Gold at a crossroads: Will fed's hawkish pause and Iran conflict spark a $3,400 breakout?
Gold prices are currently under pressure due to the US Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates. This has strengthened the US Dollar. Geopolitical tensions and trade worries offer some support to gold. Spot gold is trading near $3,387. Technical levels to watch include support at $3,322 and resistance at $3,374.
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Why is gold falling today?
The Fed now expects only one rate cut of 25 bps in both 2026 and 2027.
This 'hawkish' view supports the US Dollar and pressures gold.
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Geopolitics and trade tensions still support gold
US Senate Intel Chair said Trump wants to give Iran a last chance to end its nuclear program.
Trump is reportedly delaying any strikes for about two weeks.
Gold price now and key levels to watch
Spot gold trades just below $3,350, after falling earlier in the day.
Earlier this week, gold touched a nearly 2-month high close to $3,452.
The US Dollar pulled back after a recent peak, giving gold slight support.
Technical view: Can gold stay above key support?
Immediate support: $3,323–$3,322
Next support: $3,300
Key resistance: $3,374–$3,375
Next hurdle: $3,400
Upside target if breakout happens: $3,434–$3,435, then $3,451–$3,452
Major breakout point: $3,500 (psychological level, also near top of ascending channel)
What traders should watch next
If gold drops below $3,322, it may fall further to $3,300 or even lower.
If gold breaks above $3,400, it could aim for $3,435 and even $3,452.
A clear move above $3,500 could open the door to test $3,550 or $3,600.
RSI is weakening but close to key levels; a move back above 60 would signal strength.
Today's focus: Geopolitics and the Fed outlook
US–Iran tensions: US officials reportedly preparing strike options; Trump says, 'I may do it. I may not.'
Fed signals fewer rate cuts in future years, boosting the Dollar and limiting gold upside.
Gold prices are facing selling pressure even though there are some factors that could help support them. The Federal Reserve's tough stance on interest rates is helping the US Dollar and putting pressure on gold.Trade worries and increasing geopolitical tensions may support gold as a safe-haven asset. Gold prices have dropped to their lowest in over a week, trading just below a key level in early European trading. This comes after the Fed recently lowered its forecast for future rate cuts, which boosts the US Dollar and reduces demand for gold, since it doesn't pay interest.Gold is under pressure again even though some factors could support it. Prices are hovering just under $3,350 after falling earlier in the day. Traders are watching global risks and the US Federal Reserve's recent interest rate outlook.The US Federal Reserve kept interest rates the same but said it now plans fewer rate cuts in 2026 and 2027. This made the US Dollar stronger and reduced demand for gold, which doesn't give any interest.On top of that, European stock markets are doing well, which is reducing safe-haven demand for gold.Even with the pressure, gold still has some support. Rising tensions in the Middle East are worrying investors. The fight between Iran and Israel has now gone on for eight days. There's also speculation that the US may get involved.At the same time, US–China trade worries are growing again. Trump has warned of new tariffs on the pharma sector, and more could come before the July 9 'liberation day' tariff deadline.This kind of uncertainty usually supports gold as a safe asset.Gold has dropped below the 100-period SMA and is testing the lower edge of an ascending channel. Momentum indicators are losing strength, especially on hourly charts.For now, gold is trading between $3,322 and $3,400. A clear breakout from this range could set the direction for the coming weeks.
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