localized flash flooding where heavy rain falls. Flash flooding can occur from storms miles away as water rushes down through normally dry streambeds, called arroyos and washes.
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"Development may be a bit more likely on the Gulf side, as opposed to the Atlantic side of Florida, but at this point the entire zone is being watched," DaSilva said, "At this time we feel the development window is from around July 4 to early next week." "A frontal boundary is expected to stall and weaken off the southeast U.S. coast late this week," the National Hurricane Center said at 2 p.m. "An area of low pressure could develop from the weakening front by the weekend over the Atlantic waters off the southeast U.S., over Florida, or over the eastern Gulf. "Some gradual tropical or subtropical development could occur thereafter as the low drifts and moves little. "Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible across portions of the southeast U.S., particularly across the west-central Florida coast." Formation chance through 48 hours: low, near 0 percent. Formation chance through 7 days: low, 30 percent. 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