Russia signals it's ready to go to war with West to protect vital shadow fleet

Telegraph

25-05-2025

On the bridge of the Jaguar, the ship radio crackles into life.
'This is [an] Estonian warship,' says a voice speaking in English. 'Follow my instructions. Alter your course to 105 immediately.'
So begins the most nerve-wracking confrontation with a Russian shadow fleet vessel since the start of the war.
'We are met by helicopters,' says a voice speaking in Russian on board the Jaguar, a 20-year-old tanker en route back to Russia from the Indian port of Sikka, where it had likely deposited a sanctions-busting cargo of oil.
In the video taken from the bridge, Hindi-speaking crew members worriedly report that a 'military vessel' is also heading towards the stern of the ship.
The cause of the Jaguar's troubles lay in its lack of an international flag, a prerequisite for maritime navigation and the surest legal ground for a boarding operation.
Days earlier, it had taken down a Gabonese standard, shortly before the ship was sanctioned by the UK.
The clip published online by Margarita Simonyan, the chief of state-owned RT, formerly Russia Today, has been edited to make the timeline of events unclear.
But what is known is that the Jaguar refused the order of the Estonian navy – and ploughed on towards its destination, the Russian port Primorsk.
An Estonian patrol vessel, EML Raju, aborted its plan to board the far-larger craft and carry out an inspection.
Had it followed through, the situation might have spiralled because also visible in the clip is the arrival of a Russian Su-35 fighter jet – the first time Moscow has sent military forces to protect the rusty fleet it relies on to fund its war effort.
Elisabeth Braw, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, a Washington-based think tank, said: 'Russia has crossed the Rubicon now. It is showing that the shadow fleet is important enough that it's willing to publicly admit that it is linked to the government.'
During the May 13 confrontation, the Russian jet entered Estonian airspace for around a minute. It was met swiftly by Portuguese F-16s from the Nato air policing mission.
But the incident is rippling alarm across the West and inviting questions over just how far its relatively sparse naval forces can challenge the fleet of uninsured tankers that criss-cross its seas every day.
Gintautas Paluckas, the Lithuanian prime minister, said that while Russia's military protection of Baltic Sea tankers revealed nothing we 'couldn't or shouldn't have known', it showed that 'the risk of serious escalation is increasing with every step'.
At least half of the seaborne oil sold by Russia is carried on its shadow fleet, providing a huge chunk of the £740 billion that Moscow has earned from fossil fuel exports since February 2022.
The flow, however, has lately been disrupted by western sanctions.
Some 706 vessels have now been sanctioned across the EU, UK and US, according to research by shipping journal Lloyds List, which is around ten per cent of the total tanker fleet at sea. The share of Russian oil exported by the shadow fleet is falling, down to 53 per cent in April, according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, a Helsinki-based think tank.
On April 11, Estonia detained the Kiwala, another shadow fleet vessel flying without a flag. On Christmas day, Finnish commandos boarded the Eagle-S, suspected of severing under-sea cables.
In response, the Kremlin is signalling that it is ready to fight for the smooth passage of its black gold.
Dmitry Peskov, its chief spokesman, said the deployment of an Su-35 showed Russia was ready to respond 'harshly' and warned that 'all measures' could be taken to prevent what he called piracy.
Nikolai Patrushev, a senior Putin aide, warned: 'Hotheads in London and Brussels need to understand this clearly.'
In mid-April, Russia's Baltic Fleet carried out a series of drills explicitly showcasing its ability to prevent the boarding of civilian ships. Eleven warships and a kilo-class submarine took part, alongside fighter jets.
The coastal states are 'winning' in their efforts to curtail the shadow fleet because they have 'clearly rattled Russia', according to Ms Braw. But Russia's military deployment is now 'causing concern, simply because they have no way of knowing how any incident will develop'.
Estonia's navy is formed from just eight ships. It was outmatched on May 13, Juri Saska, the former commander, told news outlet ERR. The boarding operation was called off because it was deemed 'unreasonable or unfeasible', he said, adding: 'The navy doesn't have the kind of equipped, armed vessels needed to carry out a forced operation like this.'
Sidharth Kaushal, a research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, a London-based think tank, said Moscow lacks the naval strength to escort every one of its shadow fleet vessels. However, it is likely to intervene in situations where a new threshold is set.
Estonia's interdictions of the two Russian shadow fleet vessels have come in the waters of its Economic Exclusion Zone (EEZ), which stretches 200 miles off the coast and provides sovereign rights to exploration and maritime conversation. Any serious effort to interfere with passage through such waters would pose a serious problem for Moscow.
Hanno Pevkur, Estonia's defence minister, has called for all sanctioned ships to be barred from entering EEZ waters, as they are blocked from European ports. But this is considered a non-starter because it would unravel the international principle of freedom of navigation.
Kestutis Budrys, the Lithuanian foreign minister, believes that the West should at least tighten the system. He has also called for Nato to expand its Baltic Sentry programme from protecting undersea infrastructure to countering the shadow fleet.
Margus Tsahkna, the Estonian foreign minister, told The Telegraph: 'Controlling the shadow fleet is not just about maritime security – it's about striking the core of the fuel of Russia's military operations.'
If Russia wants to step up its military protection of the shadow fleet, it has several options, according to Mr Kaushal. Its vessels could turn on their firing radar, the last step before opening fire. They could seek to block boarding operations, or jam them electronically.
Western ships might also be detained on entering Russian waters. One Greek vessel was briefly held when it did so on a pre-approved route shortly after the Jaguar incident, although the circumstances there remain unclear.
Between flagless vessels, the entry of the Russian military and growing western resolve, the sea's cargo routes have rarely been so dangerous.
And Tom Sharpe, a former Royal Navy officer, thinks the problem is not going away any time soon. He said: 'This is such a difficult problem, given the size of the ocean, the number of warships we don't have, the number of dark fleet ships they do have, and the fact that we insist on playing by the rules.'