As Newsom ponders redistricting, California projected to lose as many as 4 congressional seats

San Francisco Chronicle​

a day ago

California could lose as many as four congressional seats in the 2030 apportionment, researchers say.
A recent report from the National Democratic Redistricting Committee (NDRC) echoes earlier forecasts of the state's declining political clout, including from the non-partisan American Redistricting Project and from the Brennan Center for Justice at New York University. All three reports found the state could lose at least three seats; the Brennan Center projected four.
California isn't alone. Other Democratic-leaning states like New York, Illinois and Minnesota are also expected to lose one or two seats due to population declines. Meanwhile, Republican-leaning Florida and Texas could each gain as many as four new seats.
Since districts in many of these states tend to be heavily gerrymandered, and because the Electoral College is winner-take-all, these changes would help Republicans in both presidential and congressional races if current partisan preferences hold.
The zero-sum math behind apportionment has always been the same: Each state receives seats in proportion to its population at each Census. For decades, that math worked in California's favor. Between 1950 and 1990, the state added an average of 6 new seats every apportionment cycle as its population ballooned.
But lately, the state's growth has stalled out. Sky-high housing prices have driven hundreds of thousands out of the Golden State — often to the same red states that are gaining seats at California's expense. That process accelerated during the pandemic, as many Californians left the state and worked remotely from places with lower living costs, said Michael Li, senior counsel for the Brennan Center's Democracy Program. A large number of Baby Boomers also moved out of the state after retirement, he said.
What's more, the immigrants who have lately powered the state's growth are staying away. Their numbers declined during the pandemic and under subsequent Trump-era restrictions.
The projected decline of California's clout matters as Gov. Gavin Newsom is considering a countermove to Texas Gov. Greg Abbott's redistricting plan favoring Republicans. Abbott called a special legislative session to redraw the state's congressional maps, a move that breaks from the custom of a once-a-decade redistricting cycle.
Typically, new maps wouldn't be drawn again until after the 2030 census, unless ordered by a court. But Trump allies are pressuring Texas to make changes early to give Republicans an edge before the midterms.
'They are clearly very, very scared that they're going to lose the House of Representatives in this coming midterm cycle, and they're tipping their hand that they're going to need to cheat,' said John Bisognano, the president of NDRC, which fights for redistricting favorable to Democrats.
For his part, Newsom could have a hard time using redistricting as a tool of partisan power.
Even if the governor wanted to redraw congressional maps to favor Democrats, which state law already makes difficult, the math might only work out until the next Census. Data shows that not only is California's population stagnant, it's shrinking fastest in Democratic parts of the state. On average, between 2020 and 2023, Republican-leaning congressional districts in California grew, while Democratic ones shrank.
California has limited tools to hold onto its political clout. For one thing, the state could invest more in boosting census participation, said Howard Fienberg, co-director at The Census Project.
'People may not be willing to report their information especially if they have illegal identity statuses or they are not proficient in English,' said Fienberg. 'It's also hard to count people accurately in rural or clustered urban areas.'
Of course, California could also combat its declining influence by doing what it used to: attracting lots of new residents. Some signs are positive. As more companies require in-person work, people are moving back to the state and the trend could shift in the near future, said Li.
'We are still only halfway through the decade,' said Li. 'The future could look very different.'