After Hitting $4 Trillion, It Took Nvidia Just 1 Month to Gain Another $480 billion in Market Cap. Is $5 Trillion Inevitable?

Globe and Mail

4 hours ago

Key Points
Nvidia stays red hot, pushing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq toward all-time highs.
Going forward, gaining trillions in market cap will be easier on a percentage basis.
The chipmaker's sustained success depends on a handful of key customers.
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Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) has continued to soar higher after becoming the first company to surpass $4 trillion in market capitalization on July 9. On Aug. 7, Nvidia hit a new all-time intraday high and reached $4.48 trillion in market cap -- just shy of the $4.5 trillion mark.
Nvidia's meteoric rise isn't just a stock story; it's a market story. Nvidia is so large that it can single-handedly move the Nasdaq Composite or S&P 500 with a big gain. Gaining close to $500 billion in market value is like creating a company the size of Netflix out of thin air -- which is saying something, considering Netflix is the 16th-largest S&P 500 component by market cap. As Nvidia and its megacap peers go, so do broader market gains.
Here's why I fully expect the growth stock to surpass $5 trillion in market value and why Nvidia has a clearly defined runway for future success.
The power of percentages
Three years ago, Nvidia's market value was under half a trillion. It took a medley of investor optimism, earnings growth, and the dawn of a new age in artificial intelligence (AI) to pole-vault Nvidia over $4 trillion in market cap to become the most valuable company in the world. But Nvidia's road to $5 trillion and beyond will be much easier.
Going from $0.5 trillion to $4 trillion is an eightfold gain, whereas going from $4 trillion to $5 trillion is just a 25% gain. It's an unprecedented amount of value creation, but on a percentage basis it's not asking a lot over a few years. However, if Nvidia's earnings growth rate slows, investors may be less willing to pay such a premium price for the stock.
Nvidia commands a price-to-earnings ratio of 58 -- which is far higher than most of its megacap peers. But Nvidia is growing earnings much faster, so it can back up that valuation. However, if Nvidia were to slow down to levels of a company like Microsoft -- which has achieved 15% revenue growth over the last few years with net profit margins around 36% -- then Nvidia's valuation could compress.
The stock's P/E could come down, its earnings growth rate could slow, and it could still be an excellent investment, continuing to hit market-cap milestones. But the bigger question is, where are the earnings going to come from?
Nvidia's "big four"
Arguably the simplest reason why Nvidia can continue steadily growing over time is that its customers are some of the best companies in the world.
In Nvidia's quarterly 10-Q filings, the company typically has a section titled Concentration of Revenue. In Nvidia's most recent 10-Q from May -- which was the first quarter of its fiscal 2026 -- the company said that sales to one direct customer, Customer A, represented 16% of total revenue for the quarter. Customer B was 14%, sales to another direct customer were 13%, and a fourth customer was 11%.
All four customers' revenue was attributable to Nvidia's compute and networking segment -- which is primarily high-performance graphics processing units (GPUs) for data centers and associated hardware and software to handle AI workloads, like products that connect GPUs together and help the system communicate.
Combined, these customers made up a staggering 54% of total quarterly revenue. While Nvidia doesn't directly disclose who these customers are, it's highly likely they are Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta Platforms -- all of which are using Nvidia chips to power their AI data centers, infrastructure, and services.
Outside of these "big four," there are plenty of companies that are rapidly expanding their cloud and AI aspirations, like Oracle through Oracle Cloud Infrastructure. Tesla is a big Nvidia customer, using its chips for its autonomous driving models. OpenAI is also a major indirect customer of Nvidia through the Microsoft Azure OpenAI service, which is a platform for using and developing OpenAI models.
Normally, revenue concentration is a red flag because it means one or two customers can tank results if they pull back on spending. But in the case of Nvidia, it's arguably a strength because its top customers have exceptional balance sheets, growing earnings, and ample free cash flow. In other words, they have the resources and innovation pathways to steadily grow their spending over time, and in turn, contribute to Nvidia's earnings growth.
Nvidia needs AI spending to pay off
Nvidia's road to $5 trillion in market cap will be easier on a percentage basis now that it is hovering around the $4.5 trillion mark. However, for Nvidia to continue being a winning stock, its top customers have to get a worthwhile return on their investments. In other words, the AI market must continue to grow, and Nvidia must lead it from a compute and networking standpoint.
Therefore, Nvidia investors may want to consider connecting the dots by following what its top customers are saying in their investor presentations and quarterly results. If they remain enthusiastic about AI and continue boosting their budgets for it, then Nvidia stands to benefit. However, Nvidia's earnings and stock price could take a big hit if the spending cycle goes from expansion to a slowdown.
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Daniel Foelber has positions in Nvidia. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Netflix, Nvidia, Oracle, and Tesla. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.