Lebanon: Is Hezbollah too weak to come to Iran's aid? – DW – 06/13/2025

DW

13-06-2025

The Tehran-backed group remains remarkably restrained following the Israeli strikes on Iran. Is Hezbollah too weak to attack or is the group busy rearming?
Following Israel's attack on Iran, tensions across the Middle East are at an all-year-high.
Yet, Hezbollah, once Iran's best equipped and biggest militia group in the region, issued a statement only hours after the attack. The group condemned Israel's attack and sent condolences to Tehran for those who got killed. But Hezbollah did not offer to join in the retaliation — even though, being based in Lebanon, they have a direct border with Israel.
"The previous rule was that when Iran is attacked on its territory, it retaliates from its territory," Heiko Wimmen, Project Director of Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon at the International Crisis Group, told DW. However, he wouldn't rule out that these "rulebooks have changed."
"Hezbollah could be waiting for a clear call to action from Iran," Wimmen said.
Ronnie Chatah, a Beirut-based political analyst and host of The Beirut Banyan podcast, told DW that "Iran cannot easily retaliate from Lebanon today as a result of Hezbollah's major losses during last year's war with Israel."
Iran's "'crown jewel' may no longer serve as it was built and honed to function: a front line of external defense for Tehran," he added.
Yet, he still sees that in "terms of general trends in the region and how Hezbollah reacts, it is safe to conclude that even in its withered state, Hezbollah remains a reflection of Iran's security concerns."
Israel's strikes on Iran's main enrichment facility and the country's ballistic missile program took place two days ahead of the sixth round of US-Iran negotiations over a new nuclear deal in Oman. It now remains to be seen whether that meeting will still take place.
However, hopes for a new agreement were somewhat dashed even before Israel's attack on Iran. Earlier this week, a senior Iranian official already told the news agency Reuters that Tehran would not abandon its right to enrich uranium. Also US President Donald Trump has lowered expectations for a new deal which could have eased tensions in the region.
Following Israel's strikes on Iran, it remains to be seen if Iran and the US will continue their nuclear talks in Oman on Sunday Image: Vahid Salemi/AP/dpa/picture alliance
Is Hezbollah too weak or too busy?
"Another reason for Hezbollah's radio silence is that they could have decided to prioritize internal restructuring," Heiko Wimmen said. This would include appointing a new leadership and focusing on local arms production in order to become more independent from Iranian supplies.
"Also, nobody really knows for sure what happened to those strategic missiles that Hezbollah supposedly had but never really used against Israel in last year's war," Wimmen added.
In November 2024, a ceasefire ended 11 months of skirmishes and two months of a full-scale war that was triggered by Hezbollah, whose military wing is classified as terrorist organization by the US, Germany and several Arab states. Over time, Israel killed most of Hezbollah's leadership and destroyed large parts of the group's infrastructure, as well as Lebanon's south and large parts of Beirut. Also, some 4,000 people were killed.
Despite the ceasefire, Israel has been frequently attacking sites it says are connected with Hezbollah. Last week, Israel's military carried out intense strikes on a suburb of Beirut where Hezbollah holds sway. The Israeli military said that it targeted Hezbollah's underground drone factories. Hezbollah officials denied the existence of such facilities.
Still, the most recent report by the Institute for the Study of War, states that "Hezbollah likely seeks to prioritize domestic drone production after recent setbacks that have complicated its ability to procure and smuggle Iranian weapons into Lebanon."
While this is in line with Hezbollah's previous role as well-equipped and much larger armed group than for example Lebanon's national army, it goes against international calls for Hezbollah's disarmament and growing pressure on Hezbollah even from within Lebanon.
However, Hezbollah officials have repeatedly said that they would not give up arms until Israel stopped its airstrikes and withdrew from five points it is still occupying along the border in southern Lebanon. Israel though said it would not stop targeting Hezbollah as long as they posed a threat.
Some 7 months after the ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel, the Israeli military targeted a suburb of Beirut in what they said was to dismantle a drone manufacturing place Image: AFP/Getty Images
Growing pressure on Hezbollah
Meanwhile, Lebanon's government has also stepped up efforts to contain Hezbollah. Earlier this month, Lebanon's Minister Nawaf Salam said in a televised address marking 100 days in office that the Lebanese army had dismantled "more than 500 military positions and arms depots" belonging to Hezbollah in the south of the country.
"The state continues its action... to restore its authority over the entire national territory... and to have a monopoly on arms," Salam said.
"The conversation is very different from the last civil war of the 2000s, where Hezbollah emerged as the key party that delivered reconstruction and economic support for the people, thus garnering political support," Kelly Petillo, Middle East researcher at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told DW upon her return from Beirut earlier this week.
"Now, the conversation is about disarmament at the national level," she said, adding that "at a local level the conversation is about who's going to lift us from hardship and the aftermath of a terrible war."
Meanwhile, posters of Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah's former leader who was killed in September 2024 during an Israeli strike on Hezbollah's headquarters in Beirut, are still lining major streets in the city.
"Flags and posters with Nasrallah and other Hezbollah leaders still hang, but they hang on destroyed buildings along worn down streets," Petillo says.
"It can't be denied that Hezbollah has become weak," she told DW, adding that "the flags are still there and even though they are covered in dust and rubble it also means that Hezbollah will not disappear anytime soon."
Edited by: Andreas Illmer
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