Crunching the numbers of running for president

RTÉ News​

6 days ago

It costs a lot of money to run for president of Ireland.
In the 2018 presidential election, the six candidates spent more than €1.3 million between them.
In 2011, when an incumbent wasn't running, the seven candidates that year spent €2.3 million. The highest spending candidate was Fine Gael's Gay Mitchell. His campaign cost €527,000.
Under the rules of the Electoral Act 1997, a candidate for the Irish presidency cannot exceed a spend of €750,000.
In all presidential, general and European elections, candidates are entitled to a reimbursement from the State if they exceed one quarter of the quota.
For presidential elections a quarter of the quota is 50% plus one. So in order for a presidential candidate to be reimbursed, they must get at least 12.5% of votes.
In 2011, three of the seven candidate met this threshold. In 2018, just two candidates did.
For the upcoming presidential election, the cap on reimbursement has been set at €250,000. In 2018, the cap was €200,000.
Political scientist Liz Carolan said that the high cost with the potential for no reimbursement, may explain why some parties seem hesitant to put a candidate forward.
"It could be that they're looking back to that experience and they're looking and saying this could easily cost us half a million," she said.
That means if a party misreads its candidate's popularity, not only is it potentially embarrassingly, but also hugely costly.
"A few former candidates have come out and sort of spoken about how it was a costly and bruising experience," Ms Carolan added.
Expenses in a presidential campaign
In the 2018 election, just under €75,000 was declared by all candidates as donations to their campaign. That amounts to around 5% of the €1.3 million that was spent by all candidates during that campaign.
"It does appear that a log of the funding behind the presidential campaign must be coming from the parties' own funds that they've been raising, individuals own funds, some of these small donations, or some combination of the of all three," Ms Carolan said.
This is because the rules on accepting donations in Ireland for a political campaign are quite limiting.
Richard Moore was involved in the presidential election campaigns of both Seán Gallagher in 2011 and that of Gavin Duffy in 2018.
In 2011, the big difference between Mr Gallagher and the other candidates in the race was the decision by his campaign not to use election posters.
"I think the best thing [Seán Gallagher] did was not buy the posters," Mr Moore said.
"They're just too expensive.
"Back then there were €10 a go."
Mr Gallagher made it a point of difference in his campaign that he was the only candidate who wasn't putting up posters.
"He used it as a virtue," Mr Moore said, adding that many people are annoyed by posters despite the fact they are useful for recognition.
Mr Moore says Mr Gallagher's decision "definitely" started a trend.
In 2011, six out of seven candidates used posters as part of their campaign.
In 2018, just two candidates out of six did so.
In Seán Gallagher's campaign, Mr Moore said the big expenses were staffing and leaflets which were handed out to people outside GAA matches, DART stops and LUAS stops.
Mr Moore said that he doesn't believe that either campaign he worked on spent a significant amount of money on online advertising but that could change this time around.
"If you're a political party, you've already got the background people, because they're in party headquarters anyway," Mr Moore said.
"You might hire in a few extra people, but generally speaking, you already have your support staff.
"If you run as an independent, you have to build up your staff in a short period of time.
"Communications people, your advertising people, your campaign manager is very important ... your diary people."
Mr Moore said that staffing is the big expense for an independent candidate. However, he maintains that no spend is worth more than the candidate's performance on the TV debates.
"That's where I think the resources would need to be put into in terms of maybe candidate training and that kind of stuff.
"Ultimately it's always going to be won or lost on TV."
Fundraising and merchandise
In 2018, the biggest spender was the incumbent, Michael D Higgins. His election campaign expenses were reported as more than €360,000.
Conor Power, director of elections for President Higgins' re-election bid in 2018 said that this campaign was unique as it was the first time a sitting president was campaigning for a second term since Éamon de Valera in the 1960s.
Mr Power said that President Higgins was "extremely popular" in 2018 and therefore "fundraising was not the most difficult."
The campaign also had a lot of merchandising that it was able to raise money from.
"Certain spends in a campaign are preordained," Mr Power said, citing posters and advertising on both traditional and social media platforms.
"You have to reach people where they are," Mr Power said, "whether that be by posters, by leafleting and then canvassing."
"People want to meet the candidates, that's a big issue and a part of any spend."
Mr Power said he doesn't feel there is any one particular expense that is vital to a campaign.
"A campaign spend has to be balanced around all the different means of communication and means of getting people to meet the candidate," he said.
Election literature of the past
Alan Kinsella has been collecting Irish election literature since he was 12 years old and his collection for the Irish presidency goes back to the 1930s.
One thing that is clear from looking at the literature is that the bid for the Irish presidency is a personality-driven race rather than party-driven.
"Dev, Erskine Childers, Adi Roach, Mary Robinson, Brian Lenihan, Liadh Ní Riada and Michael D Higgins - none of them have the party logo," Mr Kinsella said, referring to his collection of leaflets.
"Mary McAleese is the only person to have won a presidential election using the party logo and actually she was a candidate for Fianna Fáil and the Progressive Democrats," he added.
Although Michael D Higgins and Mary Robinson both used the Labour Party rose, neither used the Labour Party itself in their election material.