Nuclear option

Winnipeg Free Press

5 days ago

Opinion
The quest for more power to meet rising demand from electric vehicles and data centres running artificial intelligence technology has led to an apparent 'renaissance' of nuclear energy.
The White House recently posted an op-ed piece exalting U.S. President Donald Trump's executive orders for reinvigorating America's nuclear power generation using that just that term, while effusively lauding his agenda to increase the nation's output by 300 gigawatts by 2050.
That's enough to power about 300 million homes or, more likely, thousands of data centres for AI, as well as millions of EVs.
Climate change commitments may not be high on the U.S. president's mind, but it is on China's list, as it seeks to add as much as 400 GW more from atomic energy by 2050 while aiming to decarbonize its economy.
It's arguably off a faster start with 119 GW of nuclear power generation in construction or development. India is next in activity with 32 GW potentially under development. The United States is much further behind at eight GW, even trailing nations like France and Poland.
Actual activity and planned growth suggests trillions of dollars being invested in nuclear energy over the coming decades — and investors are intrigued.
'The ducks are coming in a row, finally,' says Scott Clayton, Toronto-based senior analyst for the Canadian Wealth Advisor with the TSI Network in Toronto.
The last time nuclear energy was on an upswing with investors was in the 2000s as oil prices surged. Then, the Fukushima plant disaster in Japan in 2011 put the brakes on nuclear power.
Companies like Cameco Corp. — based in Saskatoon and the world's largest uranium producer — saw growth put on ice.
That is until recently. Today, Cameco's share price, fuelled largely by all the talk of plans for new reactors, is at all-time highs.
Although Canada may be an oil and gas powerhouse, its potential as a supplier of the fuel for nuclear energy has arguably more upside. It has the third largest discovered reserves in the world. It is also the second-largest producer behind Kazakhstan and potentially much more production is coming, as exploration companies like NexGen Energy and Paladin Energy look to develop mines in the Athabasca Basin (home to the highest-grade deposits of uranium in the world).
Yet before jumping into a surging industry, driven by the future promise of much more nuclear power (not to mention the unnerving revival of the nuclear arms race), let's splash a bit of cold water on the overheating rods of speculation.
'It still faces challenges,' Clayton says.
Among them are regulatory concerns. Mining projects in Canada take a notoriously long time to be approved and uranium is particularly tricky, given its environmental impact.
Power plants are equally complicated. The public might appreciate the cheap, abundant power, just don't generate it close to where they live.
'The other problem is that the costs (of construction) are just astronomical,' Clayton says.
The newest nuclear power generating station in the U.S, for example — two reactors at Plant Vogtle in Georgia — cost US$35 billion and were behind schedule and over budget.
'We definitely think it's (nuclear energy) going to be needed,' says Andrew Bischof, senior equity analyst at Morningstar in Chicago.
Yet many projects are far from construction, let alone completion, and a history exists of projects being cancelled, especially in the U.S.
Bischof says many major utility companies are talking about amping up nuclear power, but those are far-away ambitions, part of five- and 10-year plans to build capacity, which could take several more years before that power is added to the grid.
There does seem to be more buzz around small modular reactors, he adds. These are scaled-down power plants that take less time to build, but it's an emerging technology.
To that end, Canada is a leader with a project underway in Darlington, Ont.
'Duke Energy has also mildly stated that it's exploring SMRs, but again, that is 2030 to 2035 for a time frame,' Bischof says about the U.S. power provider, which presently has six nuclear power plants in the U.S..
Notably, big tech — Microsoft, Meta and Alphabet (Google) — are considering or currently entering into contracts with power providers, providing cash up front to restart or build new nuclear capacity, often involving small reactors, to meet climate change goals and growing energy-hungry AI capabilities.
The need is substantial. AI is forecast to eat up 20 per cent of new energy growth through 2030. EV expansion is expected to increase demand by 15 per cent.
Whether all this growth translates into future profits remains to be seen.
In the meantime, investors might consider risk-adjusted exposure.
'If you're looking to invest in more speculative areas, it's best to get exposure through stocks that already have a solid business,' Clayton says. He points to U.S.-based Constellation Energy Corp. as one viable choice. Nearly 70 per cent of its output is nuclear and it pays a small dividend (0.47 per cent yield).
Another way to invest in this theme is exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Investors have close to a handful of choices. One of the longest running is VanEck Uranium and Nuclear ETF, launched in 2007. It has seen renewed popularity, after peaking in price around 2011.
'(Its) recent asset growth mirrors a broader nuclear renaissance fueled by surging electricity demand, the global pursuit of dependable low carbon power and fresh policy support extending plant life and financing next generation reactors,' says Brandon Rakszawski, director of product management, VanEck in New York.
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Its portfolio also holds the aforementioned stocks with Constellation and Cameco among the largest positions.
While the stars might be aligning for nuclear, conditions quickly change — i.e. battery power for renewables — that could make a long-term investment in nuclear suddenly less ideal.
Still, for investors with an appetite for risk and a long time horizon, the nuclear option could power long-term profitability.
Joel Schlesinger is a Winnipeg-based freelance journalist
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