Migration In Poland: Where The Two Presidential Candidates Stand

Forbes

2 days ago

Karol Nawrocki (Left) and Rafal Trzaskowski (Right) take part in the last presidential debate before ... More elections day in Warsaw, Poland, May 12, 2025.
Poland is to hold a second-round runoff election in early June to elect the next President. The two candidates appear polar opposites. Liberal-centrist Warsaw mayor, with Prime Minister Donald Tusk's Civic Platform party, is facing off against conservative Karol Nawrocki who is technically independent but supported by the right-wing Law and Justice party (PiS). Both candidates are using migration in Poland as a core campaign issue.
Migration, particularly irregular migration, is one of the dominant issues in the country, particularly with regards to the war in Ukraine and Poland's eastern border with Belarus. In recent years, Belarus has been accused of deliberately shepherding asylum seekers and other irregular migrants over the border with Poland, as well as other EU member states such as Lithuania and Latvia, allegedly in order to destabilize the bloc. Amid this, PM Tusk announced the right to asylum in Polish territory had been suspended, a move which was condemned by human rights groups but defended by Tusk as part of his duty 'to protect the Polish and European border.' At the same time, Poland is currently facing accusations in the European Court of Human Rights that its forces have violently repelled people trying to seek shelter.
The liberal Civic Platform candidate Rafal Trzaskowski has made immigration one of the main talking points in his campaign, apparently in a bid to match his more right-wing opponent on the issue and to avoid looking 'soft' as a liberal. He has, according to the news and analysis site Notes from Poland, previously spoken out about immigrant criminality, and increased patrols in the capital during his tenure as mayor. He also endorsed PM Tusk's suspension of asylum and said he wants to cut some benefits for people sheltering in Poland.
In a debate with his opponent in late May, Trzaskowski spoke out about the upcoming EU Pact on Migration and Asylum, which in theory could oblige Poland to take more refugees from the Middle East and Africa or face penalties. "The migration pact will never come into force," said Trzaskowski, according to the Polish Press Agency, adding that "if we help Ukrainians, we won't take anyone else."
Using the presence of Ukrainian refugees in Poland to defer responsibility for those from elsewhere is a familiar strategy in Poland. As far back as 2018, former PiS Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki was invoking people fleeing Ukraine as an excuse to reject refugee resettlement from elsewhere.
Nawrocki, for his part, has been even more strident on immigration. In that same debate, he called migration a 'major problem' and is reported to have said 'we need deportation centers for illegal migrants, not centers for their integration.' Notes from Poland, which has extensive analysis of the upcoming election, reported in April that Nawrocki had announced he would introduce a bill to make sure Polish citizens are not 'treated worse' than refugees in accessing public services, health- and child-care. Such rhetoric fits neatly with the existing populist playbook seen elsewhere around Europe, such as in Hungary. Such a strategy seeks to blame the EU for 'forcing' its member states to shoulder the burden of caring for refugees, at the expense of their own citizens.
Poland, formerly regarded as a country of emigration has in recent years seen a significant increase in immigration. This has been driven in large part by people either fleeing Ukraine amid the war of Russian aggression, or looking for work in Poland (something that has long predated this current stage of the conflict with Russia). According to the Polish government, over 500,000 applications for residence permits were made in 2024, and Poland has long led the league table in the EU for the highest amount of permits issued each year.
Whoever is elected President will play a prominent role in PM Tusk's future legislative agenda. While most political power rests with the parliament, the President has the power to veto legislation, meaning that a win for Trzaskowski would likely allow Tusk to fast-track legislation, while if Nawrocki wins there could be little progress. While migration in Poland is just one of the issues in this elections, it could prove decisive in the country's future direction.