Aussie dollar climbs to 9-month high
Australia's dollar jumped to a nine month high of 66.24 US cents on Friday, before slipping to 65.63 cents during Monday's trading.
But in its latest trading note, the Commonwealth Bank says the Australian dollar surge could continue this week, as the US continues to announce trading deals following a temporary pause in its tariffs.
'AUD/USD will likely extend its gains this week if US trade developments are perceived to be positive and risk sentiment improves and more trade deals can be announced ahead of the 1 August deadline,' CBA wrote. The Aussie dollar has bit a new high for the year as Donald Trump announces new trade deals. NewsWire / Nicholas Eagar Credit: NewsWire
The big four bank estimates the global effective tariff rate will stand around 20 per cent from August 1.
'The US may announce more trade deals this week ahead of the 1 August deadline and/or an extension to the US-China trade truce, supporting risk sentiment,' CBA wrote.
IG market analyst Tony Sycamore highlights positive headlines out of the US that could help the Australian dollar.
'Whether the AUD/USD can extend those gains will likely depend on fresh tariff headlines, and inflation and jobs data in the US,' he said.
The US and China will meet in Stockholm on Monday, aimed at tackling longstanding economic disputes between the two countries.
The meeting in Sweden, led by US treasury secretary Scott Bessent and China vice premier He Lifeng, comes after the previous 90 day pause on tariffs in June.
In June both countries announced more than 100 per cent tariffs on each other in a tit-for-tat escalation between world's two largest economies.
This truce will end on August 12, and a failure to reach an agreement will send global supply chains into turmoil as both countries face tariffs of more than 100 per cent. RBA governor Michele Bullock explained why the central bank held rates in July. Photo: NewsWire/ Gaye Gerard Credit: News Corp Australia
Domestically a higher than expected inflation number could also see the Australian dollar jump.
On Wednesday the Australian Bureau of Statistics will announce the CPI reading for the second quarter of this year, with any rise above 0.6 per cent for the quarter putting future rate cuts in doubt.
The March quarter inflation figure was 2.4 per cent.
NED-9108-Monthly-Inflation-Indicator
AMP chief economist Shane Oliver said a lot of future rate cuts will come down to the CPI print.
'If the CPI is in line or just a little bit higher than the RBA forecast of 2.6 per cent rise in the trimmed mean for the year until June 30 then I think we will get a rate cut,' he said.
'But if it is 2.9 or even 2.8 then the RBA board might think lets wait a little longer.'
Mr Sycamore told NewsWire the Aussie dollar won't run until later in the week, on the back of CPI data in Australia and jobs data out of the US on Friday.
'If there is a 4.3 per cent print, it gives the Aussie dollar the green light to push towards the mid 66s,' he said.
At the July RBA monetary board meeting, the central bank shocked markets by holding the official cash rate at 3.85 per cent on the back of monthly inflation and jobs figures being stronger than expected.
At the time governor Michele Bullock said the central bank could wait for the June quarterly figures to be released.
