In Upper House election, Nippon Ishin faces key test in birthplace Osaka

Japan Times

08-07-2025

Nippon Ishin no Kai faces a make-or-break situation in its birthplace of Osaka Prefecture in the upcoming House of Councilors election, as the opposition party struggles with dwindling support.
Komeito, the junior partner in Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's ruling coalition, is also in a crucial fight in the prefectural constituency in the July 20 election for the upper chamber of parliament, as it is facing pressure from an upstart political party.
Nippon Ishin, Komeito and the Liberal Democratic Party, the dominant partner in the ruling bloc, have won the four seats of the constituency in the past three Upper House races, but the landscape could be set to change in the upcoming poll.
"All (other) political parties are headquartered in Tokyo," Nippon Ishin chief and Osaka Gov. Hirofumi Yoshimura said in his first stump speech of the Upper House election campaigning on Thursday. "Nippon Ishin is the only party that truly thinks about regional areas."
Speaking in the Namba district, one of the busiest areas of the city of Osaka, Yoshimura touted his party's accomplishments in administrative and fiscal reform in the Osaka prefectural and city governments, while calling for voters' support.
The audience was not as engaged as it had been in past elections, however, and one local assembly member from the party admitted that "the crowd is small."
Nippon Ishin has fielded two former Osaka city assembly members in the Upper House race, Rie Sasaki and Futoshi Okazaki. The party has won two seats in Osaka at every Upper House poll since 2016.
But its support ratings have been falling, with its proportional representation vote tally in the prefecture falling by about 560,000 at last year's election for the House of Representatives, the lower chamber of parliament.
The party is also struggling with internal turmoil, with a sitting Upper House lawmaker and an Osaka city assembly member both leaving Nippon Ishin after failing to secure its backing for the upcoming election.
Sasaki and Okazaki jointly attended a rally in the Osaka city of Sakai on Thursday night, where they asked the more than 200 supporters in attendance to "divide neatly" their votes between the two candidates. The call came after Nippon Ishin apparently determined that securing two seats would be difficult if votes are concentrated on one candidate.
About 300 local assembly members and local government heads in Osaka are supporting the campaigning of Sasaki and Okazaki. They have split into two teams to engage in campaign activities for each candidate.
Sasaki and Okazaki spend the day campaigning separately but jointly attend night rallies. They ask supporters to split between the two the votes of their family members and acquaintances.
Yoshimura has set a target of Nippon Ishin winning at least six seats in the Upper House race. With the party struggling to garner support, a senior party official suggested that this goal "can't be achieved without taking two (seats) in Osaka."
"If the party drops a seat, it may affect the fate of the leader," another Nippon Ishin official said.
Other roots in Osaka
Osaka is a special place for Komeito. A candidate fielded by its main support group, the lay Buddhist group Soka Gakkai, in the prefectural constituency won a seat in the 1956 Upper House election, marking its debut in national politics.
The 1956 campaign was led by the late Daisaku Ikeda, who later became Sokka Gakkai's leader. Komeito has since held onto the Osaka constituency seat.
But in last year's Lower House election, Komeito failed to defend all four of its constituency seats in the prefecture.
The party has struggled to gather votes due to Soka Gakkai's aging membership.
"I don't know what will happen now," an Osaka city prefectural assembly member said.
Hisatake Sugi, who is seeking his third term in the Upper House, said while speaking in a stump speech in front of a major shopping complex in the city of Osaka on Thursday that he had paved the way for a reduced consumption tax rate for certain goods.
The LDP, Komeito and Nippon Ishin view Sanseito as a threat to their seats. The upstart party has set Osaka as a key opportunity for gains. Its leader, Sohei Kamiya, held speeches in the prefecture on Friday and Saturday.
Kamiya, formerly a city assembly member from the Osaka city of Suita, held a speech in the same place where Yoshimura had delivered his first stump speech of the campaigning, telling voters that "Sanseito has its roots in Osaka."
The Democratic Party for the People is also looking to grab an Osaka seat. Its chief, Yuichiro Tamaki, has spoken on multiple days in the prefecture.
As Sanseito and the DPP are adept in campaigning on social media, it is difficult to gauge the level of support for their respective candidates, Chisato Miyade and Rio Watanabe.
Rei Hashiguchi — who was fielded by the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, which placed sixth in the past two Upper House elections — is hoping to gather the votes of constituents critical of the government.
A Komeito official said the party is "in a battle for fourth place with forces that had previously been unlikely to win."
A senior Nippon Ishin official also expressed worry, saying the party is "viewed as an established party" and that it must differentiate itself by touting its achievements.