‘85% Is Better than 0%' for Nvidia, Says Top Analyst After Trump's 15% Demand
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Last month, the U.S. cleared Nvidia to resume selling its export-compliant H20 chips to China, which Trump called 'obsolete.' Nvidia has initial licenses and may restart shipments soon. The White House maintains that these chips do not pose any national security threat.
Rasgon Sees Upside Despite 15% Revenue Share
Rasgon fears that imposing strict export restrictions on AI chips could push China's domestic chipmakers, such as Huawei, to accelerate their own development, eventually becoming more powerful. Rasgon noted that the 15% cut would result in 'a few billion dollars' for the U.S. government, and roughly 1% to 2% of Nvidia's annual revenue. For Fiscal 2026, the consensus estimate for Nvidia's revenue is pegged at $202 billion.
Rasgon maintained his 'Buy' rating on NVDA stock, with a price target of $185, implying 1.6% upside potential from current levels. He is a five-star analyst on TipRanks, ranking #209 out of the 9,946 analysts tracked. Rasgon boasts a 64% success rate and an average return per rating of 24.20%.
A Tightrope Between Business and National Interest
While regaining access to China's large tech market is good news for Nvidia, critics warn that even downgraded chips could still boost China's AI and military capabilities. The U.S. wants to maintain its dominance in the global AI race, but Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has previously argued that American companies should be allowed to sell their technology in China.
Trump has been clear that any Blackwell chips sold to China must have their computing power reduced by 30% to 50%. This will ensure that China does not get access to the most advanced technology. It remains unclear whether Nvidia has already built this reduced-performance version of its flagship Blackwell GPUs (graphics processing units). Trump added that Huang will visit him again with an 'unenhanced version of the big one,' referring to the modified Blackwell chips.
Is NVDA Stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell?
On TipRanks, NVDA stock has a Strong Buy consensus rating based on 35 Buys, three Holds, and one Sell rating. The average Nvidia price target of $187.57 implies 3% upside potential from current levels. Year-to-date, NVDA stock has gained 35.6%.
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