Paul Skenes' stats with Pirates are mind-blowing — especially the non-wins

New York Times

13 hours ago

Editor's note: This is a bonus Weird & Wild. To read this week's main W&W column, go here.
I've always enjoyed visiting Pittsburgh in the summer. Then again, I'm not Paul Skenes.
Maybe you've noticed this, but when the Greatest Pirates Pitching Phenom Ever takes the mound, amazing things happen. It would be cool if winning was one of those things. But hey, don't get greedy!
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Here at Weird and Wild World HQ, we've spent some time looking at this. And maybe it's just us, but we're starting to notice a common theme running through these starts by Skenes, a once-in-a-generation talent, pitching for a team that mostly forces that generation to cover its eyes a lot.
It doesn't matter how well Skenes pitches.
It doesn't matter how long Skenes pitches.
It doesn't matter if he's facing the Mets or the Marlins.
It always ends the same. By which I mean you won't be reading many box scores that say:
WP — Skenes
That's just a fact. But now here come more facts:
Over Skenes' past seven starts, he has a 1.77 ERA, he's averaging over six innings a start … and the Pirates are 2-5. Is that even possible?
But there's more. Of course there's more.
Over Skenes' 13 starts this season, he's leading the National League in bWAR, WHIP, innings pitched, quality starts, opponent average and even (cough, cough) a new-age stat known as Win Probability Added … and the Pirates have still found a way to ignore that 'win probability' stuff and go 5-8 when he pitches.
But wait. It gets worse. Would you like to know how much worse? You've come to the right place.
They're taking not winning to a whole new level — In his two seasons in the big leagues, Skenes is now up to 21 career starts in which he hasn't gotten a win. Somehow, it doesn't feel like that's his fault. His numbers, just in those non-wins: a 2.59 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 9.6 strikeouts per nine innings.
Ready for the complete list of everyone in history with that many starts (or more) whose career ERA is that spectacular in their non-wins? (This is since earned runs became an official stat in 1913 — and not counting openers.) It won't take long. Here it comes:
Paul Skenes — 2.59
That's a wrap on that list.
(Source: Baseball Reference / Katie Sharp)
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But here's even more perspective: Only one pitcher in history is even within half a run of that: Hoyt Wilhelm (who spent most of his career as a reliever), at 2.99. And the next closest active starter — Jacob deGrom — has an ERA in those games nearly a full run higher (at 3.54).
So there's that. But also …
Crazy Eights — Skenes has made three career starts of eight innings or longer. His ERA in those starts is 1.48. His record in those starts is … what else? … 0-3.
The record of all other MLB starters over the past two seasons, in starts of eight innings or longer: How about 86-5!
And just for fun … how about we throw in a few more tidbits where those came from? These are just in games he hasn't won:
• Four non-wins this season in starts of five innings or longer, with no more than three hits allowed. That would be — shockingly, I know — the most of any pitcher in baseball.
• Nine non-wins, in his career, in starts of five innings or longer, with no more than one run allowed. That's tied for (yep) the most in baseball in that span.
• Ten non-wins, in his career, in starts of five innings or longer, with no more than one earned run allowed. That's tied for most in the NL, and it's one behind Yusei Kikuchi for most in baseball.
All of this is happening at the confluence of the Allegheny, Monongahela and Ohio Rivers, in real life, to one of the special talents we've seen pass through our sport in this century. To everyone in Pittsburgh, we can only say: Sorry! And just seven weeks until Steelers training camp!
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