'Recent monthly CPI indicator data – which can be volatile and does not cover all items in the CPI – were broadly consistent with this expectation,' the RBA board said.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
The Advertiser
2 hours ago
- The Advertiser
India will continue to buy Russian oil, officials say
India will keep purchasing oil from Russia despite US President Donald Trump's threats of penalties, two Indian government sources say, not wishing to be identified due to the sensitivity of the matter. "These are long-term oil contracts," one of the sources said. "It is not so simple to just stop buying overnight." Trump indicated in a Truth Social post in July that India would face additional penalties for purchases of Russian arms and oil. On Friday, Trump told reporters that he had heard India would no longer be buying oil from Russia. The New York Times on Saturday quoted two unnamed senior Indian officials as saying there had been no change in Indian government policy, with one official saying the government had "not given any direction to oil companies" to cut back imports from Russia. Reuters reported this week that Indian state refiners stopped buying Russian oil in the past week after discounts narrowed in July. "On our energy sourcing requirements ... we look at what is there available in the markets, what is there on offer, and also what is the prevailing global situation or circumstances," India's foreign ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal told reporters during a regular briefing on Friday. Jaiswal said India had a "steady and time-tested partnership" with Russia, and that New Delhi's relations with various countries stood on their merit and should not be viewed from the prism of a third country. The White House did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Indian refiners are pulling back from Russian crude as discounts shrink to their lowest since 2022, when Western sanctions were first imposed on Moscow, due to lower Russian exports and steady demand, sources said earlier this week. The country's state refiners - Indian Oil Corp, Hindustan Petroleum Corp, Bharat Petroleum Corp and Mangalore Refinery Petrochemical Ltd - have not sought Russian crude in the past week or so, four sources familiar with the refiners' purchase plans told Reuters. On July 14, Trump threatened 100 per cent tariffs on countries that buy Russian oil unless Moscow reaches a major peace deal with Ukraine. Russia is the top supplier to India, responsible for about 35 per cent of India's overall supplies. Russia continued to be the top oil supplier to India during the first six months of 2025, accounting for about 35 per cent of India's overall supplies, followed by Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. India, the world's third-largest oil importer and consumer, received about 1.75 million barrels per day of Russian oil in January-June this year, up one per cent from a year ago, according to data provided to Reuters by sources. Nayara Energy, a major buyer of Russian oil, was recently sanctioned by the European Union as the refinery is majority-owned by Russian entities, including oil major Rosneft. In July, Reuters reported that Nayara's chief executive had resigned after the imposition of EU sanctions and company veteran Sergey Denisov had been appointed as CEO. Three vessels laden with oil products from Nayara Energy have yet to discharge their cargoes, hindered by the new EU sanctions on the Russia-backed refiner, Reuters reported in July. India will keep purchasing oil from Russia despite US President Donald Trump's threats of penalties, two Indian government sources say, not wishing to be identified due to the sensitivity of the matter. "These are long-term oil contracts," one of the sources said. "It is not so simple to just stop buying overnight." Trump indicated in a Truth Social post in July that India would face additional penalties for purchases of Russian arms and oil. On Friday, Trump told reporters that he had heard India would no longer be buying oil from Russia. The New York Times on Saturday quoted two unnamed senior Indian officials as saying there had been no change in Indian government policy, with one official saying the government had "not given any direction to oil companies" to cut back imports from Russia. Reuters reported this week that Indian state refiners stopped buying Russian oil in the past week after discounts narrowed in July. "On our energy sourcing requirements ... we look at what is there available in the markets, what is there on offer, and also what is the prevailing global situation or circumstances," India's foreign ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal told reporters during a regular briefing on Friday. Jaiswal said India had a "steady and time-tested partnership" with Russia, and that New Delhi's relations with various countries stood on their merit and should not be viewed from the prism of a third country. The White House did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Indian refiners are pulling back from Russian crude as discounts shrink to their lowest since 2022, when Western sanctions were first imposed on Moscow, due to lower Russian exports and steady demand, sources said earlier this week. The country's state refiners - Indian Oil Corp, Hindustan Petroleum Corp, Bharat Petroleum Corp and Mangalore Refinery Petrochemical Ltd - have not sought Russian crude in the past week or so, four sources familiar with the refiners' purchase plans told Reuters. On July 14, Trump threatened 100 per cent tariffs on countries that buy Russian oil unless Moscow reaches a major peace deal with Ukraine. Russia is the top supplier to India, responsible for about 35 per cent of India's overall supplies. Russia continued to be the top oil supplier to India during the first six months of 2025, accounting for about 35 per cent of India's overall supplies, followed by Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. India, the world's third-largest oil importer and consumer, received about 1.75 million barrels per day of Russian oil in January-June this year, up one per cent from a year ago, according to data provided to Reuters by sources. Nayara Energy, a major buyer of Russian oil, was recently sanctioned by the European Union as the refinery is majority-owned by Russian entities, including oil major Rosneft. In July, Reuters reported that Nayara's chief executive had resigned after the imposition of EU sanctions and company veteran Sergey Denisov had been appointed as CEO. Three vessels laden with