What US Arms Export Review Means for Its Allies

Miami Herald

04-07-2025

The United States is reviewing the sending of military gear not just to Ukraine, but to countries across the world, the Pentagon has said, a fresh doubling down on the Trump administration's "America First" agenda, which appears to focus more on U.S. aid rather than lucrative arms deals.
However, the move highlights the strain exerted even on the world's largest defense exporter, as demand for military hardware in key areas, such as air defense and artillery, far outstrips supply, analysts say.
The U.S.'s vast military-industrial complex accounted for 43 percent of global arms exports between 2020 and 2024, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) said in March.
But with the global uptick in demand for equipment, "there's too little to go around," said Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, a senior fellow at the Belgian think tank, Bruegel.
The Pentagon review is a prudent stock-take, and one a long time coming for certain types of missiles and munitions, said Ed Arnold, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute think tank.
Yet it does pile pressure on countries actively at war in receipt of U.S. supplies, and could prompt swathes of Europe, which have not yet established their own production lines to pump out enough defense gear, to sit up a little straighter.
"We can't give weapons to everybody all around the world," the Department of Defense's chief spokesperson, Sean Parnell, said on Wednesday.
"We have to look out for America and defending our homeland," he told reporters.
Ukraine is the country most obviously impacted, and the Pentagon has not yet confirmed whether the U.S. has paused weapons shipments to other countries, according to The New York Times.
Although Kyiv is no longer as reliant on the United States as it was during the early stages of the war with Russia, U.S. donations continue to be important.
The U.S. has provided about $67 billion in military aid to Ukraine since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of its neighbor in February 2022, the State Department said in March.
Officials on Tuesday confirmed that the U.S. was holding back deliveries of military supplies to Ukraine after reports indicated that an evaluation of American munitions stockpiles had raised concerns over shortages. Kyiv's Defense Ministry publicly said it had not been officially told by the U.S. that deliveries of military aid would be stopped, and had "requested a telephone conversation" with American officials.
"We're always assessing our munitions and where we're sending them," Parnell said, adding that under the Biden administration, the U.S. was "giving away weapons and munitions without really thinking about how many we have."
Parnell said that the Pentagon would not provide any updates on the quantity or types of military supplies to Ukraine, nor any timelines for delivery. The delayed weapons reportedly include rounds for 155 mm howitzers, more than 100 Hellfire missiles and precision-guided rounds known as GMLRS, as well as dozens of Patriot missiles.
Air defense missiles, in particular the expensive interceptors for the vaunted U.S.-made Patriot systems, have always been at the top of Kyiv's wish list.
Ukrainian officials and analysts told Newsweek on Wednesday they were above all concerned about supplies of Patriot missiles.
While U.S. shelves are likely still brimming with equipment, the air defense missiles and artillery ammunition that have dominated aid packages will be running in shorter supply, said Pieter Wezeman, a senior researcher in SIPRI's arms transfers team. It is also a question of how full U.S. planners believe their shelves should be, Wezeman told Newsweek.
There has always been an understanding that the U.S. is "thin" on Patriot supplies, former Pentagon official Jim Townsend told Newsweek on Wednesday.
However, for Ukraine, there's "no alternative" against Russia's advanced ballistic missiles, Lesia Orobets, a former Ukrainian lawmaker deeply involved in Ukraine's air defense, told Newsweek.
Observers say Ukraine must now turn to its own industry, further boosting its ability to produce equipment, as well as rely on European partners who have supported Kyiv for years.
"Currently, Ukraine can compensate the lack of the U.S. supply by European sources," said Andrii Ziuz, a former chief executive of Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council and current head of technology at London-based company Prevail.
Europe itself is at a major evaluation point. The Pentagon's wording is ambiguous, and the review is unlikely to target the foreign military sales that keep America's industry afloat, experts say. However, the U.S. feeling the bite of shortages would not be a good sign for the rest of NATO.
Countries on the continent have been major customers of U.S. weapons and platforms for decades. Patriot, and more importantly, its interceptor missiles, are in high demand in Europe as well, Arnold said.
"This is going to put a real constraints on European air defense requirements," Arnold told Newsweek.
Senior Trump officials had pushed for European NATO members and Canada to dedicate 5 percent of their GDP to defense, a target that had seemed entirely unrealistic until the alliance pledged to meet this threshold in the coming years at NATO's summit last week.
Separately, the European Commission, the European Union's executive arm, announced in early March that it would mobilize €800 billion, or roughly $900 billion, in defense funding for member states under a plan dubbed "ReArm Europe."
It's a "nearly historical re-armament," said Kirkegaard.
The U.S. has also been quite clear that it expects Europe and Canada to continue purchasing American weapons, while still investing in their own defense. This was greeted with somewhat mixed reactions from Europe, although there is a broad consensus that U.S. exports to the continent will dip as Europe builds up its own industries.
"It's very clear that the U.S. exports will go down very significantly," Kirkegaard said.
However, expanding industrial capacity in Europe is still in the early stages and may be unable to meet demand within the timeframe when key capabilities, such as air defense, could be needed.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said last week that the alliance will invest in a "five-fold increase" in air defense capabilities, as well as "thousands more tanks and armoured vehicles" and millions of artillery rounds.
"Europe and Ukraine needs to double—or triple down—not only on domestic production in Ukraine, but very much on improving air defense capability across Europe and in a way that is not dependent on the United States," Kirkegaard said.
Patriot missiles, among other types of American-made equipment, are also very much sought after in Israel, particularly after waves of Iranian ballistic missile strikes during what has been termed the "12 day war" last month.
Israel also utilizes other systems, such as the American Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) batteries, to intercept ballistic missiles.
The U.S. is far more involved in Israel's air defense compared to Ukraine. U.S. troops have repeatedly been involved in shooting down Iranian missiles heading for Israel, and the Trump administration has been far more staunchly supportive of Israel compared to Ukraine.
"It's very clear that Israel is the top priority for critical U.S. military supplies of high-end air defense," said Kirkegaard.
Israel also has a very strong domestic industry, a major exporter in its own right. Israel's Defense Ministry said last month that it had increased its defense exports for a fourth consecutive year in 2024, with significant jumps in sales to Europe.
There was "significant growth" in contracts signed off with European nations, which accounted for 54 percent of the deals closed last year, Israel said in early June. This figure stood at 35 percent in 2023, according to the Israeli government.
Missiles, rockets and air defense systems accounted for almost half of all deals, a surge from 36 percent in the previous year, the defense ministry said.
Yet Israel, too, needs to build up its stocks of ballistic missile interceptors, Kirkegaard said.
"Everyone needs to produce more of these things because of the scale of the ballistic threats," he said.
While Iran and Russia have fired high numbers of ballistic missiles at Israel and Ukraine, North Korea has sent its own ballistic missiles for battlefield use and testing by Russian forces. Pyongyang's missiles have since become far more accurate, according to Ukrainian intelligence.
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