Trade forecast: WTO sees 0.9% growth in 2025; Asia to lead as North America lags
In its latest forecast, the WTO revised next year's trade growth estimate down to 1.8%, from an earlier 2.5%, citing policy uncertainty and tariff escalation under US President Donald Trump. While the current year's forecast has improved from a -0.2% contraction predicted in April, it remains well below pre-tariff expectations, PTI reported.
'World merchandise trade is now projected to grow 0.9% in 2025, up from the -0.2% contraction forecasted in April but down from the 2.7% estimate pre-dating the tariff increases,' the WTO said.
The slight upward revision for 2025 is driven by frontloading of imports in the US ahead of the tariff implementation deadlines, the WTO noted. However, it cautioned that persistent uncertainty continues to undermine global trade momentum.
WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said the shadow of tariff threats is weighing heavily on business sentiment and supply chains. 'Uncertainty remains one of the most disruptive forces in the global trading environment,' she said.
The trade body highlighted that Asian economies will remain the largest contributors to global merchandise trade growth in 2025. However, their role is expected to decline in 2026. North America, on the other hand, is projected to exert a negative drag on global trade volumes in both years.
The revised estimates hold some significance for India, which has been grappling with muted export performance amid global volatility. India's merchandise exports were flat at $35.14 billion in June, while the trade deficit narrowed to $18.78 billion, a four-month low.
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