Border crisis blues

Bangkok Post

a day ago

Simmering tensions along the Thai-Cambodian border have intensified the political storm in Thailand, with analysts saying the Pheu Thai-led government is rapidly losing public trust amid accusations of weak leadership, poor crisis communication, and possible secret dealings.
Public confidence in Pheu Thai had already declined, as indicated by the second quarter NIDA Poll, conducted on June 19-25.
Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, suspended from duty pending a Constitutional Court ruling over a leaked audio clip involving her conversation with Cambodian Senate President Hun Sen, won an approval rating of just 9.20%, down from 30.90% in the first quarter. The sharp drop came even before the recent border clashes erupted.
Analysts believe the escalating violence and the government's sluggish response are likely to further shrink public support.
Absence of trust
Olarn Thinbangtieo, deputy dean of Burapha University's faculty of political science and law, said the Paetongtarn administration has struggled from the start to dispel public doubts about possible hidden agendas due to the Shinawatra family's close ties with Cambodian strongman Hun Sen.
Distrust began to grow following a meeting between her father, former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, and Hun Sen at Thaksin's home in Bangkok after he was granted parole in February last year.
The situation further deteriorated after Ms Paetongtarn was heard criticising the commander of the Second Army Region and appearing overly willing to yield to Hun Sen's demands in the leaked conversation.
Following the border clashes, the government has been criticised for failing to manage crisis communication. While the military has taken a proactive role, the government's slow response has fueled speculation about behind-the-scenes interests, said Mr Olarn.
And rather than addressing the situation directly, the government has allowed Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, in his capacity as Asean chair, to mediate the conflict, with the United States also playing a part in the process.
Although Malaysia's intervention is in line with Asean's approach, Thaksin serves as an adviser to Mr Anwar, and with his complex relationship with Hun Sen, many believe Thaksin may have asked Anwar to step in, he said.
The circumstances have led many to wonder if the border conflict is being used as a pretext to enable deal-making or interest sharing in the overlapping claims area (OCA) between the countries, an area believed to have rich fossil fuel deposits.
"The government has done nothing. Such inaction has only fueled public suspicion. Lives are at stake, so people are beginning to question whether there are hidden interests behind the scenes, particularly involving the Shinawatra and Hun families," he said.
Mr Olarn said Cambodia has outperformed Thailand on many fronts in the conflict, such as international diplomacy, and unity between the government and its military.
Nonetheless, the conservative camp sees Thaksin and his networks as necessary, so they are likely to maintain their status for now.
However, Mr Olarn expressed doubts about Pheu Thai's chances of winning the next elections though Ms Paetongtarn is likely to hold on to the prime minister post as long as there is no court order to remove her from office.
Public backlash
Prathuang Muang-on, a lecturer at Ubon Ratchathani University's political science faculty, said the border conflict has eroded confidence in the ruling party, pointing to open hostility toward Thaksin during his recent visit to Ubon Ratchathani to support civilians displaced by the clashes.
While the lower Northeast is traditionally not a stronghold for Pheu Thai's constituency MPs, the party has performed well in the party-list system. But the border dispute is thought to cut into the party's support in Ubon Ratchathani and Si Sa Ket by at least 5%.
Also, although Pheu Thai has a broad support base in the Northeast, the fallout from the border dispute has sparked criticism among northeastern voters, Mr Prathuang said.
The leaked clip was the first factor, followed by the government's slow response in addressing the crisis and helping those affected. Combined with the military's proactive role in the conflict, the government is viewed negatively, he said.
Even if Ms Paetongtarn steps down and Pheu Thai's prime ministerial candidate Chaikasem Nitisiri takes over, it is unlikely to make much of a difference.
However, does not expect a dramatic change in Pheu Thai's overall seat count in the next elections, though the landslide victories in the constituency system which the party once enjoyed are now a thing of the past. It would also have a tough time winning party-list support.
Court ruling is key
Korkaew Pikulthong, a red-shirt leader and a Pheu Thai list-MP, admitted the government's image has suffered from poor communication but insisted the border tensions are unlikely to change the political landscape.
"What really matters is the court's decision. If the court rules against Ms Paetongtarn, she is out, and the fallout could be immense. The party's third candidate, Mr Chaikasem, may not have much backing from the party MPs or coalition partners," he said.
It was too soon to say whether the political turbulence marks a turning point even if Ms Paetongtarn is removed from office because the court decision would be based on evidence rather than an attempt to eliminate a political family.
"It can't be concluded it is the end of Shinawatra family. It is one-time incident to be judged on its own merits. But if the prime minister is removed from office, it will shake public confidence," he said.
He said that Thaksin still holds political clout and the former prime minister commands more public confidence than many other political figures.
Asked whether the Shinawatra family's clout is fading, he said Pheu Thai has been on a downward trend since the last general election.
He said stimulus schemes were not effective in reviving the economy because cash handouts were often not spent as intended. A digital wallet would allow more control and ensure the money is spent effectively, he added.
Still, he said the focus now is on delivering results, especially on key economic initiatives and passing the budget bill which is not expected to face any hurdles.
In the event the government is unable to continue, a House dissolution is the most likely path forward. While some analysts predict Pheu Thai could fall below 100 seats in the next elections, he said: "Let's not underestimate the party too soon."
Full-blown crisis of faith
Bhumjaithai Party deputy leader Siripong Angkasakulkiat said the government faces a deep lack of public confidence, and its actions, whether from Thaksin, Ms Paetongtarn or acting prime minister Phumtham Wechayachai, have done little to inspire confidence.
He criticised the government's handling of the border conflict, saying it should have relied on formal, state-level diplomacy. Instead, the government's tone comes across as personal, which has stirred suspicions.
Mr Siripong also pointed to a lack of coordination and strategic direction within the administration. Many officials appear hesitant to act if there are no clear instructions, possibly out of fear of making missteps or displeasing their superiors or the public.
"They do what only they are told. When there are no clear orders, nothing gets done. The government communication has been one-sided, focusing only on positive news without offering a clear, comprehensive plan to address the crisis," he said.
Mr Siripong said the Pheu Thai-led government has a chance to prove itself, but missed it. "What they now face is a full-blown crisis of public faith," he said.
Asked whether the Shinawatra family still carries weight, he said Thailand risks heading down a path similar to Cambodia, where political power remains in a single family.
On the government's fate, he said the ruling party's focus is on short-term populist projects, such as the 20-baht electric train fare policy, with which it hopes to score quick wins ahead of elections. However, it is unclear if this will work.
Pheu Thai could slip to the third place and win fewer than 100 seats in the next polls.
"The government's future hinges on two key events: the court's ruling on Ms Paetongtarn's case and the outcome of the next censure debate. Based on the current public mood, it's hard to see this administration lasting much longer," he said.