oil products from Nayara Energy have yet to discharge their cargoes, hindered by the new EU sanctions on the Russia-backed refiner, Reuters reported in July. India will keep purchasing oil from Russia despite US President Donald Trump's threats of penalties, two Indian government sources say, not wishing to be identified due to the sensitivity of the matter. "These are long-term oil contracts," one of the sources said. "It is not so simple to just stop buying overnight." Trump indicated in a Truth Social post in July that India would face additional penalties for purchases of Russian arms and oil. On Friday, Trump told reporters that he had heard India would no longer be buying oil from Russia. The New York Times on Saturday quoted two unnamed senior Indian officials as saying there had been no change in Indian government policy, with one official saying the government had "not given any direction to oil companies" to cut back imports from Russia. Reuters reported this week that Indian state refiners stopped buying Russian oil in the past week after discounts narrowed in July. "On our energy sourcing requirements ... we look at what is there available in the markets, what is there on offer, and also what is the prevailing global situation or circumstances," India's foreign ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal told reporters during a regular briefing on Friday. Jaiswal said India had a "steady and time-tested partnership" with Russia, and that New Delhi's relations with various countries stood on their merit and should not be viewed from the prism of a third country. The White House did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Indian refiners are pulling back from Russian crude as discounts shrink to their lowest since 2022, when Western sanctions were first imposed on Moscow, due to lower Russian exports and steady demand, sources said earlier this week. The country's state refiners - Indian Oil Corp, Hindustan Petroleum Corp, Bharat Petroleum Corp and Mangalore Refinery Petrochemical Ltd - have not sought Russian crude in the past week or so, four sources familiar with the refiners' purchase plans told Reuters. On July 14, Trump threatened 100 per cent tariffs on countries that buy Russian oil unless Moscow reaches a major peace deal with Ukraine. Russia is the top supplier to India, responsible for about 35 per cent of India's overall supplies. Russia continued to be the top oil supplier to India during the first six months of 2025, accounting for about 35 per cent of India's overall supplies, followed by Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. India, the world's third-largest oil importer and consumer, received about 1.75 million barrels per day of Russian oil in January-June this year, up one per cent from a year ago, according to data provided to Reuters by sources. Nayara Energy, a major buyer of Russian oil, was recently sanctioned by the European Union as the refinery is majority-owned by Russian entities, including oil major Rosneft. In July, Reuters reported that Nayara's chief executive had resigned after the imposition of EU sanctions and company veteran Sergey Denisov had been appointed as CEO. Three vessels laden with oil products from Nayara Energy have yet to discharge their cargoes, hindered by the new EU sanctions on the Russia-backed refiner, Reuters reported in July. India will keep purchasing oil from Russia despite US President Donald Trump's threats of penalties, two Indian government sources say, not wishing to be identified due to the sensitivity of the matter. "These are long-term oil contracts," one of the sources said. "It is not so simple to just stop buying overnight." Trump indicated in a Truth Social post in July that India would face additional penalties for purchases of Russian arms and oil. On Friday, Trump told reporters that he had heard India would no longer be buying oil from Russia. The New York Times on Saturday quoted two unnamed senior Indian officials as saying there had been no change in Indian government policy, with one official saying the government had "not given any direction to oil companies" to cut back imports from Russia. Reuters reported this week that Indian state refiners stopped buying Russian oil in the past week after discounts narrowed in July. "On our energy sourcing requirements ... we look at what is there available in the markets, what is there on offer, and also what is the prevailing global situation or circumstances," India's foreign ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal told reporters during a regular briefing on Friday. Jaiswal said India had a "steady and time-tested partnership" with Russia, and that New Delhi's relations with various countries stood on their merit and should not be viewed from the prism of a third country. The White House did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Indian refiners are pulling back from Russian crude as discounts shrink to their lowest since 2022, when Western sanctions were first imposed on Moscow, due to lower Russian exports and steady demand, sources said earlier this week. The country's state refiners - Indian Oil Corp, Hindustan Petroleum Corp, Bharat Petroleum Corp and Mangalore Refinery Petrochemical Ltd - have not sought Russian crude in the past week or so, four sources familiar with the refiners' purchase plans told Reuters. On July 14, Trump threatened 100 per cent tariffs on countries that buy Russian oil unless Moscow reaches a major peace deal with Ukraine. Russia is the top supplier to India, responsible for about 35 per cent of India's overall supplies. Russia continued to be the top oil supplier to India during the first six months of 2025, accounting for about 35 per cent of India's overall supplies, followed by Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. India, the world's third-largest oil importer and consumer, received about 1.75 million barrels per day of Russian oil in January-June this year, up one per cent from a year ago, according to data provided to Reuters by sources. Nayara Energy, a major buyer of Russian oil, was recently sanctioned by the European Union as the refinery is majority-owned by Russian entities, including oil major Rosneft. In July, Reuters reported that Nayara's chief executive had resigned after the imposition of EU sanctions and company veteran Sergey Denisov had been appointed as CEO. Three vessels laden with oil products from Nayara Energy have yet to discharge their cargoes, hindered by the new EU sanctions on the Russia-backed refiner, Reuters reported in July.
