3 key looming Trump decisions will shape the future of the economy

CNN

5 days ago

'It's ultimately up to the president to decide.'
That's more or less the go-to line for Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and a host of other top Trump aides and White House officials when they share the administration's plans for tariffs and trade negotiations.
With the August 1 deadline for higher tariffs rapidly approaching, President Donald Trump has a week to make a number of critical decisions about trade that could shape the future of the US and global economies.
Trump in early April paused most of his so-called reciprocal tariffs. They're set to resume next Friday.
But one of the few tariffs that Trump put in place on April 2 that has since stuck is the 10% universal tariff on virtually all goods coming into the United States. In recent weeks, Trump has suggested that he could raise that minimum tariff — perhaps even doubling it.
'We're just going to say all of the remaining countries are going to pay, whether it's 20% or 15%. We'll work that out now,' Trump told NBC News on July 10. He has since floated 15% a number of times.
Trump has sent letters to the leaders of more than a dozen countries over the course of the past few weeks, setting new tariff rates that are scheduled to go into effect August 1. But Trump has a crucial decision to make about every other country: What tariff will they pay?
Most market observers expect the new universal tariff to be set at 15%, because recent trade agreements with Japan, Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam were all at or above that level. The Financial Times on Wednesday reported that the European Union is nearing a trade agreement with the United States that sets tariffs on EU goods exported to the United States at 15%.
'After seeing the 15% tariff levied on all Japanese imported goods, let's assume that the new baseline tariff rate will be that, instead of 10%, on all imported goods,' said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer of One Point BFG Wealth Partners, in a note to investors Wednesday morning.
Trump's tariffs that are currently in effect have raised the effective US tariff rate — the average tax that US importers pay on foreign goods — from around 2% to 18%, the highest since 1934, economists at Yale's Budget Lab said in a recent report. That works out to $2,400 a year in added costs for the average American household.
A higher universal tariff, if that's what Trump ultimately decides to implement, would add to that cost.
With $3.3 trillion of annual imported goods, subtracting the $400 billion of tariff-exempted items from Canada and Mexico, that means roughly $2.9 trillion of goods each year will be taxed at 15% — $435 billion of taxes paid by US consumers and businesses, Boockvar noted.
That's a lot of money: For comparison, that's only $90 billion less than what all corporations pay in US income taxes each year.
Trump has repeatedly suggested that he would put major tariffs on pharmaceuticals that are manufactured outside the United States — the vast majority of US drugs — starting August 1.
A crucial decision for Trump: What will that tariff be, how will it be rolled out, and which drugs will be covered under the new tax?
Trump on July 8 said he would place 200% tariffs on pharmaceuticals 'very soon,' but he noted they may not take full effect for some time to allow drugmakers time to make plans to move to the US. Trump has paused industry-based tariffs before, including autos and auto parts, after company leaders complained that the immediate tariffs gave them insufficient time to shift production to the United States — a costly process that can take years.
It's not clear what Trump's timeframe or plans may be. Trump has floated drug tariffs for months, but has yet to provide any concrete plans.
Patient advocates and drug supply chain experts warn that tariffs would probably lead to higher drug prices and exacerbate drug shortages.
The Trump administration launched an investigation into pharmaceutical imports in mid-April, setting the stage to impose tariffs on national security grounds. The White House and some proponents have argued that the United States needs more domestic drug manufacturing so it does not have to rely on other countries for its supply of medicines.
But any increase in US domestic drug production would probably take years to implement.
Although some drugmakers — most recently AstraZeneca — have announced expansions of their US-based manufacturing initiatives, some were in the works prior to Trump taking office in January, and those factories would not be able to entirely supplant foreign exports to the United States.
A last crucial decision: Trump needs to decide whether he will ultimately allow the massive new tariffs on countries around the world to go into effect — or to delay them again.
After April 2, when Trump put the reciprocal tariffs in place, markets tumbled. By April 9, markets had flirted multiple times with bear market territory, tumbling nearly 20% from the record high they had hit just several weeks earlier. The bond market had also begun to show signs that it might break — until Bessent guided Trump away from his harshest tariff levels.
But since then, Trump has recorded several trade agreements with foreign countries — most importantly, China and Japan — giving investors a significant sense of relief and certainty. Wall Street also believes that, if necessary, it can put significant pressure on Trump to refrain from his most aggressive trade policies — a theory that has generated the moniker 'TACO,' or 'Trump Always Chickens Out.'
With the stock market once again trading at record highs and bond yields stable, Trump may have less incentive to 'chicken out' this time around.
However, the better-than-expected agreement with Japan announced Tuesday suggests the White House may be reluctant to push important trading partners too hard, recognizing that the economic pain from high tariffs and potential tit-for-tat retaliation could prove unacceptable to businesses, investors and the public, noted Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, global head of equities for UBS Global Wealth Management.
So, some of Trump's most aggressive threats, including a 50% tariff on Brazil as punishment for charges against former President Jair Bolsonaro for alleged attempted election fraud, may ultimately be reduced or paused.
CNN's Elisabeth Buchwald, Lex Harvey, Luciana Lopez, Tami Luhby and Meg Tirrell contributed to this report.