Tigers spring training mailbag, Part 2: Who will lead the team in saves?

New York Times

07-03-2025

DETROIT — In Part 1 of our mailbag, we talked a lot about who will be on the Opening Day roster.
In Part 2, we'll turn to a few bigger-picture questions and go down a couple of fun rabbit holes.
Opening Day is only three weeks away.
Note: Submitted questions have been lightly edited for clarity and length.
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Which of these 2025 Tigers scenarios do you think is more likely, and which would be most indicative of a second straight playoff run: (a) infield defense that grades out at MLB average or (b) OPS vs. left-handed pitching that grades out at MLB average? — Ben D.
This is a fun question. And a hard one!
My gut is to say infield defense. And yet, the Tigers' infield graded out at minus-7 defensive runs saved last season. Their pitching staff was still excellent. Opponents hit .243 on groundballs against the Tigers last season, slightly below the league average of .249.
That feels a bit inexplicable to me, but the Tigers sustained that success over 162 games. From Aug. 11 on, they theoretically benefited from an even more ridiculous amount of batted-ball luck. But they sustained a league-best .247 opponents' BABIP for a 44-game stretch. I've been wondering if they've hacked into something with Stuff+ models that can actually make this stickier than we've previously believed.
That's all to say, maybe this team is capable of winning even without very good infield defense. I'd still argue the infield is an even bigger concern this year; it's not hard to envision having negative defenders at third, second and first.
But the Tigers might be able to combat some of that if their pitching staff can generate more strikeouts. They acquired pitchers such as John Brebbia and Tommy Kahnle in the bullpen with exactly that in mind.
A new face in the Tigers bullpen!
John Brebbia is settling in at Spring Training. pic.twitter.com/StkgLFF9C0
— Detroit Tigers (@tigers) March 6, 2025
If the pitching staff misses more bats and the offense takes a step forward — which would certainly mean improving on a lineup that ranked 26th in OPS against left-handed pitching (and still only 18th versus LHP after the trade deadline) — that could be a good recipe.
I have doubts about the Tigers replicating their pitching performance of last season. But if the offense can be league average over a whole year, they might not have to.
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Who do you see leading the Tigers in saves this season? — Patrick M.
Another tough question. Here are the team's saves leaders in the A.J. Hinch era:
2024: Jason Foley, 28
2023: Alex Lange, 26
2022: Gregory Soto, 30
2021: Gregory Soto, 18
I don't think anyone is going to suddenly have 40 saves for this team. Hinch is going to continue mixing and matching who gets the ninth inning based on how the game unfolds. Still, I'm not sure Foley is on track to reclaim a consistent ninth-inning role. I could see one of the Tigers' other hard-throwing relievers emerging as a better option.
Brebbia is an interesting addition but still has some things to sort out before he can be trusted with the game on the line. Will Vest doesn't get enough love and might be the favorite right now. But if Beau Brieske can spin his slider even a tad more consistently, he could emerge as a terrific ninth-inning candidate.
For the sake of answering the question, I'll go with Vest. But I'm not confident in that.
And for fun, here's a chaos option if things get weird later in the summer: Casey Mize.
Is there a mailbag-length answer for the plummet of Matt Manning and Mize from such high expectations as future aces? Injuries aside, was it another example of poor evaluation by the previous front office? — Will T.
This could probably be the subject of a 5,000-word article. But mailbag length?
The Tigers drafted Manning with the No. 9 pick in the 2016 MLB Draft. Data over the years shows that high school pitchers (particularly right-handers) are the riskiest draft demographic. They are easily the least likely to reach 10 career WAR. The Tigers, at the time, loved Manning's athleticism and projectability. But like many high school righties before him, he hasn't developed as expected, with injuries cutting into his progress.
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When Manning first got into the system, maturity and coachability were concerns, and you could argue that was a flaw in evaluation. Manning has grown a lot on a personal level since then. But he's a textbook example of why teams should be leery of using a top-10 pick on a high school pitcher. The Tigers took a similar gambit with Jackson Jobe, and maybe they'll hit on that one.
Mize is a tougher case to dissect. He was widely regarded as the best prospect in his class. I believe the majority of MLB teams would have drafted him first overall. But not many scouts were touting him as a future ace. He was viewed more as a high-floor starter with a wipeout splitter.
Some of the traits evaluators loved most about Mize — the splitter and consistent fastball command — have, for whatever reason, not fully translated to the MLB level. Injuries have set him back. But there's still a chance he could become a solid mid-rotation starter, which isn't entirely out of line with what the most realistic evaluators expected on draft day.
Also, Mize was considered the best player in what has proved to be a rather weak draft class. The San Francisco Giants have already DFA'd No. 2 pick Joey Bart. Some experts viewed Jarred Kelenic as the best fallback option. He went No. 6 in 2018 and hasn't met expectations.
There have been plenty of solid players from that draft class: Alec Bohm, Jonathan India, Logan Gilbert, Triston Casas and Shane McClanahan, among others. But I'm not sure a superstar was in the bunch.
And the story of Mize's career is likely far from finished. Just the other day, a scout texted me saying they'd never felt better about Mize.
What's the biggest difference between the Tigers' spring training this year and last year: the vibes/expectations, the talent/personnel or something else? — Noah G.
It's highly intangible, but I keep saying there's a different sense of confidence. Many of these young players have real experience now and know what winning tastes like. For as young and fun as the Tigers can be, there's also a businesslike vibe. I don't sense players going overboard on their own hype. But the expectations are raised, and these guys have a better understanding of what it takes to be a playoff team.
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Does it make any sense for the Tigers to have Tork take some reps in the outfield? — Hatim S.
I tend to think so. When the Tigers drafted Spencer Torkelson as a third baseman, I thought it made more sense to try him in a corner outfield spot, where he played in Cape Cod. A fun headline from May 2020: What if Spencer Torkelson can be an outfielder?
That said, I've been told the Tigers just don't see Torkelson as a viable outfielder. Even though positional flexibility would give him a much more palatable path to a roster spot, the team still wants him to improve his defense at first base.
Several people also asked for my impressions of Torkelson this spring. His setup in the box is noticeably different. The bat angle in proportion to his shoulders has changed. There's not quite a toe-tap but a subtle toe lift that looks a bit different. These are all efforts to get him on time and more athletic in the box. But all the changes are minor, and though Torkelson has connected a couple of times already this spring, I'm still concerned about the amount of middle pitches he misses.
I am a firm believer that 13 pitchers is too many. One always rots in the pen for days at a time. Would the Tigers consider carrying an extra right-handed bat instead to help their platoon issues early in the season? — Michael S.
This is probably a hard no. Hinch tends to be protective of his bullpen. Sometimes guys can indeed go days without pitching. But some of that is also a function of who is in the bullpen. There might not be a pitcher the Tigers want to avoid a la Kenta Maeda at points last season. Hinch loves having eight good options to call upon, and he will use all of them as situations dictate.
Also, you're only one bad outing from the bullpen suddenly looking taxed. If you don't have depth in the pen, one loss can quickly turn into three or four.
Even though there are ample off days early in the season, starters usually aren't going super deep into games in April. Therefore, I expect the Tigers to break with 13 pitchers and 13 position players.
(Top photo of Casey Mize: Nathan Ray Seebeck / Imagn Images)