Sydney Morning Herald
7 hours ago
- Sydney Morning Herald
Australians are working more hours, and it might be hurting our living standards
Australian workers could be putting in nearly half the hours they were 45 years ago but have instead tended to work longer hours to upgrade their lifestyles, sacrificing work-life balance for more income. Productivity Commission research economist Rusha Das found average working hours for Australians had shrunk only modestly from about 34 to 31 hours a week over the past few decades, while incomes had risen significantly. 'Overall, Australians have opted to use their [increased productivity] to upgrade their lifestyles, like buying fancier coffee and taking more expensive holidays, rather than shorten their workdays,' Das said in the commission's June bulletin. She noted that, with the growth in productivity since 1980, Australians could have instead worked an average of 15 hours less each week without lowering consumption levels. But given productivity – the amount of goods and services produced for a given level of resources, including hours worked – has stagnated over the past decade, Australians may be compensating by putting in more legwork. Federal Treasurer Jim Chalmers, who has said productivity is the primary focus of his second term in government, will host a roundtable this month in Canberra with representatives from industry, unions and government to find ways to lift the country's living standards. The Australian Manufacturing Workers' Union and the Australian Nursing and Midwifery Federation have called for shorter working hours and more annual leave in return for productivity gains ahead of the roundtable. AMWU national secretary Steve Murphy told The Australian that 'productivity can't be at the expense of the wellbeing of workers'. Cronulla real estate agent Domenico Santaguida, 24, works 7am to 6pm on weekdays and 7am to 5pm on Saturdays while fielding calls and questions from buyers and sellers around the clock.
The Age
7 hours ago
- The Age
Australians are working more hours, and it might be hurting our living standards
Australian workers could be putting in nearly half the hours they were 45 years ago but have instead tended to work longer hours to upgrade their lifestyles, sacrificing work-life balance for more income. Productivity Commission research economist Rusha Das found average working hours for Australians had shrunk only modestly from about 34 to 31 hours a week over the past few decades, while incomes had risen significantly. 'Overall, Australians have opted to use their [increased productivity] to upgrade their lifestyles, like buying fancier coffee and taking more expensive holidays, rather than shorten their workdays,' Das said in the commission's June bulletin. She noted that, with the growth in productivity since 1980, Australians could have instead worked an average of 15 hours less each week without lowering consumption levels. But given productivity – the amount of goods and services produced for a given level of resources, including hours worked – has stagnated over the past decade, Australians may be compensating by putting in more legwork. Federal Treasurer Jim Chalmers, who has said productivity is the primary focus of his second term in government, will host a roundtable this month in Canberra with representatives from industry, unions and government to find ways to lift the country's living standards. The Australian Manufacturing Workers' Union and the Australian Nursing and Midwifery Federation have called for shorter working hours and more annual leave in return for productivity gains ahead of the roundtable. AMWU national secretary Steve Murphy told The Australian that 'productivity can't be at the expense of the wellbeing of workers'. Cronulla real estate agent Domenico Santaguida, 24, works 7am to 6pm on weekdays and 7am to 5pm on Saturdays while fielding calls and questions from buyers and sellers around the clock.
