Cambodia 'cosying up to US'

Bangkok Post

2 days ago

Cambodia's efforts to drag the United States into the Thai-Cambodian border conflict are an attempt to build broader support rather than marking a shift away from its close relationship with China, experts say.
Dulyapak Preecharush, deputy director of the East Asian Studies Institute at Thammasat University, said although Cambodia has long leaned heavily towards China, it has flirted for engagement with the US under Hun Manet's leadership.
When China appeared to stall on the construction of Funan Techo Canal, one of Cambodia's megaprojects, several months ago, the Cambodian government welcomed a US warship to Sihanoukville, a port where Chinese investments are heavily concentrated.
He said if the US gains strategic access to Cambodia's naval facilities, China would likely see it as a direct challenge which could heighten tensions in the region.
Mr Dulyapak said Phnom Penh is employing a two-faced strategy to balance the two superpowers and such a move is likely to disturb Beijing which has made massive economic and strategic investments in Cambodia.
And from an East Asian cultural perspective, this may be viewed as a form of betrayal, he said. "China will likely try to counter this by either expanding its investments in Cambodia to counter the US or strengthening ties with Thailand," he said.
He said the US cannot afford to abandon its longstanding ties and strategic alliance with Thailand, and military facilities in U-Tapao in Rayong or Thap Lamu in Phangnga hold significance to the US strategy in the Indo-Pacific region.
"So even China and the US increasingly focus on Cambodia, neither can drop Thailand as they both have the grand strategy to get control in the Indian Ocean and the Pacific," he said.
Cambodia, he said, appears to be doing everything it can to attract international support in the conflict with Thailand, but he warned that there is a price to pay. Major countries usually assess their strategic interests before getting involved and Cambodia must prepare for the long-term risks of this strategy, he warned.
Thailand, meanwhile, must not underestimate Cambodia's geopolitical play, he said, adding that China and the US may become new players in the division of interests in the Gulf of Thailand which is already shared among Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam, and Malaysia.
"This could turn the Gulf of Thailand into a flashpoint of regional geopolitics," he said.
He said Cambodia's move to take the dispute to the International Court of Justice is unlikely to make much impact because Thailand, like the US, does not recognise the ICJ's jurisdiction.
"What's more important is whether Thailand decides to pursue a war crimes case against Hun Sen at the International Criminal Court," he said.
'THE MASTER OF LOBBYING'
Wanwichit Boonprong, a political science expert at Rangsit University, said Cambodia's move reflects Hun Sen's pattern of breaking a deal with an existing supporter and shifting towards a new supporter who may offer greater advantages.
He said this is a gamble aimed at buying favour and based on the assumption the US, which can play any role it wants in international affairs to benefit itself, can pressure Thailand.
"Hun Sen thinks that using China to pressure Thailand is out of the question due to deep and longstanding ties. China simply won't interfere in that way," he said.
Cambodia's shift is likely due to China's crackdown on scammer networks which has affected its underground economy, Mr Wanwichit said.
Asked how Thailand should handle the situation, he said the real concern is not Thailand's position, but whether the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is ready to act, as it has come under heavy criticism for its slow response to the border crisis.
He said Thailand has far more complex and attractive interests than Cambodia and it is believed a major energy company is eyeing future concessions. It also explains why Hun Sen has combined business and politics to his advantage, he said.
"We must strengthen our teams first. Cambodia also underestimates Thailand. We may not be good at complaining to the international community, but we are the master of lobbying," he said.
A PLAY FOR POWER
Virot Ali, an international relations lecturer at Thammasat University, said Cambodia's efforts to strengthen ties with the US is unlikely to mark a shift from China. Rather, it reflects Cambodia's diplomatic approach of leaning toward whoever offers greater interest.
Cambodia cannot totally shift from China due to its heavy economic reliance on Chinese investments and its current efforts to court the US are likely driven by two key factors: the border tensions with Thailand and the US reciprocal tariff.
Cambodia has been granted a 19% tariff rate which is favourable given that it faced a 49% US tariff, he said.
Mr Virot said, however, that US-Cambodia ties are unlikely to turn into meaningful gains on the global stage and that in the border dispute, Thailand is more likely to receive broader support in international forums.
On the territorial claims, Cambodia could petition the ICJ but the matter is not about international support, but whether Thailand will take part in the legal process, he said. So far there is no sign of the US or China taking a stance on the border conflict.
He said Cambodia's international campaign is aimed at pressuring Thailand, but has had little real impact. "There are facts on the ground and foreign news agencies in Thailand understand the situation well...knowing that Cambodia didn't respect the ceasefire pact and targeted civilians," he said.
When asked about Cambodia's plan to revive military exercises with the US, he said it is clear the US wants to reassert its presence in the region after more than a decade of keeping a distance.
This is part of the larger strategy to contain China's influence and its re-entry into the region has implications especially for Beijing while Thailand must decide how it will navigate the tensions between these two powers, he said.
US RE-ENGAGEMENT
Panitan Wattanayagorn, an independent national security scholar, said the US ties with Cambodia should prompt Thailand to be more vigilant and adjust its relationship with the US especially through long-standing military ties.
He said if Thailand does not act, Cambodia may turn even more unfriendly towards Thailand while noting that recent remarks by the incoming US ambassador are a cause for concern as they suggest trust issues and a distant relationship.
Regarding a delegation from the Royal Cambodian Armed Forces visiting the US Indo-Pacific Command, he said Cambodia wants to develop an air force and needs US assistance while China remains Cambodia's primary partner in naval development.
This is Phnom Penh seeking a balance between China and the US and Thailand will have to find a new balance, too, he said.
When asked whether Cambodia's ties with the US could give Phnom Penh an edge on the international stage, Mr Panitan said there is a possibility given Washington's ambiguous stance toward Thailand. He added that the equal 19% tariff granted to both countries could be perceived as a diplomatic win for Cambodia.
Regarding the territorial claims, he said Cambodia, which as a small country, needs international backing and has drawn up a foreign policy "game" and followed it, but Thailand might have underestimated its play.
He suggested Thailand should press Unesco and the global community to urge Cambodia's withdrawal from ancient ruins and use a bilateral framework for negotiations.
Mr Panitan said Thailand has recently begun to counter Cambodia's play, but it is not on the offensive yet.
"We must broaden our diplomacy to reduce Cambodia's ability to twist information at global forums and bring the dispute back to bilateral talks. That's what we must do and we haven't done enough of it," he said.