Kelly Evans: Tariffs come to America
Up until now, the tariffs story has largely been one of fear, hesitation, and markets plunging. Now begins the real "impact" part.
The trouble is, the retail impact is beginning in a comically small way next to the massive moves we've had in markets in recent weeks. I posted about this on "X" yesterday, but the price hikes at Shein and Temu have started to take effect, and well...the results are revealing.
While the headline numbers are quite large--"377% price increases!"--the details show just how shockingly cheap items on these Chinese shopping platforms still are. A pack of kitchen towels on Shein goes from $1.28 to $6.10. An eyelash shaper tool goes from 44 cents to $1.11.
"Still dirt cheap," wrote one commenter. "My tees are still crazy cheap, basically the same price as before. Definitely stocking up!" wrote another. "Prices skyrocket, but still won't be cheap enough to be made in the U.S.," wrote a third. "Another example of the failure of tariffs to offset competitive advantage."
Perhaps Shein's IPO will be fine after all. But even as markets are calming down about the tariff drama (there is a of new corporate debt issuance today, a sign markets are getting back to normal), and even as these markup examples will make the freakout seem overblown, the real impact is more behind-the-scenes.
Apollo, for instance, expects a recession this summer as the impact of the massive slowdown in Chinese imports that we've already witnessed translates into widespread layoffs across retail and trucking. Goldman now thinks the U.S. economy will grow only 0.5% this year.
Shares of FedEx, for instance, have dropped 13% this month since the huge "Liberation Day" tariffs were announced. And regional Fed surveys (like the Dallas Fed this morning) have been showing exceptionally weak capital spending plans by businesses, which could take three to six months to show up in the broader economy, according to Ironsides Macro.
But there is a third layer to this story also, as Valley Bank CEO Ira Robbins told us on Friday. said loan demand and investment plans by his clients are actually still quite strong right now. He even gave the example of a client investing in Alabama warehouses in anticipation of a U.S. reshoring boom.
And he said while large multinationals--the kinds whose stock prices we pay a lot of attention to--are reeling from tariffs, U.S. businesses are actually feeling resilient and even being opportunistic amid the turmoil.
Little wonder the market can't figure out exactly what to make of the story from here, especially as the details keep on changing. Like the iShares Mexico ETF being at an eight-month right now as investors think it could end up in a better competitive position vis-a-vis China after all.
The tariffs are only just starting to come to America, and the real impact is far from being known yet.
See you at 1 p.m!
Kelly
Twitter: @KellyCNBC
Instagram: @realkellyevans
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